What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? [electronic resource] : an interim assessment, Paris, 2nd September 2008, 11th Paris time

2009·0.49 MB·English

by  Elmeskov, Jorgen

OECD
Whatistheeconomicoutlook
forOECDcountries?
Aninterimassessment
Paris,2"**September2008
llhParistime
JorgenElmeskov
ActingHeadofEconomicsDepartment
:
1. Latempetesurlesmarchesdecapitaux,lereplidesmarchesimmobiliersetlachertedesmatierespremieres
continuentdepesersurlacroissancemondialetoutenevoluantrapidement
• LesbanquessemblentavoirenregistrealeurbilanLessenlieldesperleslieesauxlitresadossesadesprels
immobiliersahaulrisque.Lesperturbationsfinancierespersistantessemblentdeplusenplusrefleterdes
signesdefaiblessedeLeconomiereelle,faiblesseelle-memeenparlieinduileparladiminutiondeLoiTre
decreditetlabaisseduprixdesactifs.LaprofondeuretLampleurdefinitivesdelacrisefinancieresont
cependantencoreincertaines,lerisqueeventueldenouvellespertessurlesoperationsdefinancementdu
logementetdelaconstructionrestantpreoccupant.
• Lereplidesmarchesdulogementsepoursuit,lareductiondeLoffredecreditaccentumitsansdouteles
pressionsencesens.AuxEtaLs-Unis,leprixdeslogementscontinuedebaisser,cequifaitplanerlamenace
dedefaillancesetdeconfiscationssupplementairesquirisquentelles-memesdepesersurlesprixet
d'amplifierlespertessurprets.Encequiconcemelaconstructioncependantonper9oitquelquessignesde
stabilisation,lespermisdcconstruireetlesventesdelogementsneufsayantcessedebaisseretleparede
logementsinvendusdiminuant.EnEurope,lereculdesprixetdefactivitedanslesecteurdela
constructionscmblcgagnerIcDancmark,flrlandc,1‘EspagncctIcRoyaumc-Uni,tandisqueladecrue
sensibledesvolumesdetransactionsembleannoncerdesreculsailleurs.
• Leprixdupetroles’estinscritenbaisseparrapportauxpicsatteintsverslemilieudefannee,etcesous
Leffetd'unralentisscmentdelademandeetd'uneproductionrecorddespaysdeLOPEP.SurIcfrontde
Loffredepetrole,lasituationrestecependanttendue,cequicontribueaLinstabilitedesprix.Lesprixdes
autresproduitsdebase,notammentdcLalimentation,semblentplusstablestoutensesituantadesniveaux
eleves.Lesprixdesdenreesalimentairesvontsansdouteconnattreunedetentedanslaperiodequivient,la
secheresseseterminantdanscertainspaysexportateursetlaproductioncommen9antaseredresserdansle
secteurdeLalimentation.
2. S'appuyantsurdesindicateursconjoncturels,lesmodelesdeprojectionacourttermedeLOCDElaissent
entrevoirunephasedefaiblessedefactivitejusqu'alafindecetteannee.Toutefois,Lexperiencelimiteeque
Lonadecertainsdesprincipauxdeterminantsdelaconjonctureactuelle,ainsiquelesincertitudesentourant
certainesinfluencesspecifiques,contribueadonneruneimageparticulierementflouedelasituation.AuxEtats-
Unis,Lincertituderelativealagra\itedecettephasedefaiblessetoucheenparticulieralavitessealaquelleles
effetsdesmesurestemporairesdestimulationbudgetairevontsedissiper.Danslazoneeuroetdanssestrois
principaleseconomiesainsiqu'auRoyaume-Uni,factivitedevraitglobalementstagner.AuJaponenfin,onne
s’attendqu'aunrebondpartielapreslabaisseduPIBenregistreeau2®trimestre.
r3.eveLneussfroeretlessdheasuscsoenssodmesmaptreiuxrdsedLaennscrtgoiueteetladezoLnaelidmeenLtOatCiDoEn.onLterselmaenscuereLisnfsltaattiiostniqguleosbadleeLeitnfrloagtnieonsusroulse-s
jacentesesontaussiorienteesalahaussedanslaplupartdesgrandeseconomiesdeLOCDE,reflelantenparlie
ladiffusiondeprixpluselevesdesmatierespremieres.Jusqu'ici,lesaugmentationsdesalairessemblentavoir
eteglobalementmaitrisees.Silesprixdesmatierespremieresdemeurentaleursniveauxrecents,enreplidansle
casdupetrole,onpents'attendreaunecertainemoderationdeLinflationtantglobalequesous-jacente.
4. LeseconomiesduG-7presententdesconditionsdifferentesauregarddefactiondespouvoirspublics.Aux
Etats-Unis,Linflationsous-jacenteestfortemaissembleneplusaccclereretlephenomenegrandissantdesous-
emploidescapacitesconstitueraunfacteurdedesinflation.Comptetenudesconditionsdefavorablesinduites
parlescontraintesfinancieres,cclasembleIcgitimcrlesmesuresactucllcsd'expansion.L'inflationsous-jacente
augmenteregulierementdanslazoneeurodepuisuncertaintemps,cequiindiquequ'ilfautreduirelestensions
surlescapacites.Enconsequence,pourlemoment,ilneparaitguereutiledechangerlesorientationsactuelles
depolitiqueseconomiques.Silanecessited'assoupliroudedurcirlesconditionsmacroeconomiquesvenaita
sefairejour,e’estlapolitiquemonelairequidevraitconstituerLinstrumentprivilegieaceteffet.AuJapon,
differentsindicateursdcLinflationsous-jacentediffusentdessignauxcontrastes,tandisqueladeteriorationdu
moraldeschefsd'entreprisesainsiquelanecessitedesepremunircentrelerisquededeflationplaidenten
favourd'unmaintiendustatu-quomonetaire.
2
o1n.gFlionbaanlcigarlowmtahrkwehtilteuramtoitlh,ehsoaumseintgimmearevkoeltvdinogwnrtaupirdnlsy:andhighcommoditypricescontinuetobeardown
Banksappeartohaverecognizedmostofthelossesandwrite-downsrelatedtosub-primebased
securities.Continuedfinancialturmoilappearstoreflectincreasinglysignsofweaknessinthereal
economy,itselfpartlyaproductoflowercreditsupplyandassetprices.Theeventualdepthandextent
offinancialdisruptionisstilluncertain,however,withpotentialfurtherlossesonhousingand
constructionfinancebeingonesourceofconcern.
Thedownturninhousingmarketsisstillunfolding,withreducedcreditsupplylikelyaddingto
pressures.UShousepricescontinuetofall,threateningfurtherdefaultsandforeclosuresthatmayagain
depresspricesandboostcreditlosses.Asregardsconstruction,however,therearesomehintsof
eventualstabilisationwithpermitsandsalesofnewhomeshavingceasedtofallandinventoriesof
unsoldhousescomingdown.InEurope,downturnsinpricesandconstructionactivityappeartobe
spreadingbeyondDenmark,Ireland,SpainandtheUnitedKingdom,withsharplylowertransaction
volumeslikelyaprecursorofdownturnselsewhere.
Thepriceofoilhasfallenfrompeaksreachedaroundthemiddleoftheyearinresponsetoslower
demandgrowthandrecordproductionfromOPEC.Oilsupplyconditionsremaintight,however,
contributingtovolatileprices.Pricesofothercommodities-notablyfood-appeartohavesteadiedat
highlevels.Foodcommoditypricesmayeaseintheperiodaheadasdroughtsendinsomefood-
exportingcountriesandashigherfoodproductioncomesonstream.
2. Basedonincominghigh-frequencyindicators,OECDshort-termforecastingmodelspointtoweak
activitythroughtheendoftheyear.However,limitedexperiencewithsomeofthemaindriversofthe
currentconjunctureaswellasuncertaintyaboutsomespecificinfluencesmakeforaparticularlyunclear
picture.IntheUnitedStates,uncertaintyastotheextentofweaknesshingesimportantlyonhowrapidly
theeffectsoftemporaryfiscalstimuluswillfade.Intheeuroareaanditsthreelargesteconomies,aswell
basaciknftrheomUntihtee2d"^Kqiunagrdteorm,falalctiinvGitDyPisifsoerxepseecetnedt.oremainbroadlyflat.AndinJapanonlyapartialbounce-
3cl.aorngseSuhmOaerErpCsiDanccrreeocasossneotsmheiineOse,EneCpraDgrytalryaenard.effSltoeaocttdiisnptgriciatclheesmehoaansvgueoriebnsogoosffteeuednddhteehrarldoyliuingngheioinnfffllhaaittgiihoonenrhaacnvodemsmaaolpsdpoiedtdryirfeptarelidcieunsp.coiSnmoemsofasortf,
wageincreasesappeartohavebeenbroadlycontained.Ifcommoditypricesaresustainedattheirrecent,
andincasessuchasoil,lowerlevelssomemoderationofbothheadlineandunderlyinginflationistobe
expected.
4. TheG7economiesfacedifferentpolicyenvironments. IntheUnitedStates,underlyinginflationis
highbutappearsnottohavedriftedupfurtherandwideningslackwillbeadisinflationaryforce.With
headwindsfromfinancialconstraints,thisappearstovindicateexistingexpansionarypolicies.Underlying
inflationhasbeenrisingsteadilyintheeuroareaforsometime,suggestingthatcapacitypressuresneedto
bereduced.Hence,atthismoment,thereislittleneedtochangeexistingpolicystances.Shouldaneedto
tightenorloosenthemacropolicystancebecomeapparent,monetarypolicywouldbethepreferred
instrument.InJapan,differentindicatorsofunderlyinginflationsendmixedsignalsanddeteriorating
businesssentiment,aswellastheneedforabufferagainsttheriskofdeflation,argueforkeeping
monetarypolicyonhold.
3
GDPgrowthintinhe%G7economies*
Annualisedquarter-on-quartergrowth YeaEr0-a8v3eragegrowtlRieviins2e0d08
07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 projection^ projection
UnitedStates'* 4.8 -0.2 0.9 3.3 [0.9(-H/-1.7)l [0.7(-I-/-2.2)] 1.2 1.8
Japan 1.0 2.4 3.2 -2.4 2.4(-b/-2.8) 1.4(-I-/-2.8) 1.7 1.2
EuroArea 2.5 1.4 2.9 -0.8 0.4(-b/-1.3) 0.8(-I-/-I.6) 1.7 1.3
Germany 2.4 1.4 5.2 -2.0 0(-f/-2.1) 0.1(+/-2.3) 1.9 1.5
France 2.7 1.5 1.6 -1.2 0.2(-b/-l,4) 0.6(-I-/-1.8) 1.8 1.0
Italy 0.6 -1.7 2.0 -!.l 0(-h/-1.7) 0.6(-H/-2) 0.5 0.1
UK^ 2.3 2.2 l.I 0.2 [-0.3(-H/-1.2)][_0.4(-r/-l.2)] 1.8 1.2
Canada 2.3 0.8 -0.8 0.3 0.8(-H/-1.6) 2(-h/-1.9) 1.2 0.8
G7 3.2 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.8(-r/-1.8) 0.7i+l-2) 1.4 1.4
a24d5l31...unynnnBFTTcTuaiathhahnmuseelaerieilerUcdsiU.eseSsvoKHdeimndofsGaiwmeiGsyDeodncDvdaPJpnleeProurlpgotn,jarrehaeecoamplc2kwpsect0atrail0hgbosou8eeepns.rsreiaiaintsoanaenntcdrsdeaeofll\fhiychAinuspsacglersnahadoocp-tpcitteleaioudirlaretitbetqyneyuuctdprelhmrmneuseiocdtccieyeaheflnasftidmenhnaccieadrtocikdsimcasemaoleptflestoaryhtrcraehstoeterxeptotvfuhrfieobeasnlrlncdueciagsoitsleisinhdtpogeaeanrdnotcetfohbkiefisyaanltogoh2pumepea9terrtUowaeuphnSuretganrhuettdescyaswtoteepas2nra.0oifk0come8eryr.sGdtwDFirhtiaPifgcicuckihrumnelagtstrhtpeseoehbfreoeifvrlwaosintlreum2vaaaertqdneeuctasaeorettaopetsvlhroeiasnsryawljatiluhntyneh,citpmtuaahprsneoetd..ritinIandnnistcpoaarrmtotoelireccumialonsadret,eshletahlcesuormrwoeodnretklir^-day,adiusted
Underpinningsandstatusoftheinterimforecast
SinceMarch2003,theOECDhaspresentedabriefoverviewofthenear-termprospectsinthemajorOECD
economiesbetweeneachissueoftheEconomicOutlook*Thisinterimassessmentshouldnotbeseenasafull
uhwophrdaiatztoeenxotfeannttdhethcbeoivlaeanrtnesusatalEmEcucoconnohommismciaclOluOeturltolnooukomkpbrpeorrjoejoceftciteoioncnsosnf,oorsmiitnhcceevliaatrrrigeaesbrtlseescoonannaodmmioceorsuenatlrrieimesistt.ielldHooinwnfetovrraecmrka,.tiiotnhseeltp,shaesvaalusahtoertteor
Inthiscontext,themaintoolisasuiteofindicator-basedmodelsthatservetoforecastrealGDPforeachoftheG7
economies.**Thesemodelsarerunuptoandincludingthefollowingquarter,meaningthattheycoverthetwo
quartersfollowingthelastoneforwhichofficialdatahavebeenpublished.Theyuseasmall,country-specific
selectionofmonthlyvariables,hard{e.g.industrialproduction,retailsales)and/orsoft{e.g.businessconfidence).
Thesemodelshavebeenshowntooutperformarangeofothermodelsrelyingsolelyonpublishedquarterlydata,
caosunrtergiaersdsanbdotohvefrorteicmaes,t-aecrcroorrdisinzgetoanodbsdeirrveecdtiofnoarlecaasctciunrgacpye.rfTohremanwceei.ghTtheofmtohdeeldsifufesreedntfomrotdheelUsSvaarnidesthaecrUosKs
economieshavebeenmodifiedtobeltercapturetheinfluenceofdevelopmentsinthehousingsector,withthe
inclusionofvariousforward-lookinghousingindicators.However,theydonotfullyincorporatetheimpactof
recentfinancialmarketturbulence.
*Inthecaseoftheeuroarea,someoftheaggregatedatacoveronlythe12countriesthatarecurrentlyOECDmembers,but
theseaccountfor99.4%oftheeuroarea'stotalGDP.
S*t*udSieees.PNaoi.n.40N,.2a0n0d5Fa.ndSedMiolulorto,ug'Ianndei,caAt.o,r“mFoodreelcsastoifngreamlonGtDhlPygGrDowPthfoirnCtahneadmaa”j,orOOEECCDDEceocnoonmoimcisesD”e,paOrEtCmeDntEcWoonrokmiincg
Paper.'Elo.515,2006.
4
Spreadsinshort-terminterbankmarketsremainwide
Note:Spreadbetweenthree-monthinterbankrateandthepolicyrate
Source:Datastream.
5
Sharepricesarelower
UnitedStates Japan
1800024000 NOckei225 24000
21000
18000
15000
12000
8000 9000 9000
6000 6000 6000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Source:Datastream.
6
Banksaretighteningiendingstandards
Netpercentageofbankstighteningcredit
UnKedStales•••Euroarea
Smaiifirms Largefirms
80 80
70 70
Consumerloans Japan
8600_.UUnniitteeddSSttaatteess••cortehdeirtccoanrdssumerloans ——•—LSHmaoarulgsleehffoiilrrmmdsss different432s0c00ale
-30 -60
-4020002001200220032004200520062007 20002001200220032004200520062007 -70
Nsohtoew:tThheeneBtapnekrcoefnJtaapgaenofpbuablniksshetsighatedniifnfgusciroendiit,ndaesxfoofr'thaeccUonmimtoeddaSttiavtee'smainndusthe'seevuerroe'a.reTah.edatahavethenbeentransformedto
OSfofuircceer:OpUiSniFoendeSruarlveRye.serve,SeniorLoanOfficerSurvey;ECB,Theeuroareabanklendingsurvey;andBankofJapan,SeniorLoan
7
UnitedStates:housingmarket
% (yearH-oonu-yseearpgrriowctehsrate) %
19901991 1992199319941995199619971998199920002001 2002200320042005200620072008
Newhousessoldandforsale
thousands
HousingInvestment,startsandpermits
lo2g7o.f2USdollars thou3s0a0n0ds
(DelDienlquienntquloeannscyarreattheosseopnastredauleethsitrtaytdeaylsooarnmsore)
~Residentialloans
Source:Datastream;OECDEconomicOutlook83database;andOECD,MainEconomicindicatordatabase.
8
Residentialconstructionpermitsarefallingsharplyinmostcountries
Latestdata,year-on-yeargrowthrate’
% %
CAN BEL NLD DEU NZL IRL JPN KORFRAEUROFIN GBRDNKGRC USANORSWE ESP
1. tMhoentphrleyvidoautsaymeaors.tlyendingbetweenMarch2008andJuly2008;three-monthaverageoverthesamethree-monthaveragein
Source:Eurostat;andOECD,MainEconomicindicatorsdatabase.
9
Realhousepricesaredeceleratingnearlyeverywhereandfallinginsomecountries
— Year-on-yearpercentagechange
••• UNnoirtweadyStates ~~—•SDpeanimnark FIirenllaanndd
-10' 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10
Note:HousepricesdeflatedbytheConsumerPriceIndex.
Source:Nationalsources.
10