Using System Archetypes to Identify Failure Patterns in Acquisition

40 Pages·2006·0.81 MB·English

Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense © 2005 by Carnegie Mellon University
Using System
Archetypes to
Identify Failure
Patterns in
Acquisition
Diane Gibson
Linda Levine, PhD
William E. Novak
May 2, 2006
page 1
Overview
Introduction to Systems Thinking
Applying Archetypes to Acquisition:
The Far Orbit Satellite System (FOSS)
Conclusions and Future Directions
© 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University
What is "Systems Thinking"?
• A new perspective which provides an understanding that comes from
focusing on the big picture and the interactions internal and external

to it instead of dividing up the picture into smaller elements.
For example -- if you look at the body of an aardvark, you see one picture if you kill
it, cut it up and examine the parts; you see another if you look at the animal as one
entity, and examine how it interacts with different levels of the environment in which
it lives (or if you study the interactions of the organs which make up the system
called "aardvark".)
(cid:127) it involves thinking in 'circles' rather than straight lines
(cid:127) cause and effect are interactive; what
is a cause one time is an effect another
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What is a System?
System = a collection of elements where
(cid:127) the whole is bigger than the sum of the parts
(cid:127) everything is interconnected & effects everything else
(cid:127) there is a purpose & the elements are arranged meet this
purpose
(cid:127) the interactions of elements are characterized by reciprocal
flows of influence
(cid:127) this is also what causes the system to change
(cid:127) the same action may have different effects, different actions
may have the same effects, & delays often lead to
unexpected outcomes
(cid:127) cause & effect may be far apart in time & space
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Causal Loop Diagrams - Language of Systems
(cid:127) Consist of lines with arrows, drawn in circular format, to show
cause-effect (influence) relationships
(cid:127) The direction of the relationship is labeled (S)ame or
(O)pposite, based on the direction of the causation.
(cid:127) Loops are labeled either
(cid:1) (R)einforcing - to change by making stronger/weaker; created with an even #
of opposites.
(cid:1) or (B)alancing - equilibrium achieved between contrasting or opposing
elements; created with an odd # of opposites.
(cid:127) Time delays are important.
Variable
S
(cid:127) Additional loops can be O
Variable y
D e l a
added to show side
Variable
effects or other R1
B2
S S
S
consequences.
Variable
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Systems Archetypes
(cid:127) Story, diagram, template and/or graph
(cid:127) that describes and depicts specific patterns
(cid:127) which reveal the underlying system structure and associated
problems and mental models
(cid:127) which facilitates addressing the underlying causes of behavior
(cid:127) which are common across many organizations
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Using Archetypes
(cid:127) Viewpoints (Lenses)
(cid:127) Examine problem structure (Patterns)
(cid:127) Explain dynamic events
(cid:127) Forecast potential behaviors
(cid:127) Make changes to a system
(cid:127) Present information about problems & solutions
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Different Archetypes
(cid:127) Shifting the Burden
(cid:127) Drifting Goals
(cid:127) Limits to Success/Growth
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Shifting the Burden - Story
When a quick fix is applied to a problem, and it seems to work,
that is the end of further investigation.
THE REAL PROBLEM...
However, the quick fix
(cid:127) leads to side effects, which may not be recognized as related
to the original problem;
(cid:127) consumes resources, reducing the ability of the organization
to address other causes and ultimately, to implement a
fundamental solution;
(cid:127) and since the fundamental problem isn’t addressed, it returns,
often in a more virulent form.
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Shifting
Symptomatic
The Solution
S
Burden
B1
Causal S
O
Loop Problem
Side
R3
Diagram Symptom
Effect
O
B2
S
Fundamental
Solution O
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