Table Of ContentVolatile States in International Politics
Volatile States
in International Politics
ELEONORA MATTIACCI
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2022913247
ISBN 978–0 – 19– 763868–2 (pbk.)
ISBN 978–0 – 19–7 63867– 5 (hbk.)
DOI: 10.1093/o so/ 9780197638675.001.0001
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Omnia mutantur, nihil interit.
Everything changes, nothing perishes.
Ovid, Metamorphoses, Book XV, line 165
Contents
Acknowledgments ix
List of Abbreviations xiii
1. I ntroduction 1
The Puzzle 3
Making Sense of States’ Behaviors 5
Volatility vs. Other Forms of Change in States’ Behaviors 7
Why Volatility Matters 11
Two Ways to (Wrongly) Dismiss Volatility 14
The Argument in Brief 16
The Goals of This Book 18
Research Design 20
Book Outline 21
2. Theory: When Does Volatility Increase? 24
Step One: Relative Power 25
Step Two: Interest Heterogeneity 29
Step Three: The Interaction 36
Alternative Explanations 40
Conclusions 46
3. Measuring Volatility 49
Capturing Cooperation and Conflict 50
Capturing Dynamics 53
Isolating Volatility 54
Measuring Volatility: A Two-S tep Procedure 56
Summarizing Volatility 58
The Measure in Practice 59
A Multipronged Approach to Measuring Volatility 66
Conclusions 69
4. Volatility and Rivals 71
Statistical Analysis Design 72
Measuring Relative Power Superiority 77
Measuring Heterogeneous Domestic Interests 78
Alternative Explanations 80
Results and Discussion 81
Conclusions 88
viii Contents
5. Volatility and Allies 91
France in 1954 93
France’s Relative Power 96
France’s Domestic Interests 98
Theoretical Predictions 100
Retracing Volatile French Behavior 101
Interests and Power Produce Volatility 111
Alternative Explanations 113
France Exits NATO: 1966 118
Conclusions 119
6. Conclusions 122
A New Perspective 124
What Can Volatility Tell Us? 125
Broader Implications for Research 129
Taking Volatility Seriously 134
Moving Forward 139
Appendix 141
A Note on Scaling 141
Measuring the Dependent Variable Using the Box- Jenkins Procedure 142
Summarizing Volatility 146
Monthly Data 148
Notes 151
Bibliography 187
Index 211
Acknowledgments
This book is the product of many conversations over the course of more than
a decade. I am thrilled to have a chance to thank all those people who have
helped me along the way.
This project started as a dissertation at The Ohio State University. There,
as a student, I had the pleasure to work with a great group of scholars: Janet
Box- Steffensmeier, Ted Hopf, Luke Keele, and Irfan Nooruddin. Each of
them provided important inspiration for the project and were extremely
generous with their time. I will strive to pay forward what I cannot possibly
pay back. Bear Braumoeller has been the best dissertation advisor I could
hope for. Reading his work or discussing International Relations with him
feels like taking a peek into a kaleidoscope: brand new puzzles and capti-
vating perspectives emerge anew. He always makes things sound worthy of
exploring further, inspiring his students to push forward with their research.
The fundamental idea behind this book owes a lot to our conversations.
At Ohio State, I found a fun and engaged community of students who
looked at the field of International Relations from different perspectives and
was not afraid to argue about it. It was a pleasure to bounce back and forth
ideas in various workshops on the material that would then become this
book. My biggest thanks go to Bentley Allan, Zoltán Búzás, Austin Carson,
Aldous Cheung, Eunbin Chun, Kevin Duska Jr., Matt Hitt, Fernando Nunez-
Mietz, Srdjan Vucetic, and Joshua Wu.
My senior colleagues in the Political Science Department at Amherst
College have been crucial in both providing me with time to write this book
and instilling in me the desire to do so. I am very grateful to Amrita Basu,
Kristin Bumiller, Javier Corrales, Tom Dumm, Pavel Machala, and Austin
Sarat for all their support. My junior colleagues Kerry Ratigan and Ruxandra
Paul have provided me with great peer support, commenting on different
parts of the manuscript. Theresa and Steve Laizer have helped immensely
with the book conference, among other things. Provost and Dean of Faculty
Catherine Epstein and Associate Provosts Janet Tobin and Jack Cheney have
been extremely helpful with the logistics and monetary aspects associated
with my research for this book.
