Table Of ContentTadeusz Pastusiak
Voyages on
the Northern
Sea Route
Voyages on the Northern Sea Route
Tadeusz Pastusiak
Voyages on the Northern
Sea Route
123
Tadeusz Pastusiak
Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
Gdynia,Poland
ISBN978-3-030-25489-6 ISBN978-3-030-25490-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25490-2
©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020
This book is an extended and a revised version of PLANNING INDEPENDENT TRANSIT
VOYAGES OF VESSEL WITHOUT ICE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
SEA ROUTE, published in Polish on August 2018 by WYDAWNICTWO AKADEMII MORSKIEJ
WGDYNI.Publishedwithpermission.
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The book is dedicated to all researchers,
polar explorers, people from the ice
reconnaissance, fishermen, seamen and
ancient whale and seal hunters, whose hard
work and commitment have provided
knowledge on navigation in the polar
regions.
Preface
ThenoticeableaccelerationofclimateintheArcticinthetwenty-firstcenturyledto
reduction of the area of sea ice and reduction of their thickness. This results in an
extension of the navigation season, also for vessels with low ice classes or even
withouticereinforcements.TheNorthernSeaRouteshortensdistancenecessaryto
pass fromEuropeanportstotheFarEast ports, reducestimeofsuchavoyage and
makesitpossibletobypassregionsoftheworldthreatenedbyterrorismatsea.The
interest in possibility of using this route is large. After the first period of intensive
growthoftransittransport,importandexporttransportbetweentheNSRregionand
European ports, and the Far East was the most advantageous. A significant
improvement of ice conditions in the twenty-first century is forecasted, favoring
development of seasonal shipping. In summer navigation season, it is possible to
navigate on vessels of low ice classes and even vessels that do not have ice
reinforcements.
AnditispreciselythepossibilityofshipownersbecominglessactiveintheNSR
navigation activity up to now, which seems to be particularly interesting. Vessels
that are normally used in ice-free areas have steel hulls without ice strengthening.
These vessels are relatively cheap in terms of construction and operation costs in
relation to vessels with ice classes, and especially polar classes. Seasonal
involvement of new owners on the NSR does not require construction of special-
ized vessels for shipping in ice, but only theuse of existing tonnage on the freight
market.
TheregulationsoftheRussianMaritimeRegisterofShipping(RMRS)statethat
vessels with ice classes lower than Arc4 are allowed to navigate only outside the
Arctic. On the other hand, the Rules for navigation on the Northern Sea Route
provideforpossiblederogationsfromtheprovisionsoftheRMRSatthediscretion
of the NSR Administration. This applies to the “ice-free” navigation period. Ship
operators should report to the NSR Administration theirs intention to perform a
voyage by vessel on the NSR at least three months before the intended date of
departure. Forecast of ice navigation conditions on the NSR is not available so
much in advance. The ship’s operator must therefore make a decision on the date
of the beginning of voyage, risking that their vessel will bear the costs of charter
vii
viii Preface
whileawaitingiceconditionsallowingforindependentnavigationorincurringhigh
costs of icebreaker services. In case the start of voyage occurs after the ice-free
transit zone has been created along the whole NSR, it is very likely that the vessel
willnotreachtheportofdestinationbeforetheice-freezoneclosesonbeginningof
autumn. Then, in the most favourable case, the vessel will have to take advantage
ofthecostlyservicesoficebreakers.Inbothcases,theeconomicresultofvoyageis
uncertain.
Taking above into consideration, the author of the work, who is a long-time
captain of sea-going vessels, set himself the goal of developing a method of
effective route planning, for decision-makers. It covers the most likely course of
routesdevelopedbytheauthor(lengthofroutes)withacertainprobabilityoftheir
repetition in the next summer navigation season and statistical speed of vessels of
different ice classes and not having ice reinforcements with ranges of deviations
from mean and median values. In this way, one can calculate the expected time
of planned route in a pessimistic, balanced and optimistic version. The most
important are probability diagrams of opening and closing ice-free zone the transit
zone along the whole NSR for the selected day of the year. They are based on
historicaldatafromrecentyears. Thevoyagesimulationsperformedandpresented
in the book confirm effectiveness of the method proposed by the author.
Theauthorofthebooksortedouttheavailableknowledgeandpointsofviewon
the safe speed of the vessel in the areas where ice occurs, the rules of handling
vessel in ice and the importance of knowledge and experience of the captain,
helmsmen, deck crew and machine crew in ice for a high proficiency of voyage
eveniniceconditionsseeminglymakingitimpossibletoachieveaneconomicgoal
of voyage. The dangers to shipping that occur on the NSR were also discussed,
ways of avoiding them during the route plotting and how to handle when they are
encountered during the voyage.
First of all, the book is intended for decision-makers of commercial enterprises
for whom it is a dilemma whether to take action towards trade or shipping on the
Northern Sea Route, when and what actions should be taken and what range of
uncertainty should be included in the initial planning and scheduling of voyage in
advance to 1–6 months.
Gdynia, Poland Tadeusz Pastusiak
Acknowledgements
The idea to publish my previous work, i.e. Ph.D. thesis, came out from the
reviewers Prof. Jacek A. Jania, President of Committee on Polar Research, Polish
Academy of Sciences and Head, Centre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia.
Actually,aftercompletingDoctorofSciencesprocessIwishedtomakesamewith
monograph that has closed previous stage of my scientific work, after extensive
revision, extension and updating of my research works.
Restarting my research in the far north after the completion of work on board
merchantvesselswouldnotbepossiblewithoutthehelpandsupportofProf.Piotr
Głowacki,InstituteofGeophysics,PolishAcademyofSciences,actuallyPresident
of Committee on Polar Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, and Prof. Jacek A.
Jania,PresidentofCommitteeonPolarResearch,PolishAcademyofSciences,and
Head, Centre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia. I extend to them my deepest
appreciationfortheirassistanceinthefieldofresearchintheArctic.Iwanttothank
Prof. Dr. Anna Styszyńska, supervisor of my Ph.D. thesis for very good guidance
on initial stage of my scientific work. I wish to thank Barbara Jóźwiak for
improving the use of English in the manuscript.
Iextendspecialpersonalexpression ofmygratitude toProf. AndrzejA.Marsz,
Prof. Emeritus, Gdynia Maritime University, for scientific mentoring.
The publication of the book would not be possible without the kind permission
of the authors and copyright holders: U.S. National Ice Center, IBCAO and
Naturalearthdata.com.
This book could not have been written and designed without the support and
assistanceofmanypeopleandorganizationsduringtheearlystageofmyscientific
work to whom I would like to express my warmest thanks.
To all authors and publishers who kindly granted permission to publish illus-
trations and other materials, I express my sincere gratitude.
I would like to thank my parents, Jan and Maria, who believed in me and, in
particular, my closest family, Magdalena and Janina for acquiescence for my sci-
entific work and understanding during long time I spent on the book.
ix
Contents
Part I Planning a Voyage in Ice
1 Introductory Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice. . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 Description of Ice Classes and Vessel Capability
for Unassisted Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.3 Administrative Methods to Control Traffic Safety
of Vessels in Ice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.4 Purpose and Scope of the Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.5 Source Materials and Initial Assumptions Regarding
Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2 Decision Support System for Initial Planning
of a Voyage on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1 Initial Planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.2 General Outline of Initial Voyage Planning Decision
Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision
Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.4 Selected Simulation Models of Transit Voyages
on the NSR Developed in the Years 1996–2016. . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Part II Dangerous Phenomena and Hazards for Navigation
3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring
on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.1 Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting the Safety
of Navigation on the NSR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
xi
xii Contents
3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting
Navigation Safety on the NSR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.2.1 Phenomena Related to Ice Formations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.2.2 Phenomena Unrelated to Ice Formations . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4 Selected Dangerous Hydrological Phenomena and Voyage
Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.1 Ice Massifs and the Area of Ice Cover. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.1.1 Definition of Ice Massifs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.1.2 Location of Ice Massifs During Winter and Summer
Seasons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
4.1.3 Statistical Data Regarding Ice Massifs and the Area
of Ice Cover During the Navigation Seasons
of 1940–1949 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4.2 Extremely Fast Ice Drift . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.2.1 Ice Rivers and Their Location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.2.2 Analysis of an Ice River Phenomenon Recorded
at Wrangel Island in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.3 Options for Initial Route Planning Based on Long-Term
Russian Forecasts of Ice Navigation Conditions on the NSR. . . 96
4.4 Types of Ice Conditions and Ice-Free Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.5 Duration of Ice-Free Navigation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Part III Ice Navigation Conditions
5 The Impact of Ice Conditions on Maritime Transport
on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5.1 Annual Cycles of Changes in Ice Forms and Its Impact
on Navigation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
5.2 Definition of Openings in Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.3 On-Scene Vessel Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.3.1 Variability in Conditions Determining the Possibility
of Passing Through Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.3.2 Vessel’s Capability to Pass Through Ice with Specific
Parameters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
5.3.3 Criteria for Determining the Beginning of Lighter
Ice Conditions, Which Make Navigation Possible
for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
