Table Of ContentMohsen M. Aboulnaga · Amr F. Elwan
Mohamed R. Elsharouny
Urban Climate
Change Adaptation
in Developing
Countries
Policies, Projects, and Scenarios
Urban Climate Change Adaptation in Developing
Countries
Mohsen M. Aboulnaga • Amr F. Elwan
Mohamed R. Elsharouny
Urban Climate Change
Adaptation in Developing
Countries
Policies, Projects, and Scenarios
Mohsen M. Aboulnaga Amr F. Elwan
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Faculty of Engineering
Engineering Military Technical College
Cairo University Cairo, Egypt
Giza, Egypt
Mohamed R. Elsharouny
Architect & Out-sourced Project
Coordinator
African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank)
Cairo, Egypt
ISBN 978-3-030-05404-5 ISBN 978-3-030-05405-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05405-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018968019
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Preface
Nothing is permanent! We all know that climate change is inevitable; nevertheless,
we are alarmed by the changes occurring in the global climate. Currently, the prime
concern that future generations face is the occurrence of undesired climate change
risks, which have been manifested worldwide. Therefore, the authors have written
this book to focus on understanding climate change impacts on the built environ-
ment and related sectors, and to explore solutions for these problems through the
implementation of climate change adaptation policies, measures and actions as well
as programmes and projects. One of the challenges highlighted by the literature in
this book, is that adopting policies is not enough to counterbalance climate change,
nevertheless, implementing actions and tools such as adaptation decision frame-
works are imperative to move adaptation from theory to practice and to overcome
obstacles and guarantee successful adaptation to climate change.
The book’s contents are structured into two main parts and are presented using a
farmed approach to assist the reader in facilitating and comprehending the contents.
The first part of the book presents the global risks of climate change and investigates
the consequences on the built environment and its impact on different sectors such
as agricultural and food security, ecosystems, forests, water, health, coastal and
flood prone zones and tourism and energy. While the second part highlights the
climate change measures, policies and actions at the global scale, it focuses specifi-
cally on climate change adaptation in developing countries. In addition, the lead by
example approach is addressed in Part II by presenting nine climate change adapta-
tion projects in one of the developing countries – Egypt, and comparing them
to global projects in other developing countries, with the purpose in mind to identify
the gaps and track success stories, and failures in the climate change adaptation
process.
With contributions from the lead author, an international and national expert who
has more than 30 years of experience in higher education, government, senior man-
agement and consultancy in sustainable energy policies and climate change adapta-
tion, this book will be a great resource on the topic of ‘climate change’. We strongly
believe that the book will interest governments, professionals, research centres,
libraries, researchers and students who are interested in this field, as well as
v
vi Preface
policy- makers and industry stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation and
mitigation.
You are most welcome to contact the lead author at, mohsen_aboulnaga@yahoo.
com, to share your thoughts and comments, while you are reading this book or
afterwards. I promise to get back to you in a timely manner.
Cairo, Egypt Mohsen M. Aboulnaga
Acknowledgements
I would like to express my sincere thanks to the co-authors who have contributed
tirelessly and significantly to make this book a reality, and for providing their
thoughts, research work and wealth of materials that have contributed to this
volume.
We would like to thank the Springer editorial team and production team for their
valuable advice, support and patience during the development of this book. I would
like to thank Amanda Quinn, Faith Pilacik, Brian Halm and Abhishek Ravishankar
for their kind efforts and endless assistance during the process.
Special thanks go to Mona Mostafa for her amazing efforts and continuous assis-
tance during the writing and development of this book. We also thank Perihane Wael
for her support and time taken to proof the book chapters.
Finally, our thanks are extended to everyone who has helped bring this book to
completion.
Mohsen M. Aboulnaga
Amr F. Elwan
Mohamed R. Elsharouny
vii
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Post COP 22 and COP 21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Climate Change: What Is the Size of the Problem? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4 W hy Sustainable Development in Cities Is a Path to Climate
Change Adaptation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5 O ur Converge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.5.1 Part I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.5.2 Part II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.6 A Final Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2 Global Climate Change Risks: Sectors and Variables’ Changes . . . . . 19
2.1 Global Climate Change Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1.1 Agriculture and Food Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1.2 Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.1.3 Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.1.4 Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.1.5 Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.1.6 Coastal Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.1.7 Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1.8 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.9 Fishing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1.10 Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.2 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3 C limate Change Impacts on Urban Areas and Infrastructure . . . . . . 49
3.1 Indirect Impact of CC on Urban Areas and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . 49
3.1.1 Impact of Agriculture and Food Security Risks . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.1.2 Impact of Ecosystem Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.1.3 Impact of Forest Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
ix
x Contents
3.1.4 Impact of Water Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.1.5 Impact of Health Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.1.6 Impact of Coastal Zone and Flood Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.1.7 Impact of Tourism Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.1.8 Impact of Energy Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.1.9 Impact of Economy Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.2 Direct Impact of CC on Urban Areas and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . 58
3.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
4 Global Climate Change Adaptation Measures in Cities and Urban
Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4.1 Global Climate Change Adaptation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4.1.1 Coastal Areas and Flood-Prone Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.1.2 Urban Areas’ Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.1.3 Infrastructure Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.1.4 Fresh Water Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.1.5 Energy Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.1.6 Health Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.1.7 Agriculture and Green Space Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.1.8 Forest Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.1.9 Biodiversity Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.1.10 Economy Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.2 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
5 Global Climate Change Adaptation Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.1 Global Climate Change Adaptation Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.1.1 Urban Areas Policies: Coastal Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
5.1.2 Infrastructure Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
5.1.3 Water Resource Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
5.1.4 Energy Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.1.5 Agriculture and Green Infrastructure Policies . . . . . . . . . . 112
5.1.6 Human Health Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
5.1.7 Tourism Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.2 Mapping of Adaptation Decision Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.2.1 Identify Problems and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.2.2 Select Suitable Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.2.3 Test Method or Sensitivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.2.4 Select Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.2.5 Assess the Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.2.6 Assess Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.2.7 Evaluate Adaptation Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.3 Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation Policies in Africa . . . . . . . 120
5.3.1 Financial Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
5.3.2 Social-Cultural Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Contents xi
5.3.3 Information Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5.3.4 Technological Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.3.5 Development Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
6 Risks, Policies, Measures and Actions for Climate Change
Adaptation in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
6.2 Climate Change Impact on Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
6.2.1 Future Impacts of Climate Change on Developing
Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
6.2.2 What Is the Impact of Climate Change on Egypt? . . . . . . . 132
6.3 Climate Change Adaptation Policies in Developing Countries . . . 149
6.3.1 Classification of the Climate Adaptation Policies . . . . . . . . 150
6.3.2 Climate Change Adaptation Policies, Egypt: Case Study . . 152
6.4 Climate Change Adaptation Measures in Developing Countries . . 158
6.4.1 Classification of the Climate Change Adaptation
Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
6.4.2 Climate Change Adaptation Measures, Egypt: Case Study 160
6.5 Integrated Climate Change Policies and Measures: Egypt . . . . . . . 171
6.5.1 National Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation . . . . . . . 172
6.5.2 National Strategy, Goals and Commitments and Sectors
Affected . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
6.5.3 Regional Strategy and the Specificities the Region Faces . 174
6.5.4 National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
6.5.5 Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
7 C limate Change Adaptation Projects: Global and Developing
Countries’ Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
7.1 I ntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
7.2 E valuation Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
7.2.1 Converting Criteria Sets to Be Quantitative . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
7.3 Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Projects Globally:
Comparison of Developing Countries Versus Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
7.3.1 Climate Change Adaptation Projects in Energy Sector
(Case Studies) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
7.3.2 CCA Projects’ Case Studies in the Waste Management
Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
7.3.3 CCA Projects’ Case Studies in Urban Areas Sector . . . . . . 202
7.3.4 CCA Projects’ Case Studies in Ecosystem Sector . . . . . . . 208
7.3.5 CCA Projects’ Case Studies in Awareness Raising Sector . 211
7.3.6 CCA Projects’ Case Studies in Agriculture Sector . . . . . . . 217
