Table Of ContentVariability of Air Temperature and Atmospheric Precipitation in the Arctic
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC SCIENCES LIBRARY
VOLUME 25
Editors
Robert Sadourny, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS,
École NormaleSupérieure, Paris, France
Lawrence A. Mysak, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences,
McGill University, Montreal, Canada
Editorial Advisory Board
L. Bengtsson Max-Planck-lnstitut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
A. Berger Université Catholique, Louvain, Belgium
P.J. Crutzen Max-Planck-lnstitut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany
J.R. Garratt CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
G. Geernaert DMU-FOLU, Roskilde, Denmark
K. Hamilton University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, U.S.A.
M. Hantel Universität Wien, Austria
A. Hollingsworth European Centre forMedium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading,
UK
H. Kelder KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), De Bilt,
The Netherlands
T.N. Krishnamurti The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, U.S.A.
P. Lemke Alfred-Wegener-lnstitute for Polar and Marine Research,
Bremerhaven, Germany
P. Malanotte-Rizzoli MIT, Cambridge, MA, U.S.A.
S.G.H. Philander Princeton University, NJ, U.S.A.
D. Randall Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, U.S.A.
J.-L. Redelsperger METEO-FRANCE, Centre National de Recherches
Météorologiques, Toulouse, France
R.D. Rosen AER, Inc., Lexington, MA, U.S.A.
S.H. Schneider Stanford University, CA, U.S.A.
F. Schott Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany
G.E. Swaters University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
J.C. Wyngaard Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, U.S.A.
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Variability of Air
Temperature and
Atmospheric
Precipitation in the
Arctic
by
Rajmund Przybylak
Department of Climatology,
Nicholas Copernicus University,
Poland
translated by
John Kearns
Adam Mickiewicz University,
Poland
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
NEW YORK,BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW
eBookISBN: 0-306-48222-3
Print ISBN: 1-4020-0952-6
©2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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CONTENTS
Preface to the English Edition vii
Acknowledgements ix
Acknowledgements to the English Edition xi
Translator’s Note xiii
Symbols xv
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Preliminary Remarks 1
1.2 Aim and Subject of the Research 2
1.3 Study Area 2
2. A Review of the Literature 7
2.1 Works Published before 1950 8
2.2 Works Published after 1950 9
3. Data and Methods 17
4. Variability in Atmospheric Circulation in the Arctic between 1939 and 1990 25
4.1 Frequency of the Occurrence of Types, Groups, and Macrotypes of
Circulation 29
4.2 Duration of Groups and Macrotypes of Circulation 43
5. Variability of Air Temperature 47
5.1 Seasonal and Annual Means of and 48
5.2 Spatial Relations of Air Temperature in the Arctic 137
5.3 The Role of Atmospheric Circulation in the Shaping of Air Tempera-
ture in the Arctic 144
6. Variability of Atmospheric Precipitation 169
6.1 Mean Seasonal and Annual P Totals 170
6.2 Atmospheric Circulation and Precipitation 218
7. Scenarios of Thermal-Precipitation Conditions in a Warmer World 239
7.1 The Basis for the Construction of Climatic Scenarios 239
7.2 Scenarios of Air Temperature 242
7.3 Scenarios of Atmospheric Precipitation 251
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vi Variability of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Arctic
8. Conclusions 261
9. Variability of Air Temperature and Atmospheric Precipitation in the Arctic:
An Update to 2000 273
9.1 Introduction 273
9.2 A Review of the Literature 274
9.3 Data and Methods 279
9.4 Air Temperature in the 1990s 282
9.5 Atmospheric Precipitation in the 1990s 293
9.6 Conclusions and Final Remarks 302
References 305
Index 327
PREFACE TO THE ENGLISH EDITION
It has been known at least since the end ofthe century that the polar
areas play a very important role in the formation of the Earth’s climates. It is
also known today that they are the most sensitive regions to climatic change,
and are thus perfect case studies for the detection of such changes. The most
serious obstacle to the study of climatic and other geographical elements of
the polar areas (including the Arctic) has always been the severe climatic
conditions which prevail in these regions. Because of these extreme condi-
tions, research into particular elements of the climatic system (including the
atmosphere) began here much later than it did in lower latitudes. For instance,
the whole area of the Arctic was not sufficiently covered with a network of
meteorological stations until the late 1940s (and even then there were large
areas of the central Arctic and the Greenland interior for which no data were
available).
This is probably why it was not until the start of the 1990s that a body
of work began to appear which analysed in any depth climatic variability for
the Arctic as a whole. While a considerable number of papers had been pub-
lished before this period, most of them were local studies presenting highly
localised information, providing air temperature measurements but often little
else. Taking into consideration the role played by the Arctic in the formation
of the global climate and its importance to the detection of changes, knowl-
edge about the climate ofthe Arctic and its changes was surprisingly superfi-
cial and there was a visible need to examine the issue more closely. The greatest
difficulty in writing this work, which started at the beginning of the 1990s
when the Internet was still a relatively new phenomenon and data were not
widely accessible, was the collection of meteorological data, especially from
the Russian Arctic.
Two basic meteorological elements were chosen to characterise the cli-
mate and its variability: temperature and precipitation. Close attention was
also paid to defining the borders of the Arctic so that all the areas within
these borders would be characterised by similar climatic conditions. That is
why only climatic criteria were taken into consideration when defining the
southern border of the Arctic. Of the numerous criteria used to define the
southern border, those used by the authors ofAtlas Arktiki seemed to be the
most credible and competent. Having thus defined the area of the Arctic, vari-
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viii Variability of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Arctic
ous aspects of the variability of temperature and precipitation were compre(cid:1)
hensively examined up to 1990 using data from 35 Arctic stations and 10
sub(cid:1)Arctic stations. The research being extensive and important, its results
were published in the form of a book by the Nicholas Copernicus University
in Toruń in 1996.
A few years later the Dutch academic publishers Kluwer expressed an
interest in publishing the book in English, suggesting that the author should
provide an update concerning changes in the climate of the Arctic up to the
end of the century. The present edition is mainly a translation of the book
published in Polish 1996, with very few changes in its content. However, the
volume has been extended by the addition of a supplement presenting the
climate of the 1990s in comparison with that of the period from 1951 to 1990.
The period 1991–2000 turned out to be the warmest decade of the second half
of the century, with the last 5 years being especially warm. This resulted
in a substantial reorganisation of those tendencies of changes in temperature
and precipitation which had been calculated for the period 1951(cid:1)2000 in com(cid:1)
parison with the period 1951–1990. Until now in many of my publications
I have underlined the absence of major changes in the climate of the Arctic
after 1975. Presently, however, there is no doubt that the Arctic is also getting
visibly warmer, albeit ca. 20 years later than the Earth as a whole. The ques(cid:1)
tion remains of whether this tendency will continue and, if it does, how long
this warming will last. It is also interesting to examine whether the tempera(cid:1)
ture of the Arctic in the first decades of the century will exceed tempera(cid:1)
ture levels from the 1930s and 1940s. If so, there will be no doubt about the
major role being played by the growing greenhouse effect in this process.
The present book is aimed at all scientists interested in the climate of
polar areas. I hope it will prove useful, not only for those working in research
into atmospheric phenomena, but also for oceanographers, glaciologists, and
biologists, examining other elements of the Arctic climatic system. The map(cid:1)
ping of the results should also prove useful in the validation of model
simulations of the present climate of the Arctic.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The present work would not have come into being but for numerous
individuals and institutions, whom I wish to thank warmly.
My first thanks must be to Prof. Gabriel Wójcik for suggesting the
subject of the work, great consideration he showed while I was writing the
work, for supporting my research efforts, for invaluable assistance relating to
methodology and content, and for much more besides. I also extend my grati(cid:1)
tude to the authorities of the Institute of Geography at the Nicholas Copernicus
University (NCU), namely Prof. Zygmunt Churski and Dr. Krzysztof Roman
Lankauf, for their help in my successful application for an NCU grant and for
other forms of financial support for my research.
I was offered extensive help from various people when collecting the
climatic data necessary for the work to be completed. Above all I want to thank
Prof. Andrzej who, as Vice(cid:1)Rector of the NCU, provided me
with funds and academic leave to conduct research at the Arctic and Antarctic
Research Institute in St. Petersburg (October to November 1992) and in the
Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen (February 1993). These visits
enabled me to gather very precious and otherwise unavailable climatic data,
along with extensive literature. I also wish to express my gratitude to Dr. John
Heap, the Director of the Scott Polar Research Institute (SPRI) at the Univer(cid:1)
sity of Cambridge, for inviting me to the Institute in June 1994 and January
1995 and making available to me its extensive library. The SPRI librarian,
William Mills, and his colleagues were also very helpful. I would like to thank
Prof. Duch, the TEMPUS coordinator, for awarding me with two
scholarships enabling me to go to Cambridge. I am also deeply grateful to the
following individuals for making available to me various climatic data, as well
as data concerning the Arctic climatic system: Bjoern Aune from the Norwe(cid:1)
gian Meteorological Institute in Oslo, Dr. Alexander Alekseevich Dementev
from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute at St. Petersburg, Povl Frich
from the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen, Prof. Phil Jones from
the University of East Anglia in Norwich, Dr. Jaroslav Střešt(cid:3)k from the Czech
Academy of Science in Prague, Mike Webb from the Canadian Climatic Centre
in Toronto, and Prof. Genadiy K. Zubakin from the Arctic and Antarctic Re(cid:1)
search Institute at St. Petersburg. I also thank the National Climatic Data Cen(cid:1)
tre (NCDC) in Asheville, USA, for sending me the data from Barrow station.
ix
