Uncertainty by Design: Preparing for the Future with Scenario Technology

204 Pages·2022·11.017 MB·English

by  Limor Samimian-Darash

UNCERTAINTY
BY DESIGN
A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress. cornell . edu.
UNCERTAINTY
BY DESIGN
Preparing for the Future with
Scenario Technology
Limor Samimian-D arash
CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS ITHACA AND LONDON
Sections of chapter 1 appeared previously in “Governing Uncertainty, Producing
Subjectivity: From Mode I to Mode II scenarios,” Subjectivity 14, no. 6 (2021):
1–18, co- authored with Michael Rabi.
Sections of chapter 2 and chapter 3 appeared previously in “Practicing
Uncertainty: Scenario- Based Preparedness Exercises in Israel,” Cultural
Anthropology 31, no. 3 (2016): 359–86.
Copyright © 2022 by Cornell University
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thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from
the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House,
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. cornell . edu.
First published 2022 by Cornell University Press
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Samimian- Darash, Limor, author.
Title: Uncertainty by design : preparing for the future with scenario technology /
Limor Samimian- Darash.
Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2022. |
Series: Expertise: cultures and technologies of knowledge |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021026441 (print) | LCCN 2021026442 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781501762451 (hardcover) | ISBN 9781501762468 (paperback) |
ISBN 9781501762475 (epub) | ISBN 9781501762482 (pdf)
Subjects: LCSH: Uncertainty— Social aspects. | Strategic planning— Simulation
methods— Social aspects. | Decision making— Simulation methods— Social
aspects. | Strategic planning— Case studies. | Decision making— Case studies.
Classification: LCC HM1101 .S255 2022 (print) | LCC HM1101 (ebook) |
DDC 003/.5— dc23
LC rec ord available at https://l ccn . loc. g ov/ 2 021026441
LC ebook rec ord available at https://l ccn . loc. g ov/ 2021026442
For Chosro and Shulamit

Contents
Preface ix
List of Abbreviations xv
Introduction: Uncertainty, Scenarios, and the F uture 1
1. Chronicity: The Problematization of Scenario Thinking 23
2. Narrative Building: Imagining Plausible Futures 37
3. Exercising: Practicing the Unexpected 55
4. Subjectivation: Embracing Uncertainty 72
5. Simulations: Possibilities and Responses 97
6. Scenarios, Temporality, and Uncertainty 117
7. Conclusions and Critical Limitations 130
Epilogue: Scenarios and the Dynamics between Science
and Imagination 148
Notes 159
References 165
Index 183

Preface
In my gradu ate research (at HUJI), I examined preparedness for nonconven-
tional biological threats in Israel, and the unique form that such preparations
took in that country. I discovered an assemblage of multiple experts and units
involved in conceptualizing biological “exceptional” events as well as diverse
ways to prepare for them, which I termed a “pre- event configuration.” Although
I came to see the distinct nature of dif er ent f uture events and the heterogeneity
dynamism of the state- preparedness formation, I did not explic itly address
“uncertainty” as a concept u ntil a fter the completion of that writing proj ect.
A subsequent reflection on the two cases of a smallpox vaccination proj ect and
preparedness for pandemic flu launched my journey t oward the concept of uncer-
tainty. The smallpox vaccination proj ect conducted in Israel in the winter of 2002–
2003 during the Second Gulf War reflected preparedness for the possibility of a
future smallpox event in which both the biological agent and the vaccine against it
were already known. Preparing for pandemic influenza, however, invoked a dif er-
ent problematic. The par tic u lar virus strain that might be involved in a f uture
outbreak was unknown, and thus the disease’s clinical case definition could not be
ascertained in advance. That is to say, until an influenza pandemic takes place, it is
impossible to know what specific viral agent w ill be involved and how exactly to
prepare for it. In such a situation, however, an epidemic is neither a fabrication nor
an abstraction; rather, the potential for its appearance already exists, and this vir-
tual occurrence can actualize as dif er ent events in the f uture—as vari ous pan-
demic strains that may require dif er ent types of treatment and response.
It was then that I realized that a smallpox pandemic and pandemic flu each
represented a dif er ent type of uncertain f uture. Over time, I came to refer to
these two types of uncertainty as pos si ble uncertainty and potential uncertainty.
The concept of uncertainty was not a subject of par tic u lar interest within an-
thropology at the time. Nor was the future as dominant a site of research and
critique as it is today. It was only when I visited as a postdoctoral fellow at the
University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, through the generous hospitality
of V irginia Dominguez and Jane Desmond, that I de cided it was time to study
and reflect on the concept of uncertainty itself— first by reading every thing that
had been written on the topic in a range of disciplines and second by develop-
ing a conceptualization based on my fieldwork research, which I thought could
open up an in ter est ing discussion for anthropologists.
ix