Trends Towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle.

187 Pages·2012·4.514 MB·English

by  OECD

Nuclear Development
2011
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N U C L E A R E N E R G Y A G E N C Y

Nuclear Development ISBN 978-92-64-16810-7
Trends towards Sustainability
in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
© OECD 2011
NEA No. 6980
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 34 democracies work together to address the
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setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good
practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico,
the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission
takes part in the work of the OECD.
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economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its
members.
This work is published on the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General.
The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of all member countries.
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership
consists of 30 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the
United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission also takes part in the work of the Agency.
The mission of the NEA is:
– to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international
co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly
and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as
– to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to
government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as
energy and sustainable development.
Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive
waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear
fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information.
The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. In
these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in
Vienna, with which it has a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the
nuclear field.
Also available in French under the title:
Vers un cycle du combustible nucléaire durable : évolution et tendances
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the
delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
© OECD 2011
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Cover photos: UO pellets, FBFC manufacturing plant, Romans, France (AREVA, Yann Geoffray); Ulchin nuclear power plant, Republic of Korea;
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spent fuel storage pool, La Hague, Cherbourg, France (AREVA, Jean-Marie Taillat).
FOREWORD
Foreword
In 2002, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) published a report on Trends in the
Nuclear Fuel Cycle, in which it examined current and expected changes in the fuel cycle, so
as to lay the foundation for applying more quantitative approaches to assessing progress.
Since that report, developments have occurred in connection with the development of
nuclear energy and the fuel cycle. In particular, Generation IV reactor systems and
research and development into fuel cycle concepts, such as partitioning and
transmutation, have spurred new thinking. In addition, changes have occurred, and are
expected to continue to occur, in approaches to uranium use, reprocessing, recycling and
waste disposal. Furthermore, international initiatives have sought to co-ordinate and
integrate work related to the fuel cycle, recognising the need to ensure that any such
developments do not increase the potential for proliferation.
This report assesses trends in the nuclear fuel cycle over the past ten years, for the
next ten years and for the longer-term future with a specific focus on considerations of
sustainability. As part of that process, a number of criteria that define sustainability have
been adopted for use in the comparative assessment. This is necessary since there is no
single consensus on the meaning or evaluation of sustainability in the nuclear fuel cycle.
In performing the comparative assessment, a review was carried out of the trends
towards sustainability that have been driven by changes in technologies and therefore
largely stem from industry needs for improved performance and continued
demonstration of progress towards economic, safety, environmental and safeguards
goals. At the international level, the report considers the global efforts made in relation to
the fuel cycle, which have become the dominant mechanism for bringing about major
changes in how the fuel cycle is currently implemented.
However, there is a limit to what industry can achieve in these areas; so national
strategies and policies in a range of representative countries have been examined to see
how well, if at all, they have supported the trend towards more sustainable use of
nuclear energy.
Overall the report identifies a range of improvements that have been evolutionary in
nature and then considers the likelihood of more revolutionary changes such as moving
towards closed fuel cycles, either partially (plutonium only) or completely (plutonium and
minor actinides), and more advanced waste management approaches.
The current report forms part of the programme of work of the OECD/NEA Committee
for Technical and Economic Studies on Nuclear Energy Development and the Fuel Cycle
(NDC) and has been endorsed by that Committee.

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TRENDS TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, ISBN 978-92-64-16810-7, © OECD 2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
This report was produced by an expert group (see list in Annex 1) under the
chairmanship of Robert Speranzini from Canada and Hideaki Mineo from Japan, with
contributions and support from the NEA Secretariat, Maria Elena Urso and Ron Cameron.
Special thanks go to Kevin Hesketh and Robert Speranzini who were the lead authors
for Chapters 3 and 4 respectively, and to Stan Gordelier for his consultant support on
Chapter 2 and peer review of Chapters 1 to 3. The active participation of the expert group
members is gratefully acknowledged.

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TRENDS TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, ISBN 978-92-64-16810-7, © OECD 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents
Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 9
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 19
1.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 19
1.2. Summary of the previous report ...................................................................................... 20
1.3. International initiatives with a focus on sustainability ................................................ 22
1.4. Sustainability elements for the nuclear fuel cycle ......................................................... 23
2. The nuclear fuel cycle in perspective .................................................................................... 27
2.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 27
2.2. World energy and electricity demand .............................................................................2 7
2.3. The benefits of nuclear power ..........................................................................................3 0
2.4. The challenges to nuclear power expansion .................................................................. 38
2.5. The nuclear fuel cycle: an overview ................................................................................. 40
2.6. The nuclear fuel cycle: front end ...................................................................................... 44
2.7. The nuclear fuel cycle: irradiation stage – reactor operations .....................................5 8
2.8. The nuclear fuel cycle: back end ...................................................................................... 64
2.9. The nuclear fuel cycle: future developments ......................................................................... 69 
3. Technical progress .................................................................................................................... 79
3.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 79
3.2. Evolution trends in the current fuel cycle ....................................................................... 80
3.3. The longer-term future, options and R&D trends ............................................................... 106 
4. Progress towards sustainability: technology, policy and international trends .......... 135
4.1. Sustainability of trends in nuclear fuel cycles ............................................................. 135
4.2. Trends in countries and global efforts for nuclear fuel cycle developments .......... 147
4.3. Comments on policies ............................................................................................................ 160 
5. Conclusions and recommendations .................................................................................... 169
5.1. Evolutionary trends .......................................................................................................... 170
5.2. Advanced fuel cycles ........................................................................................................ 174
Annex 1: List of experts ............................................................................................................. 179
Annex 2: Acronyms .................................................................................................................... 180
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TRENDS TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, ISBN 978-92-64-16810-7, © OECD 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of figures
2.1. Trend for world primary energy demand by fuel .......................................................... 28
2.2. Global electricity production by energy source ..............................................................3 0
2.3. Relation between UN HDI and electricity use in 60 countries in 1997 ........................ 30
2.4. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country .......................................................... 32
2.5. Sources of global anthropogenic CO emissions ............................................................ 33
2
2.6. Greenhouse gas emissions of selected energy chains ................................................... 34
2.7. PM releases of selected energy chains .......................................................................... 37
10
2.8. Mortality resulting from the emissions of major pollutants from German
energy chains during normal operation in 2000 ................................................................... 37
2.9. The nuclear fuel cycle – once-through and closed options .......................................... 41
2.10. Annual uranium production and requirements, 1945-2009 ....................................... 44
2.11. Average annual uranium spot price, exploration and mine development
expenditures, 1970-2007 ........................................................................................................... 45
2.12. Total identified resources by cost category from 2001 to 2009 .................................. 46
2.13. Global distribution of identified resources ................................................................... 49
2.14. Annual world uranium production capacity and NEA projected world uranium
reactor requirements, 2007 to 2030 ......................................................................................... 50
2.15. Enrichment capacity in NEA countries .......................................................................... 54
2.16. Nuclear growth from 1954 to 2010 – annual statistics ................................................ 58
2.17. The evolution of nuclear power plant designs ............................................................. 59
2.18. The effect of reactor life extension on world nuclear capacity ................................. 61
2.19. Recent and anticipated construction times in Asia, as of 2007 ................................. 64
2.20. Double strata scheme ....................................................................................................... 74
2.21. Fast reactor cycle .............................................................................................................. 75
3.1. Uranium production by mining methods ....................................................................... 80
3.2. Enrichment capacity in NEA countries by method ........................................................ 86
3.3. Fuel failures in US facilities from 1980 to 2007 ............................................................... 88
3.4. Used fuel: residual fissile content and post-irradiation treatment ............................. 91
3.5. Neutron yield per neutron absorbed η=ν/(1+α), for 235U and selected plutonium
and minor actinide isotopes ................................................................................................... 117
3.6. Radiotoxicity of 51 GWd/MtHM spent UOX fuel showing primary contributors
as a function of time after discharge .................................................................................... 120
3.7. Decay heat contributors in spent LWR fuel, 51 GWd/MtHM discharge burn-up ..... 121
3.8. Comparison of thorium and uranium cycles ................................................................ 123
3.9. Fission neutron yield per absorption for 233U, 235U and 239Pu ....................................... 123
List of tables
2.1. World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario ....................................................2 9
2.2. Uranium resources ............................................................................................................. 47
2.3. Lifetime of uranium resources .......................................................................................... 47
2.4. Uranium production by country in 2008 ......................................................................... 50
2.5. Major uranium conversion companies ............................................................................ 52
2.6. Major enrichment companies with approximate 2010 capacity ................................. 53
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
2.7. Projected enrichment plant capacity at the end of 2015 and 2020 .............................. 55
2.8. Commercial fuel fabrication plants ................................................................................. 56
2.9. Nuclear power plants under construction, as at the start of 2011 .............................. 62
2.10. Main designs for nuclear power plants for deployment by 2020 ............................... 63
2.11. Reprocessing capacities in NEA countries .................................................................... 65
2.12. Approximate quantities of radioactive waste and spent fuel per GWe-year ........... 67
2.13. VLLW, LLW and ILW repository sites and projects in selected NEA countries ........ 68
2.14. Goals for Generation IV nuclear energy systems ......................................................... 70
2.15. Characteristics of Generation IV nuclear energy systems .......................................... 70
3.1. Percentage distribution of world uranium production by production method ......... 80
3.2. Best practices in uranium mining and milling for different stages in the
lifespan of facilities ................................................................................................................... 83
3.3. Fuels for LWRs ................................................................................................................... 108
3.4. Fuels for FRs ....................................................................................................................... 109
3.5. Fuels for HTGRs ................................................................................................................. 112
4.1. Impact of evolutionary trends (during the past ten years and up to 2020) on
sustainability elements ........................................................................................................... 137
4.2. Amount of spent nuclear fuel and uranium consumption in the FC strategies
involving different degrees of recycling ............................................................................... 146

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TRENDS TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, ISBN 978-92-64-16810-7, © OECD 2011