Weapons of the Wealthy: Predatory Regimes and Elite-Led Protests in Central Asia

248 Pages·2010·2.234 MB·English

by  Scott Radnitz

WEAPONS OF
THE WEALTHY

WEAPONS OF
THE WEALTHY
Predatory Regimes and Elite-Led
Protests in Central Asia
Scott Radnitz
CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS ITHACA AND LONDON
Cornell University Press acknowledges receipt of a grant from the University of
Washington, which aided in the publication of this book.
Copyright © 2010 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts
thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from
the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House,
512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.
First published 2010 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Radnitz, Scott, 1978–
Weapons of the wealthy : predatory regimes and elite-led protests in Central Asia /
Scott Radnitz.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8014-4953-6 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Kyrgyzstan—Politics and government—1991– 2. Uzbekistan—Politics and
government—1991– 3. Demonstrations—Kyrgyzstan. 4. Demonstrations—
Uzbekistan. 5. Political participation—Kyrgyzstan. 6. Political participation—
Uzbekistan. 7. Elite (Social sciences)—Kyrgyzstan. 8. Elite (Social sciences)—
Uzbekistan. I. Title.
DK918.8757.R33 2010
958.4308'6—dc22 2010024646
Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and
materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials
include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled, to-
tally chlorine-free, or partly composed of nonwood fibers. For further information,
visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.
Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Figures and Tables vii
Acknowledgments ix
Note on Transliteration xiii
Introduction: Puzzles of People Power 1
1. Institutional Uncertainty and Elite-Led Mobilization 15
2. The View from Below: Communities as Sites for
Collective Action 39
3. The View from Above: State Influences on Elite Opportunities 53
4. Linkages across Classes: The Development of Subversive
Clientelism 77
5. Mobilization in Rural Kyrgyzstan 103
6. Elite Networks and the Tulip Revolution 131
7. Assessing the Dynamics of Mobilization
in Diverse Contexts 167
Conclusion: Political Economies, Hybrid Regimes, and
Challenges to Democratization 195
Methodological Appendix 217
Index 225

Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1. Mass mobilization infrastructure 32
2.1. Map of field sites 41
3.1. Mobilization structures of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan 55
5.1. Aksy Raion and its villages 109
6.1. Locations of major protests in Kyrgyzstan,
February–March 2005 143
6.2. Protest participation rates in Jalalabad Oblast, March 2005 162
7.1. Mobilization structure with low public goods, low
economic opportunities, and low political openness 170
7.2. Mobilization structure with moderate public goods,
high economic opportunities, and low political openness 171
7.3. Mobilization structure with regional variation: low public
goods, variable economic and political opportunities 171
Tables
0.1. Election-related protests and demographic indicators
by oblast, Kyrgyzstan, 2005 4
0.2. Cases for comparison 13
2.1. Characteristics of field sites 41
2.2. Declining economic indicators in Kyrgyzstan
and Uzbekistan during the transition period 44
4.1. Typology of clientelist investment 85
4.2. Predictors of subversive clientelism 93
4.3. First differences in expected values of subversive
clientelism in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan 95
5.1. Indicators of well-being of raions in Jalalabad Oblast 107
5.2. Characteristics of villages in Aksy, Kyrgyzstan 108
6.1. Major preelection protests, Kyrgyzstan, 2005 138
6.2. Major postelection protests, Kyrgyzstan, 2005 140
7.1. Cases for extending the theory 170
vii

Acknowledgments
When I started this project in 2001, Central Asia was not yet on the West’s “map.”
It is somewhat more prominent now thanks to the war in Afghanistan, but it is
still terra incognita to many, and it suffers from numerous misconceptions and
stereotypes. I hope, with this book, to help readers gain a better understanding
of Central Asia and to demonstrate how it can be incorporated fruitfully into
comparative analysis.
The research for and writing of this book took me across three continents. I
would not have completed it without the indulgence and assistance of many peo-
ple at various stages. Prior to visiting Central Asia, I studied Uzbek with Gulnora
Aminova. John Schoeberlein’s Central Asia and the Caucasus Working Group at
Harvard University gave me insight into the region. My first visit to Uzbekistan
was funded by the Mellon-MIT Program on NGOs and Forced Migration and
a Foreign Languages and Area Studies grant. A later trip was funded by ACTR/
ACCELS. Ruslan Ikramov in Tashkent helped me improve my conversational
Uzbek. John Payne and Marc DeVore inspired me to seize the yak by the horns.
Along the way, Christoph Zuercher and Jan Koehler organized an ambitious
collaborative project at the Free University in Berlin and made me a part of it.
Christoph provided valuable feedback as I fumbled my way toward a manageable
project and shared his wisdom from the Caucasus while I was in the field. Jan
helped me to flesh out and refine my ideas, with a social anthropologist’s eye for
the interesting and unexpected. The other researchers—Alexey Gunya, Bahodir
Sidikov, Azamat Temirkulov, Gunda Wiegmann, and Jonathan Wheatley—
provided many hours of intellectual stimulation in Berlin, Bishkek, and Baku.
Julia Larycheva and Sarah Riese helped keep things running. The Volkswagen
Foundation provided financial support while I was in Berlin and during two
follow-up visits to Kyrgyzstan.
During my year of fieldwork, the Fulbright program provided financial and
logistical support in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In the field, I benefited from the
assistance of many people, only some of whom I can name here. In Osh, I was
affiliated with the Kyrgyz-Uzbek University. The Adyshev family generously pro-
vided shelter and food. My fieldwork and cultural education benefited immensely
from the assistance of Almaz Kalet and Ilhom Melibaev. I have also enjoyed the
help and support of Kiyal Tuksonbaev, Azizkin Soltobaev, Galina Nikolaevna,
and Edil Baisalov in Bishkek; Aslambek Buriev in Tashkent; Saparbek Narkeev
ix