Table Of ContentGlobal Change - The IGBP Series
Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidclberg
Gmbll
Kabat . Claussen . Dirmeyer . Gash . de Guenni . Meybeck
Pielke Sr. . Vorosmarty . Hutjes . Liitkemeier (Eds.)
Vegetation,
Water, Humans
and the Climate
A New Perspective on an Interactive System
With 246 Figures
, Springer
Editors
Pavel Kabat Michel Meybeck
Wageningen University and Research Centre Universite de Paris 6/SYSYPHE, Laboratoire de Geologie Appliquee
ALTERRA Green World Research 4 place Jussieu, F-75252 Paris, France
Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: [email protected]
E-mail: [email protected]
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Martin Claussen
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Potsdam-Institut fiir Klimafolgenforschung Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany E-mail: [email protected]
E-mail: [email protected]
Charles J. Vorosmarty
Paul A. Dirmeyer
University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Oceans & Space (EOS)
4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton MD 20705-3106, USA Complex Systems Research Center, Water Systems Analysis Group
E-mail: [email protected] Morse Hali, 39 College Road, Durham NH 03824-3525, USA
E-mail: charles. [email protected]
John H. C. Gash
Ronald W. A. Hutjes
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Wageningen University and Research Centre,
Oxfordshire OXIO 8BB, United Kingdom ALTERRA Green World Research
E-mail: [email protected] Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
E-mail: [email protected]
Lelys Bravo de Guenni
Sabine Liitkemeier
Universidad Sim6n Bolivar
Departamento de C6mputo Cientifico y Estadistica Potsdam-Institut fiir Klimafolgenforschung
P.O. Box 89.000, Caracas 1080-A, Venezuela Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
Cover design:
Figures from left to right: Well in the Sahet West Africa: courtesy ofJohn H. C. Gash ©, Centre for Ecology
and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. Model c/oud: adapted from Pielke RA, Lee TJ,
Copeland JH, Eastman JL, Ziegler CL, FinIey CA (1997) Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather
and climat e simulations. EcolApplications 7:3-21. © printed bypermission ofEcological Societyof America
and the authors.Amazon near Manaus: © Antonio D. Nobre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz(mia,
Manaus, Brazii. Elbe flood: JeBnitz (near Bitterfeld) on the river Mulde on 15 August 2002 © M. Zebisch,
Technische Universitlit BerlinlPotsdam -Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung e. v., Germany.
ISSN 1619-2435
ISBN 978-3-642-62373-8 ISBN 978-3-642-18948-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-18948-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 2004102329
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Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2004
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Preface
This bookis the result ofan initiativebythe BiosphericAspects ofthe Hydrological
Cycle (BAHC),a Core Project ofthe International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
(IGBP). It reports on the more than a decade-long research andfindings ofa large
numberofscientistsstudyingthe Earthsystemin termsofthe connectionbetween
theterrestrialbiosphere,thehydrologiccycleandthepotentialanthropogenicinflu
ences. The authors contributing to the five parts ofthe book have highlighted the
researchandfindingsofhundredsofscientistswhohaveworkedoverthepast15years
onthe interfacebetweenthehydrologicalcycle,theterrestrialbiosphereandtheat
mosphere.Asyoureadthroughthebook,itbecomesclearthatthescientificprogress
goeswellbeyondanysingleinternationalprogramme:itisinterdisciplinaryandre
flects contributions made towards addressing manyofthe objectives set forth bya
numberofprojectsofIGBP,WCRP(WorldClimateResearchProgramme),andIHDP
(International Human DimensionsProgramme on GlobalEnvironmentalChange).
At the programmatic levelwe often compartmentalise and label research as be
longingtoaspecificnamedprogramme,butinrealityandattheresearchers'level,itis
all a seamless process that tackles specific and challenging questions related to the
highlyinteractiveprocessesofvegetation,waterandhumanswithin the climate sys
tem. In their earliestyears, BAHC and GEWEX (the GlobalEnergy and Water Cycle
ExperimentofWCRP) recognised the needfor thematicsynergiesandcollaboration
betweenthe two research programmes.Bothprogrammeshavesuccessfullycollabo
ratedinalargenumberofjointresearch,observationalandmodellingactivitiessince
theirinception(BAHCin1990andGEWEXin1988).TheInternationalSatelliteLand
Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), a GEWEX project, is perhaps one ofthe best
examplesofanexcellentcollaborationbetweenthetwoprogrammes.BAHCandISLSCP
haveoperated"backtoback"sincethe Tucsonaggregation workshop in1994(Kabat
andSellers1997)1.ISLSCPisaleadingprojectinproducingandconsolidatingglobal
datasetsforglobalchangestudies.BAHCandISLSCPjointlyinitiatedandcoordinated
an arrayofland-surface/atmosphere experiments,known as HAPEX and FIFE (for
exampleHydrologicalandAtmosphericPilotExperimentintheSahelandFirstISLSCP
FieldExperiment,respectively).Bothprogrammesjointlytookthe first stepsto initi
ate the largest and most integrativeEarth system experiment so far: the LargeScale
BiosphereAtmosphereExperimentinAmazonia (LBA).Itisgratifyingtoseesomeof
theresearchandfindings resultingfromthesejointactivitiespresentedinthisbook.
While we are both extremelypleasedwith the research progress reported in this
volume,weareevenmoreexcitedaboutthefuture resultsoftheplannedjointactivi
ties associated with the recentlylaunched GEWEX Phase II and the new project in
IGBPontheland-atmosphereinterface,ILEAPS(IntegratedLandEcosystem- Atmos
phere Processes Study)2,to which the BAHCcommunitywillbea majorcontributor.
For example,both the Coordinated Enhanced ObservingPeriod (CEOP) ofGEWEX,
1KabatP,SellersPJ(1997)Specialissue:Aggregatedescriptionofland-atmosphere interactions,fore
word.JHydroI190/3-4:173-175.
2http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/ILEAPS/
VI Preface
and the FLUXNET project ofworld-wide CO flux measurement initiatedbyBAHC
2
arepositionedattheforefrontoftheEarthsystemmeasurementandmonitoringap
proaches.Byfocusingonaseriesofreferencefieldsitesdistributedoverallcontinents
(CEOP),on"transectstudies"(FLUXNET),and on simultaneous use ofsatellite and
groundobservation,theseexperimentswillprovideadatasetofunprecedentedcom
pletenessandqualityforourscientiststoworkwith.
The GlobalLand-AtmosphereSystem Study (GLASS) and the GlobalSoil Wetness
Project (GSWP) are otherexamplesofsuccessful collaborative activitybetweenthe
two programmes in modellingland-surface/atmosphereprocesses and interactions
within the climate system (e.g. Feddes et al. 2001)3.These projects are promising a
newgenerationofland-surfaceschemesfor Earthsystemmodels.Thenewschemes
willevolveintointeractiveschemesthatincreasinglyincorporatemorehydrological,
atmospheric,biogeochemical andecologicalinformation.
Finally,whileBAHCandGEWEXplacemuchoftheiremphasisonthephysicaland
biosphericaspectsofwater,theyhavealsobeenverymuchinterestedinthepotential
impactofthe alteration ofthe globalhydrologicalcycleon regionalwater resources
andecosystems.However,despitethereportedscenarioandcasestudies (seePartD
andE)andtheproposednewapproachforvulnerabilityassessments(PartE),atpresent,
specificregionaleffectscontinuetobeuncertain.Thisremaininguncertaintyisoneof
thefactors thathas thus far hinderedtheeffectiveapplicationofGEWEXandBAHC
research results to operational hydrology and water management strategies. Better
linkstoapplicationsinwaterresourcesisthereforeoneofthemainprioritiesofPhaseII
ofGEWEX and ofthe new joint project GWSP (Global Water Systems Project),co
sponsored by IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and DIVERSITAS (International Programme of
BiodiversityScience).Weremainoptimisticthatwithinthisdecademuchprogressin
thisareawillbemadeanditwillbethesubjectofafuturepublication.
Soroosh Sorooshian PavelKabat
Chair, ChairandCo-Chair,
GEWEX-Scientific SteeringGroup BAHCandILEAPSScienceSteeringCommittees
3FeddesRA,HoffH,BruenM,DawsonTE,deRosnayP,DirmeyerP,JacksonRB, KabatP,KleidonA,
LillyA,PitmanAJ (2001) Modellingrootwateruptakeinhydrologicalandclimatemodels.Bull
AmerMeteorSoc82:2797-2809.
Acknowledgements
Theeditorsemphasisethatthe results reportedherearebasedonthe researchwork
ofmanyindividual scientists and research teams around the world who have been
associated in some waywith the objectives ofthe IGBP-BAHC andWCRP-GEWEX
researchprogrammes.Synthesisingtheseresultswasonlyachievedthroughthecom
mitment,andwork,oftenvoluntary,ofthesescientists,andtheirstaffandstudents.
We especially acknowledge the help ofall those involved in developing databases,
convening/hostingworkshops and editing drafts,and all those who participatedin
thelivelydiscussionswhichmadetheworksoenjoyableandworthwhile.
WearegratefultotheGermanFederalMinistryofEducationandResearch(BMBF)
for funding the BAHC Project Office at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research(PIK)towhomthanksarealsodue.TheDutchNationalResearchProgramme
on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (grant 959291) provided support for
partoftheScienceSynthesisprocess.Additionalfundingandsupporthavebeenpro
vided through the following institutions and agencies: the IGBP Central Office in
Stockholm,TheNetherlandsMinistryofAgriculture,NatureManagementandFish
eries,The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO),and the WCRP
InternationalGEWEXProjectOffice,SilverSpring,USA.
In particular we would like to thank Will Steffen for his continuous encourage
mentandsupportduringthe entireSynthesisprocess;Hans-JiirgenBolleasthefirst
BAHCChair;PiersSellerswho as theformer ChairofISLSCPhelpedforge the con
nectionsbetweenBAHCandGEWEX;thelateMikeFosberg,formerheadoftheBAHC
CoreProjectOffice;andalltheformermembersoftheBAHCScientificSteeringCom
mittee.Lastbutnotleastwealsowish to thanktwo colleaguesatthe PotsdamInsti
tuteforClimateImpactResearch:DietmarGibitz-Rheinbay,forhelpingwiththetech
nical side ofputting togetherabook ofthis size,and Ursula Werner for redrawing
manyofthefigures.
Contents
Introduction 1
PartA DoesLandSurfaceMatterinClimateandWeather? 5
A.l Introduction........................................................................... 7
A.2 TheClimateneartheGround 9
A.2.1 Introduction............................................................................ 9
A.2.2 TheSurfaceEnergyBalance 9
A.2.3 TheSurfaceWaterBalance 14
A.2.4 ObservingtheSurface 16
A.3 TheRegionalClimate 21
A.J.! FundamentalMechanism in Land-Atmosphere Interactions 21
A.3.2 AtmosphericResponsetoHeterogenousLandForcing 22
A.p.l Microscale Impact 22
A.3.2.2 Mesoscale Impact 24
A.3.3 Regional Teleconnections 28
A.3.4 Discussion 31
A.4 TheGlobalClimate 33
A.4.1 Feedbacks,Synergisms,MultipleEquilibriaandTeleconnections 33
A.4.1.1 Feedbacks 33
A-4-1.2 Synergisms 36
A.4.1.3 Multiple Equilibria 37
A.4.1.4 Teleconnections 39
A.4.2 Palaeoclimate 40
A.4.2.1 Feedbacksin theArcticClimateSystem 40
A-4.2.2 TheSahara 42
A.4.2.3 Historical Land-cover Change 44
A-4-3 Sensitivityto DecadalBiogeochemicalFeedbacks 45
A.4.J.! TheLandSurfaceandClimateChange 45
A.4.P Biogeochemical Feedbacks 46
A.4.3.3 Transient Experiments 48
A.4.4 SeasonalVariability 48
A.4.5 ImpactofLandSurfaceonWeather 52
A.4.5.1 BriefLiteratureSurvey 52
A-4-5.2 EuropeanCentrefor Medium-RangeWeather Forecast
(ECMWF) Examples 53
A.S TheSahelian Climate 59
A.5.1 Introduction 59
A.5.1.1 Background 59
A.5.1.2 ClimateAnomaliesandClimateChangeintheSahel 60
A.5.1.3 TheComplexProcessesofLand-useChangeintheSahel 62
X Contents
A.5.2 ObservationalStudiesofSahelian Land-surface/Atmosphere
Interactions 63
A.p.l TheSahelianEnergyBalanceExperiment(SEBEX) 63
A.p.2 TheHydrologicalandAtmosphericPilotExperiment
in theSahel(HAPEX-Sahel) 64
A.5.2.3 CouplingTropicalAtmosphereand HydrologicalCycle
(CATCH) 65
A.5.2.4 SavannasintheLongTerm(SALT) 65
A.P.5 Satellite Data 66
A.5.3 CoupledModellingofSahelianLand-AtmosphereInteractions 66
A.5.P BriefOverview 66
A.5.P LargeScaleForce-ResponseStudiesoftheSahelian
ClimateAnomaly:TheRelativeImportanceofLand-surface
ProcessesandSea-surfaceTemperatures 68
A.5.3.3 Mesoscale InteractionsbetweenSahelian Precipitation
and Land-surfacePatterns 71
A.5.3A ClimateSystemInteractionsintheSahel 71
A.5.4 Understanding Mechanisms 73
A.5.5 Conclusion 75
A.6 TheAmazonianClimate 79
A.6.I Introduction 79
A.6.2 FutureClimatesinAmazonia 81
A.6.3 ObservationsofLand-surface/Atmosphere Interactions 82
A.6.4 TheGeneralCharacteristicsandVariability
ofWaterandEnergyBalancesintheAmazonBasin 85
A.6.4.1 Introduction 85
A.642 Water Balance 86
A.643 EnergyBalance 87
A.6.5 Deforestationand Climate 88
A.7 TheBorealClimate 93
A.7.1 TheBorealEcosystem,BorealClimateandHigh-latitudeClimate
ChangeandVariability 93
A.7.U ClimateandBorealVegetation 94
A.7.1.2 EffectsofFireandInsectsonVegetationandLandCover 95
A.7.1.3 High-latitudeClimateChange 96
A.7.1.4 ChangesinSnowExtent,DepthandDuration 96
A.7.2 EnergyDissipationandTransportbytheBorealLandscape..... .... 101
A.7.2.1 EffectofSoilTypeonSurfaceEnergyPartitioning 102
A.7.2.2 EffectofLand-coverTypeonSeasonalVariation
in Relative Humidity 103
A.7.2.3 RoleofStomatalControl 103
A.7.2.4 RoleofLatitudinalGradient 104
A.7.2.5 RoleofMoss 106
A.7.2.6 RoleofAlbedoofForests,WetlandsandLakes 106
A.7.2.7 RoleofFire-inducedAtmosphericAerosols 107
A.7.2.8 RoleofSurfaceHydrology 107
A.7.2.9 ScalingEnergyandWaterFluxfromthePlottotheRegion 108
A.7.3 BiosphericCarbonExchange:CarbonDioxideandMethane 109
A.7.3.1 Measurement Methods 109
A.7.P ControllingFactors(aboveandbelowGround) 110
A.7.3.3 GeographicVariationsinCarbonFlux 110
A.7.3.4 SeasonalandInterannualVariationsinCarbonFlux III
A.7.3.5 Methane......... ... .. ... ........ ... ... .... 112
Contents XI
A.7-J.6 TheEffectofLandscapePatterns,Disturbance
andSuccessiononCarbonCycling 112
A.7-4 Sensitivity Experiments 113
A.7.4.1 SnowAlbedoandClimateFeedback.................. 113
A.7-4-2 CarbonSequestrationand Radiative Feedbacks 113
A.7-4.3 EffectsofClimateChangeonLandCover 114
A.7.4.4 Hydrological Feedbacks 114
A.S TheAsian MonsoonClimate.... ... ... . .... ..... 115
A.8.1 Introduction...... ....... 115
A.8.2 Role ofHuman-inducedLarge-scaleLand-use/coverChange
ontheWaterCycleandClimateinMonsoonAsia 115
A.8.2.1 AtmosphericWaterCycleoverMonsoonAsia 115
A.8.2.2 Is Monsoon RainfallDecreasing?
TheImpactofDeforestationinThailandontheWaterCycle....... 116
A.8.2.3 DoWater-fed Rice PaddyFieldsIncreaseRainfall
inMonsoonAsia? 118
A.8.2.4 Conclusions............................................................... 120
A.8.3 CanHuman-inducedLarge-scaleLand-coverChanges
Modifythe EastAsianMonsoon? 120
A.8.p HistoryofLand-cover/Land-useChangesoverEastAsia 121
A.8.3.2 DesignoftheNumericalExperiments 121
A.8.3.3 ChangesofSurfaceDynamicParameters
underTwoVegetationCoverages...................................... 123
A.8.3.4 ChangesoftheEastAsiaMonsoon
byHuman-inducedLand-coverChanges 123
A.8.4 Summary................................................... . ... 127
A.9 Summary,Conclusion and Perspective........................................ 129
References 137
PartB HowMeasurableisthe EarthSystem? 155
B.1 Introduction...... .... .... ... .. ... . . 157
B.I.I TheNeedfor IntegratedExperiments 157
B.I.2 TheExperimentalDesign 157
B.I.3 Guideto PartB 158
B.2 TheEnergyBalanceClosureProblem 159
B.2.1 ExamplesofEnergyBalanceClosureinFieldExperiments 159
B.2.2 Reasonsfor PoorClosure 161
B.2.3 Experiment Design.... ... ... . ... . . .... 163
B.2.4 CalculationandAnalysisErrors 163
B.2.5 OverallAccuracy- WhatCanBeExpected 164
B.2.6 PushingEddyCovariancepastItsLimits. ..... ... ..... . ... 165
B.2.7 Copingwith PoorEnergyBalanceClosureWhenModelling 166
B.2.8 SummaryandConclusions 166
B.3 Radiation Measurementsin IntegratedTerrestrial Experiments......... 167
B.3.1 Introduction.............................................. .... ........... 167
B.3.2 Radiometryin IntegratedTerrestrial Experiments 167
B.3.3 Available Radiometer Designs 169
B.3-4 OverviewofRadiometryintheLastTwoDecades 170
B.3.5 Summary............ ............. .... .... .... . 171
