U.s. intelligence and the soviet strategic threat

270 Pages·2016·6.663 MB·English

by  Freedman, Lawrence

US INTELLIGENCE AND
THE SOVIET STRATEGIC THREAT

US INTELLIGENCE
AND THE SOVIET
STRATEGIC THREAT
Lawrence Freedman
Professor of War Studies
King's College, London
Second Edition
Princeton University Press
Princeton, New Jersey
Published by Princeton University Press,
41 William Street,
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
© Lawrence David Freedman 1977, 1986
All rights reserved.
First Princeton hardcover printing, 1986
First Princeton paperback printing, 1986
Printed in Hong Kong
Clothbound editions of Princeton University Press
books are printed on acid-free paper, and binding
materials are chosen for strength and durability.
Paperbacks, while satisfactory for personal collections,
are not usually suitable for library rebinding.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Freedman, Lawrence
US intelligence and the Soviet strategic threat.
Bibliography: p.
1. Military intelligence—United States.
2. Strategic forces—Soviet Union. I. Title.
UB251.U5F73 1986 355.3'432'0973 85-43345
ISBN 0-691-07696-0
ISBN 0-691 -02242-9 (pbk)
'I was wondering what the mouse-trap was for,' said
Alice. 'It isn't very likely there would be any mice on
the horse's back.'
'Not very likely, perhaps,' said the Knight; 'but, if
they do come, I don't choose to have them running all
about.'
'You see,' he went on after a pause, 'it's as well to be
provided for everything.
That's the reason the horse has all those anklets
around his feet.'
'But what are they for?' Alice asked in a tone of great
curiosity.
'To guard against the bites of sharks,' the Knight
replied. 'It's an invention of my own. . . .'
LEWIS CARROLL
Through the Looking-Glass

Contents
List of Tables and Figures ix
Foreword to the Second Edition x
Acknowledgements xxviii
Sources xxx
Abbreviations xxxii
1 INTRODUCTION i
2 THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY 8
Speculative-Evaluative Intelligence 8
The Central Intelligence Agency 13
Military Intelligence 21
Other Intelligence Agencies 26
3 THE ESTIMATING PROCESS 30
The Office of National Estimates 30
National Intelligence Estimates: 1951—69 32
Estimates and Influence 41
Estimates and Planning in the Department
of Defense 44
Henry Kissinger and the Decline of the Office
of National Estimates 46
The Fall of the Office of National Estimates 52
The Estimating Process: 1973—6 54
Conclusion: The Structure of Power in the
Intelligence Community 58
4 THE MISSILE GAP 62
The Soviet Threat: 1945—55 63
The Search for ICBMs 67
Estimating Production Rates 74
Conclusion 77
5 GREATER-THAN-EXPECTED THREATS 81
The Shift to the Defence 81
The Greater-Than-Expected Threat 84
The 'ABM Gap' 86
Vlii CONTENTS
6 AN INVULNERABLE DETERRENT 97
The Threat to ICBMs 97
Minuteman as a 'Hard' Target 99
The Soviet Missile Force: 1961—9 101
The US Assessment of the Soviet Build-up 113
7 THE SENTINEL DECISION 118
The US Response to the Soviet Build-up 118
Perceptions of the Minuteman Vulnearability Problem 120
The Sentinel Decision 122
Conclusion 127
8 THE NIXON ADMINISTRATION:
PROTECTING MINUTEMAN
THROUGH SAFEGUARD 129
The Safeguard Decision 129
First-Strike Alarms 131
Minuteman in Danger 134
When is a MRV a MIRV? 137
No Clear and Present Danger 144
Safeguard: The Inadequate Shield 147
Minuteman Vulnerability: A Threat Established 151
9 PROTECTING MINUTEMAN THROUGH SALT 153
The Soviet Threat: 1969—71 153
Protecting Minuteman in the Long Term 159
Protecting Minuteman Through SALT 161
The 'Monster Missiles' 164
10 PREPARING FOR THE THREAT: 1972-6 169
A New Generation of Soviet Missiles 169
MIRV and the Strategic Balance 176
M-X 179
11 US INTELLIGENCE AND THE SOVIET STRAGETIC
THREAT 183
Notes 199
Bibliography 219
Index 229
List of Tables and
Figures
Table 2.1 Key Government Officials: 1947—77 28
Table 6.1 National Intelligence Estimates for
Soviet ICBMs: 1961—70 106
Table 9.1 National Intelligence Estimates for
Soviet SLBMs on Nuclear Submarines:
1965-70 155
Table 10.1 Characteristics of Soviet ICBMs 172
Figure 6.1 Intelligence projections for number of
Soviet ICBMs by mid-1967 and mid-1970 102
Figure 9.1 Intelligence projections for number of
Soviet SLBM launch-tubes on nuclear
submarines by mid-1971 156
Figure 9.2 SS-9andSS-u deployment: 1964—72 158