World Economic Performance: Past, Present and Future

442 Pages·2013·3.94 MB·English

by  D. S. Prasada Rao

World Economic Performance
Dedicated to the memory of
Angus Maddison
scholar, mentor, great friend and a well wisher
who sadly passed away during the preparation of the
manuscript
Angus Maddison, 1926–2010
Friend or stranger, stop and shed a tear:
Gentle Angus Maddison lies here.
Joining the social sciences with art,
He took human misery to heart
Andmixedtime, space and math to set men free
From want. Angus hated poverty.
A poem by
Roger Dickinson-Brown
World Economic
Performance
Past, Present and Future
Essays in celebration of the life and work of Angus Maddison
Edited by
D.S. Prasada Rao
School of Economics
The University of Queensland
Brisbane, Australia
Bart van Ark
The Conference Board
New York, USA
Faculty of Economics and Business
University of Groningen
Groningen, The Netherlands
Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, US
© D.S. Prasada Rao and Bart van Ark 2013
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical
or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the
publisher.
Published by
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
The Lypiatts
15 Lansdown Road
Cheltenham
Glos GL50 2JA
UK
Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
William Pratt House
9 Dewey Court
Northampton
Massachusetts 01060
USA
A catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Control Number: 2012930566
This book is available electronically in the ElgarOnline.com
Economics Subject Collection, E-ISBN 978 1 78195 355 6
ISBN 978 1 84844 848 3
Printed and bound by MPG PRINTGROUP, UK
4
0
Contents
Contributors vii
Acknowledgements ix
1. Introduction 1
D.S. Prasada Rao and Bart van Ark
2. Six Transformations in China: 960–2030 7
Angus Maddison
3. The Needham Puzzle, the Weber Question and China’s
Miracle: Long Term Performance since the Sung Dynasty 42
Justin Yifu Lin
4. An Indian Miracle? 88
Deepak Lal
5. Analysis of Russian Performance since 1990 and Future
Outlook 111
Stanislav Menshikov
6. Japan’s Alternating Phases of Growthand Future Outlook 136
Kyoji Fukao and Osamu Saito
7. Making the International System Work for the Platinum Age 162
Ross Garnaut
8. Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth in Indonesia 193
Pierre van der Eng
9. Explaining Success and Failure in Economic Development 227
Adam Szirmai
10. Past, Present and Future Economic Growth in Latin America 268
André A. Hofman and Francisco Villarreal
11. Europe’s Productivity Performance in Comparative
Perspective: Trends, Causes and Projections 290
Bart van Ark,Mary O’Mahonyand Marcel P. Timmer
v
vi Contents
12. Revisiting U.S. Productivity Growth over the Past Century
with a View of the Future 317
Robert J. Gordon
Epilogue:Life and Work of Angus Maddison
Confessions of a Chiffrephile 363
Angus Maddison
Research Objectives and Results, 1952–2002 400
Angus Maddison
A Story Behind Each Number –Angus Maddison (1926–
2010) 412
Derek Blades, Bart van Ark and Harry X. Wu
Index 420
Contributors
Bart van Ark
Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, USA and Professor of
Economics, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of
Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Derek Blades
Consultant in economic statistics and statistical office management, Blades
Consultancy Services,28 Bd.Eugène Tripet, 06400 Cannes, France.
Pierre van der Eng
School of Management, Marketing & International Business, College of
Business and Economics, The Australian National University, Canberra,
Australia.
Kyoji Fukao
Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University,
Kunitachi City, Tokyo, Japan.
Ross Garnaut
Professor of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Robert J. Gordon
Stanley G. Harris Professor of the Social Sciences, Northwestern University,
Evanston, Illinois, USA; NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA and CEPR, London,
UK.
André A. Hofman
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago,
Chile.
Deepak Lal
James S. Coleman Professor of International Development Studies,
University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Angus Maddison
As the Manuscript was prepared, Angus Maddison, Visiting Professor,
United Nations University (MERIT), Maastricht, Netherlands and Professor
Emeritus, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands, sadly passed
away on 27th April 2010.
Stanislav Menshikov
Moscow School of Economics,Moscow State University, Moscow, U.S.S.R.
vii
viii Contributors
Mary O’Mahony
Professor of International Industrial Economics, Birmingham Business
School,University House,Birmingham,U.K.
D.S. Prasada Rao
Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Osamu Saito
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi City,
Tokyo, Japan.
Adam Szirmai
Professorial Fellow, UNU-MERIT and Professor of Development
Economics, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht
University,Maastricht,The Netherlands.
Marcel P.Timmer
Professor of Economics, Groningen Growth and Development Centre,
University of Groningen, Groningen,TheNetherlands.
Francisco Villarreal
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago,
Chile.
Harry X. Wu
Professor of Economics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi
University, Tokyo, Japan.
Justin Yifu Lin
Senior Vice President, Development Economics, and Chief Economist, The
World Bank, Washington DC, USA.
Acknowledgements
Our sincere thanks are due to all the contributors to this volume for the time
and effort they have put into the preparation and subsequent revisions of their
chapters. But this book would not have been possible without constant
encouragement and involvement by Late Professor Angus Maddison who
was involved in this project right from the conception stage. We are deeply
sorry that Angus has not lived to see the completion of the project and the
manuscript in print. We sincerely hope that the completed version would
have met with his approval. We are also thankful to the Publisher, Edward
Elgar, for making it possible to include additional material on the Life and
Work of Angus Maddison, and to Managing Editors of The Review of Income
and Wealth for allowing us to reprint Angus’ obituary by Derek Blades,
Harry X. Wu and Bart van Ark. Our sincere thanks are due to Roger
Dickinson-Brown, a long time friend of Angus, for writing the poem. Finally,
we thank Visala Rao who has persevered with the difficult job of formatting
and proof reading of various chapters.
D.S. Prasada Rao
Bart van Ark
Editors
ix