Who’s Driving Electric Cars: Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use of Plug-in Electric Cars

305 Pages·2020·10.206 MB·English

by  Marcello Contestabile (editor), Gil Tal (editor), Thomas Turrentine (editor)

Lecture Notes in Mobility
Marcello Contestabile
Gil Tal
Thomas Turrentine   Editors
Who’s
Driving
Electric Cars
Understanding Consumer Adoption and
Use of Plug-in Electric Cars
Lecture Notes in Mobility
Series Editor
Gereon Meyer, VDI/VDE Innovation und Technik GmbH, Berlin, Germany
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11573
Marcello Contestabile Gil Tal
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Thomas Turrentine
Editors
’
Who s Driving Electric Cars
Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use
of Plug-in Electric Cars
123
Editors
Marcello Contestabile Gil Tal
Centrefor Environmental Policy Institute of Transportation Studies
Imperial CollegeLondon University of California, Davis
London,UK Davis, CA,USA
KingAbdullah Petroleum Studies
andResearch Center
Riyadh, SaudiArabia
ThomasTurrentine
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA,USA
ISSN 2196-5544 ISSN 2196-5552 (electronic)
Lecture Notesin Mobility
ISBN978-3-030-38381-7 ISBN978-3-030-38382-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38382-4
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Foreword
Thisbookistimely—andneeded.Technologywillcontinuetoimprove,andbattery
costs will continue to drop. Engineers are making impressive progress. What
remains most uncertain is consumer behavior and policy. Which consumers in
which situations will buy which types of electric vehicles—battery and plug-in
hybrid vehicles, as well as fuel cell electric vehicles? And what might or could
policymakers do to accelerate sales—for small and large electric vehicles? The
future of electric vehicles is firmly linked to policy and behavior.
Asaresearcherandpolicymaker,Icloselyfollowelectricvehiclehappeningsin
China, Europe, and Japan and advise many car companies. For a variety of eco-
nomic, environmental, and political reasons, it is crystal clear to me that electric
vehicleswillreplacevirtuallyallcombustionenginecarsandprobablymosttrucks.
It is a question of when, not if. EV market shares are increasing everywhere,
automakersarerollingoutanexpandingarrayofelectricmodels,supplychainsare
inplace,andgovernmentsinalmostallmajorcarmarketshaveadoptedaggressive
policies.
Within this sweeping transition are many hugely critical details, though. What
typesofvehiclesatwhatpriceswillbemostcompellingtobuyers?Howimportant
are range anxiety and public availability of electric chargers? How do consumers
trade off less cost for greater range? We are all different, of course. How do these
behaviors and attitudes vary across young and old, urban and rural, and male and
female,aswellasacrossdifferentpersonalitytypes?Shouldautomakersemphasize
pure battery EVs, or plug-inhybridEVs—or even fuel cell EVs? And how should
policymakers respond? What types of incentives might they offer and when? And
howmuchshouldtheyinvestinpubliccharging?Whereshouldchargersbeplaced
and should they be fast chargers? None of us know exactly how all this will play
out. But the more we learn and understand, the smarter our policy and investment
decisions will be.
What we do know, as indicated by many authors in this book, is that the
transition will be slow, unless the following happens.
v
vi Foreword
Challenge #1: Battery (and hydrogen and fuel cell) costs must continue to fall.
Today’s EVs are still considerably more expensive to produce than gasoline cars,
even with plummeting battery costs—especially so in the case of larger SUVs and
pickup trucks. Automakers price today’s EVs below cost to sell them, satisfy
governmentmandates,andhelpmeetaggressivefuelefficiencyandgreenhousegas
emission standards.
Challenge #2: Political will. Automakers are making massive investments in
EVs. But apart from Tesla and some Chinese manufacturers, the large automakers
are mostly producing just enough to satisfy government policies and build initial
supplychains.Politiciansandregulatorsneedtoboostawholerangeofpolicies—
fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission regulations, consumer purchase
incentives,morevehiclechargers—tosignaltobothautomakersandconsumersthat
the nations are resolutely committed to electrifying most or all vehicles.
Challenge #3: Consumer embrace of EVs. Consumers are cautious about pur-
chasing expensive, new products. Even when EV prices are lower than for com-
parablegasolinecars—assometimes occursbecauseofregulatorydemands—sales
can be slow. The authors of this book provide state-of-the-art insights into con-
sumer behavior and much useful guidance and insight about which policies are
most effective.
How exactly the transition to the battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric
vehicles will unfold is unknown and unknowable. It will vary greatly from one
region to another. Some strategies and paths are more expensive and complicated
than others. But generally, the best policy approach is to provide substantial
incentives to consumers initially, assure that a network of public chargers and
hydrogen stations is prominently accessible, impose regulations and policies on
automakers to motivate investments and sales, and be adaptive and agile as con-
sumer preferences, technological innovations, and industry investments evolve.
Authors of this book provide a solid understanding of consumers needed to
inform and design policies. While useful insights can be gained from previous
experiences with other technologies such as renewable energy, it is essential to
recognize that the EV market is highly heterogeneous, that early adoption is not
necessarilyagoodguideforwhatwillfollow,andthatmarketsuccesswillrelyon
policies that are responsive to the complexities of consumer behavior.
The authors of this book test their insights by scanning and evaluating experi-
ences around the world. They lay the foundation for crafting well-designed mea-
sures that are adaptive and durable enough to bridge the transition to a sustainable
market.
Davis, CA, USA Daniel Sperling
October 2019
Daniel Sperling is the author of Three Revolutions: Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric
VehiclestoaBetterFuture(2018).HeisalsoFoundingDirectoroftheInstituteofTransportation
StudiesandBluePlanetPrizeProfessorofEngineeringandEnvironmentalScienceandPolicyat
theUniversityofCalifornia,Davis.HeisamemberoftheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the support of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies
and Research Center (KAPSARC) through its sponsorship of the Hybrid and
Electric Vehicle Technology Collaboration Programme (HEV-TCP) of the
International Energy Agency. As a sponsor of the HEV-TCP, KAPSARC initiated
and led the Task 36 “Consumer Adoption and Use of EVs” of which this book is
the main deliverable.
We also acknowledge the kind support of the HEV-TCP members and secre-
tariat to Task 36 and this book.
vii
Contents
Introduction: Understanding the Development of the Market
for Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Marcello Contestabile and Thomas Turrentine
North America
Electric Cars in California: Policy and Behavior Perspectives . . . . . . . . 11
Gil Tal, Ken Kurani, Alan Jenn, Debapriya Chakraborty, Scott Hardman
and Dahlia Garas
WhatConversationsBetweenPEVOwnersandOwnersofNon-PEVs
in California Tell Us About Sustaining a Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Ken Kurani
Gasoline Savings from Electric Vehicles in the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Tamara L. Sheldon and Rubal Dua
The Present and Future Market for PEVs in Canada: Evidence
from a Mixed-Method Research Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Jonn Axsen and Zoe Long
Europe
Norway—The World Leader in BEV Adoption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Erik Figenbaum
Plug-in (Hybrid) Electric Vehicle Adoption in the Netherlands:
Lessons Learned. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Rick Wolbertus and Robert van den Hoed
What Can Driving Patterns Reveal About the Suitability of PEVs
in Sweden? Analysis and Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Frances Sprei
ix
x Contents
Beyond Consumer Innovators: Adoption of Plug-in Vehicles
by Mainstream Consumers in the U.K. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Stephen Skippon and George Beard
Electric Vehicle Adoption in Germany: Current Knowledge
and Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Patrick Plötz and Elisabeth Dütschke
China
China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will
It Continue?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Shiqi Ou, Zhenhong Lin, Xin He, Steven Przesmitzki, Zhixin Wu,
Jihu Zheng, Renzhi Lv and Liang Qi
Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Research on Consumer in Six Cities
in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
Yan Xing, Gil Tal and Yunshi Wang
Conclusions
Lessons Learned and Future Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
Marcello Contestabile