Weapons for Peace, Weapons for War: The Effect of Arms Transfers on War Outbreak, Involvement and Outcomes

191 Pages·1999·2.13 MB·English

by  Cassady B Craft

Weapons for Peace,
Weapons for War

Weapons for Peace,
Weapons for War

The Effect of Arms Transfers on War Outbreak,
Involvement, and Outcomes

Cassady Craft

Routledge
New York, London
Published in 1999 by
Routledge
29 West 35th Street
New York, NY 10001

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2002.

Published in Great Britain by
Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane
London EC4P 4EE

Copyright © 1999 by Routledge
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Craft, Cassady.
Weapons for peace, weapons for war: the effect of arms
transfers on war outbreak, involvement, and outcomes/by Cassady
Craft.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-415-92258-5 (cloth).—ISBN 0-415-92259-3 (pbk.)
1. Arms transfers. 2. War. 3. Weapons industry. I. Title.
UA10.C73 1999
355.02´7–dc21 98–49428
CIP
ISBN 0-203-90210-6 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 0-203-90214-9 (Adobe eReader Format)
ISBN 0-415-92259-3 (Print Edition)
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
Chapter 1 Introduction: Weapons for Peace, Weapons for War 1
Chapter 2 The Effects of Arms Transfers on War Outbreak and 15
Outcomes in the International System, 1950–1992
Appendix 2 War Statistics: Additional Data 47
Chapter 3 The Effects of Arms Transfers on War Involvement 51
and Outcomes, 1950–1992: Supplier and Recipient
State Relationships
Appendix 3 More Details on Supplier and 85
Recipient Relations
Chapter 4 The Effects of Arms Transfers on War Involvement 89
and Outcomes: Using Military Science to Test
Basic Propositions Empirically
Appendix 4 Models, Parameters, and Results: 135
Estimating the Effects of Arms
Transfers on War Using the
Dynamic Force Attrition Model
Chapter 5 Conclusion: Weapons for Future Peace, Weapons 151
for Future War
References 165
Index 177
v

Acknowledgments

Popular culture has the vision of the scholar as someone who is sequestered
in the ivory tower, engaged in a more or less solitary search for the truth.
Nothing could be further from reality. Scholars have lives (their students
don’t believe this, though), friends, family, and of course, colleagues. As
research and writing is of necessity a recursive process, there are
innumerable people who have made an impact on this work and yet do not
bear any responsibility for its shortcomings. I would like to thank the
following for their encouragement, advice and assistance in the completion
of this research: Robert Grafstein, Vally Koubi, Jerry Legge, Bill Chittick
and Han Park. The Director of the Center for International Trade and
Security, Gary Bertsch, and Associate Director Richard Cupitt were kind
enough to provide facilities, travel support, friendship and advice without
which this project would have languished. Gary Bertsch, in particular, made
my years at the University of Georgia productive, rewarding, and in the end,
worthwhile. He and Joni were kind enough to extend their hospitality,
graciousness and friendship. Other Center colleagues were kind enough to
sit through brown-bag presentations, strategize about the dissertation
process, and to make it easy to work around their busy schedules by
allowing an occasional encroachment. Of these colleagues, Keith Wolfe and
Jonathan Benjamin Alvarado stand out as especially shining examples of the
true nature of a scholar—adept in research, teaching and service. Keep
setting the bar higher, guys.
Ian Anthony, Pieter and Siemon Wezeman of the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute were hosts during my brief visit to Sweden, and
saved this project when the “data” that I thought I’d come away with was
not what I thought. For this, I owe a great debt. Jonathan Gill and
Christopher McDonald provided intellectual sustenance by being around to
talk, often expressing interest in the mundane details of data and theory, and
showing how weapons sales really do matter. Their companionship in
demonstrating the capabilities of military weaponry as old as our
grandfathers continues to be revealing of both the destructive power of
weapons themselves and the rejuvenating power of friendship. In this
respect, I can only hope that I gave as good as I got and do everything in
my power to make sure that our friendship is lifelong. Robert Harkavy and
vii
Frederic Pearson proved to be intellectual pathfinders and were kind enough
to read and comment on early drafts. I envy their students. Ron Page of the
Correlates of War Project provided data updates and answered innumerable
questions. Numerous “lurkers” on the Scientific Study of International
Processes internet discussion group also were kind enough to share insights
through the electronic medium. My students at the Sam Nunn School of
International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology seemed willing
to forgive as I thought aloud concerning the intricacies of arms transfers
data, statistical significance, and the substantive importance of the study of
conflict processes.
Dr. and Mrs. Gerry Craft taught their youngest boy, among a myriad of
other important things, to finish what he started. Anyone who has been a
graduate student knows that sometimes that is the key in completing an
advanced degree. Through the years, Russell Pierson has shown me how a
true cowboy does his work, and Bernice, my grandmother, exhibited all of
the qualities of a wonderful, beautiful lady. They are also responsible for my
early exposure to international affairs by virtue of their allowing a twelve
year old to travel along with them around the Pacific rim.
Last, but most importantly, Suzette Grillot provided coaching and
encouragement as wife, confidant, and friend. Her many trips to the mound
to share advice and give me a breather allowed me to avoid unnecessary
pitfalls and, eventually, to notch up a complete game. Her previous
experience in writing a dissertation inspired me because she bore our child
during the process. Our daughter, Hannah, also had indelible impact on this
project by rearranging notes and drafts, pounding on keyboards and
otherwise filling my life with happiness, fun, and play. Thanks, little girl, for
never allowing me to forget the important things in life.
viii
1
Introduction: Weapons for Peace,
Weapons for War

Every modern war threatens to involve half the world, bring disaster to
world economy, and blot out civilization. The question is urgent then: What
will be done about the armaments industry?
H.C.Engelbrecht and F.C.Hanighen, Merchants of Death1
[The] relative importance [of the abuses of private arms manufacturers] in
the causation of modern war has probably been greatly exaggerated….
While private arms-trading…[has] led to abuses, it seems probable that on
the whole [it] has tended to stabilize the balance of power rather than to
disturb it by equalizing the defensibility of states. Control of these activities
by national governments would tend to increase international tensions.
Quincy Wright, A Study of War2
The Argument
Why study the effect of arms transfers3 on war? As noted by Engelbrecht
and Hanighen more than half a century ago, trends in the global arms trade
are carefully watched because of expectations concerning the outbreak and
outcomes of war.4 Most analysts conclude that increasing global arms
sales enhances military capabilities around the world, thus leading to an
increase in the likelihood of war.5 War, seen as a public phenomenon,
produces negative externalities, such as demographic dislocations,