Table Of ContentThe Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of cur- U
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rent and critical importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policymakers with concrete . P
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judgments and recommendations. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force lic
members aim to reach a meaningful consensus on policy through private and nonpartisan y T
deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of CFR and solely responsible ow
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for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying r
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that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not th
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necessarily every finding and recommendation.” Members’ affiliations are listed for iden- K
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Task Force MeMbers in
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Michael R. Auslin William J. Lennox Jr. la
American Enterprise Institute for Public Goodrich Corporation
Policy Research
Marcus Noland
Douglas K. Bereuter Peter G. Peterson Institute
The Asia Foundation for International Economics
Victor D. Cha Don Oberdorfer
Georgetown University Johns Hopkins University
Charles B. Curtis Michael O’Hanlon
Nuclear Threat Initiative The Brookings Institution
Nicholas Eberstadt Jonathan D. Pollack
American Enterprise Institute for Public Naval War College
Policy Research
Charles L. Pritchard
Robert L. Gallucci Korea Economic Institute
Independent Task Force Report No. 64
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur
Evans J.R. Revere
Foundation Albright Stonebridge Group
Michael J. Green Stanley Owen Roth Charles L. Pritchard and John H. Tilelli Jr., Chairs
Center for Strategic and The Boeing Company
International Studies Scott A. Snyder, Project Director
James J. Shinn
Stephan Haggard Princeton University
University of California, San Diego
Susan L. Shirk In
Siegfried S. Hecker University of California, San Diego de U.S. Policy
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Stanford University e
Scott A. Snyder n
Fred C. Iklé Council on Foreign Relations den
Center for Strategic and t T
International Studies John H. Tilelli Jr. as Toward the
Cypress International Inc. k F
Charles Jones o
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www.cfr.org
U.S. Policy Toward
the Korean Peninsula
Independent Task Force Report No. 64
Charles L. Pritchard and John H. Tilelli Jr.,
Chairs
Scott A. Snyder, Project Director
U.S. Policy Toward
the Korean Peninsula
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are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of current and critical
importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policymakers with concrete judgments and recommenda-
tions. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force members aim to reach a meaningful consensus
on policy through private and nonpartisan deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of
CFR and solely responsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consen-
sus signifying that they endorse ‘‘the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not
necessarily every finding and recommendation.’’ Each Task Force member also has the option of putting
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and do not imply institutional endorsement. Task Force observers participate in discussions, but are not
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All rights reserved.
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Task Force Members
Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they
endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group,
though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.’’ They par-
ticipate in the Task Force in their individual, not institutional, capacities.
Michael R. Auslin Marcus Noland
Douglas K. Bereuter Don Oberdorfer
Victor D. Cha Michael O’Hanlon
Charles B. Curtis Jonathan D. Pollack
Nicholas Eberstadt Charles L. Pritchard
Robert L. Gallucci Evans J.R. Revere
Michael J. Green Stanley Owen Roth
Stephan Haggard James J. Shinn
Siegfried S. Hecker Susan L. Shirk
Fred C. Iklé Scott A. Snyder
Charles Jones John H. Tilelli Jr.
William J. Lennox Jr.
v
Contents
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xiii
Task Force Report 1
Introduction 3
The North Korean Challenge 6
U.S. Policy Options 11
A Regional Framework for Stability 20
A Comprehensive Agenda 30
U.S.-South Korea Relations 37
Recommendations 42
Additional or Dissenting Views 57
Endnotes 61
Task Force Members 65
Task Force Observers 76
Foreword
It is one of the last remaining geopolitical problems of the twentieth
century: a divided peninsula occupied by two countries still technically
at war—one dynamic and modern, the other closed, impoverished, and
belligerent. The countries, of course, are the two Koreas, and the penin-
sula they share represents one of the most vexing challenges facing the
world today.
The gravest threat is North Korea’s nuclear program. The North’s
nuclear arsenal, its pursuit of more advanced missile technology, and
the possibility that it could transfer nuclear weapons or materials to
others (whether states or terrorist groups) pose significant dangers to
the United States and its allies in the region and beyond. Successive U.S.
administrations have struggled, largely unsuccessfully, to address this
set of dangers. In particular, the Six Party Talks—consisting of China,
Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States—have
failed to bring about North Korea’s denuclearization. The Council on
Foreign Relations wrestled with issues involving the Korean peninsula
in five separate Independent Task Force reports between 1995 and 2003,
and it has now done so again in 2010, indicating both the seriousness of
the problems and the lack of progress in resolving them.
The urgency of the threat is undeniable. North Korea possesses
nuclear-weapon and missile capabilities, has threatened its neighbors,
and has been willing to sell nuclear materials and technology to the
highest bidder. Its reclusive leadership is unpredictable, something yet
again underscored by the unprovoked destruction of the Cheonan, a
South Korean naval vessel, by a North Korean torpedo in late March
2010. Moreover, the future of its regime is uncertain, with the potential
for a contested succession or breakdown of authority after the death of
Kim Jong-il.
But while the danger is clear, progress is elusive. North Korea has
boycotted nuclear disarmament talks since 2008, and their future is
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