Zero Tolerance: Repression and Political Violence on China's New Silk Road

301 Pages·2022·6.184 MB·English

by  Philip B. K. Potter, Chen Wang

Zero Tolerance
China’s mistreatment of its Uyghur minority has drawn international con-
demnation and sanctions. The repression gripping Xinjiang is also hugely
costly to China in Renminbi, personnel, and stifled economic productivity.
Despite this, the Chinese Communist Party persists in its policies. Why?
Drawing on extensive original data, Potter and Wang demonstrate inse-
curities about the stability of the regime and its claim to legitimacy moti-
vate Chinese policies. These perceived threats to core interests drive the
ferocity of the official response to Uyghur nationalism. The result is harsh
repression, sophisticated media control, and selective international mili-
tary cooperation. China’s growing economic and military power means
that the country’s policies in Xinjiang and Central Asia have global impli-
cations. Zero Tolerance sheds light on this problem, informing policy-
makers, scholars, and students about an emerging global hotspot destined
to play a central role in international politics in years to come.
philip b. k. potter is Associate Professor of Politics and Founding
Director of the National Security Policy Center in the Frank Batten School
of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia.
chen wang is Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics and
Philosophy at the University of Idaho. Prior to UoI, he was an America in
the World Consortium (AWC) Postdoctoral Fellow at Duke University, a
visiting scholar in the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George
Washington University, and a research fellow affiliated with the National
Security Policy Center in the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Pub-
lic Policy at the University of Virginia. He studies international security
and foreign policy.

Zero Tolerance
Repression and Political Violence
on China’s New Silk Road
philip b. k. potter
University of Virginia
chen wang
University of Idaho
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www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781009100380
DOI: 10.1017/9781009115247
© Philip B. K. Potter and Chen Wang 2023
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2023
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Potter, Philip B. K., author. | Wang, Chen, 1989– author.
Title: Zero tolerance : repression and political violence on China’s new
Silk Road / Philip B. K. Potter, University of Virginia, Chen Wang,
University of Virginia.
Description: Cambridge ; New York, NY : Cambridge University Press,
2023. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022023462 | ISBN 9781009100380 (hardback) |
ISBN 9781009115247 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Uighur (Turkic people) – Violence against – China – Xinjiang
Uygur Zizhiqu. | Uighur (Turkic people) – Government policy – China – Xinjiang
Uygur Zizhiqu. | Political violence – China – Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu. |
Muslims – Persecutions – China – Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu. |
China – Ethnic relations. | China – Politics and government – 2002–
Classification: LCC DS731.U4 P68 2023 |
DDC 305.894/32309516–dc23/eng/20220810
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022023462
ISBN 978-1-009-10038-0 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-009-11490-5 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of
URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
To my girls – PBKP
To my wife – CW

Contents
List of Figures page x
List of Maps xii
List of Tables xiii
Acknowledgments xiv
1 Introduction 1
A “Core Interest” 2
Political Violence in China 5
Policy Implications 9
Perspective 13
Xinjiang 16
Uyghur Separatism and Militancy 21
Plan for the Book 27
2 Political Violence in Xinjiang 30
Contextualizing Repression and Political Violence
in Xinjiang 31
Phase 1 – Armed Rebellion (1949–1958) 36
Phase 2 – Civil Resistance (1977–1989) 40
Phase 3 – The Escalation of Violence (1990–2014) 43
Phase 4 – Repression and Internationalization (2014–) 61
The Evolution of China’s Internationalization
of the Xinjiang Struggle 68
Conclusion 71
3 Political Sensitivities 73
Regime Type, Information Control, and Terrorism 75
China’s Media Dilemma 77
Media Coverage (and Censorship) of Political
Violence in China 88
vii
viii Contents
Official Media Coverage of Uyghur-Initiated
Violence 91
Assessing the Timing of Official Coverage 94
Conclusion 104
4 Securitization and Repression in Xinjiang 106
Security in Xinjiang 109
The Securitization of Xinjiang 114
Strategic Reorientation: Ethnic Mingling
and De-extremification 119
Understanding the Strategic Reorientation 126
The Path Forward 140
5 Foreign Policy 145
Counterterrorism in Chinese Foreign Policy 148
Managing the Benefits of Engagement and the
Risks of Blowback 151
Joint Counterterrorism Exercises 156
Assessing China’s CT-JMEs 164
Digging Deeper 169
Findings 171
Conclusion 173
6 Conclusion 175
What the Response to Political Violence
Reveals about China 177
Extended Repression 178
International Headwinds 186
What China Teaches Us about Repression
and Political Violence 193
Where to from Here? 195
Appendices 197
Appendix to Chapter 2 197
Data on Uyghur Political Violence:
1990–2014 197
Alternative Models for Assessing the
Timing of Violence 198
Robustness 201
Contents ix
A ppendix to Chapter 3 205
Summary Statistics and Nonparametric
Modeling 205
Tests of Proportional Hazards Assumption 207
Results from Models 4–7 208
Results from Models 8–13 209
Logit Models 217
Robustness Checks: Ethnic Violence in
China Database 218
A ppendix to Chapter 4 221
Security Expenditure Data 221
The Model 222
Robustness Checks 227
A ppendix to Chapter 5 230
Summary Statistics 230
Statistical Results 230
Robustness Checks 235
Bibliography 240
Index 276