Turn of the tortoise : the challenge and promise of India's future

329 Pages·2017·1.982 MB·English

by  Ninan, T. N

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Turn of the Tortoise
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Turn of the
Tortoise
The Challenge and Promise
of India’s Future
z
T N NINAN
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Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
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Press in the UK and certain other countries.
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.
© T N Ninan 2017
Published in India in 2015 by Penguin Books India.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
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You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Ninan, T N, author.
Title: Turn of the tortoise : the challenge and promise of India’s future /
T N Ninan.
Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2017] |
Originally published by Allen Lane, New Delhi, in 2015. | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016017261 | ISBN 9780190603014 (hardcover) |
ISBN 9780190603038 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: India—Economic conditions—21st century. |
India—Economic policy—21st century. | India—Foreign relations—21st century. |
India—Forecasting.
Classification: LCC HC435.3 N56 2017 | DDC 330.954—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016017261
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed by Edwards Brothers Malloy, United States of America
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For Sevanti
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Contents
Acknowledgments  ix
We’re (Not) Like That Only
1. A Question of Size  3
2. The Last Great Frontier  16
3. Not Twins and Not Alike  33
Quick, Slow … Quick? 
4. Enterprise Losing the Plot  43
5. Cronyism in an Arbitrary State  57
6. Manufacturing: A Handicapped Sector  75
7. What Works (and What Doesn’t) in India  87
The State and the Citizen 
8. The Underperforming State  105
9. Patchwork Experiments  116
10. Corruption: Hope after the Heists?  127
11. A Way to End Poverty?  148
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Emerging Realities 
12. Aam Aadmi and a Universe of Realities  165
13. Politics: A Fourth Master Narrative  183
14. Growth or Environment: A False Choice  202
India and the World
15. Default Choice or a Defaulting Power?  219
16. The Race to Re- Arm  240
17. Dealing with the World: Time to Grow Up  251
Looking Ahead
18. The Next Ten Years  265
Notes  279
Index  299
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Acknowledgments
This book began as a joint exercise with Vijay Joshi, the well- known
economist, author, and emeritus fellow at Merton College in Oxford, who
proposed the idea over a lunch, in January 2012. Eventually, it became clear
that our two writing styles would not fit well, and we decided, amicably, to do
separate books. Vijay was a reassuring sounding board for testing ideas and a
valuable source for suggestions on readings and new lines of thought. Were it
not for him, this book would not have been written.
Thanks are due also to the Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Fund, which helped
with the generous Nehru Fellowship for 2013 and 2014. Mahesh Rangarajan,
director of the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, kindly extended the
hospitality of a room for quiet work.
Over the years of my work as a journalist, I have benefited from conver-
sations with a range of Indian economists spanning two generations: Vijay
Kelkar and Surjit Bhalla, Montek and Isher Ahluwalia, Shankar Acharya
and Rakesh Mohan, plus Bimal Jalan, Nitin Desai, Kirit Parikh, Suman Bery,
Deepak Nayyar, Subir Gokarn, Urjit Patel, Arvind Subramanian, Devesh
Kapur, and many others. Editorial meetings at Business Standard provided
a stimulating forum for freewheeling discussion, enriched by the presence at
different times of Ashok Desai, the late Sudhir Mulji, Deepak Lal, Ajay Shah,
Shubhashis Gangopadhyay, Shyam Saran, Sanjaya Baru, T. C. A. Srinivasa-
Raghavan, and others. Track II dialogues that Tarun Das organized provided
opportunities for interaction with decision makers in half a dozen countries
and provided new perspectives.
To Uday Kotak I owe much, personally and professionally. For the pur-
pose of this book, I must thank him in particular for the clarity of his anal-
ysis and insights with regard to banking and related areas. Thanks are due
to Bharat Sheth and Naresh Kotak for generous hospitality in Mumbai and
Kodaikanal. Colleagues at Business Standard helped in different ways; my
thanks to my long- term compatriot A. K. Bhattacharya, who was always