Trends & Possibilities

26 Pages·2011·2.03 MB·English

Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
1
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Panama Liberia Marshall Is Bahamas Hong Kong
TTrreennddss && PPoossssiibbiilliittiieess
For the Development of the Shipping Industry
Martin Stopford, Managing Director
Clarkson Research Ltd
(cid:440)land, Nordic Shipping Policy Seminar
5th May 2011
2
Singapore Greece Malta China Cyprus
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 1
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
1. Shipping Today
2. Volatile Market;
3. Globalization;
4. Climate Change;
5. Energy Costs. I’m going
Business
Class next
time
3
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• Define Marine
Industry
• Top 10 Flags &
shipowners
• European versus
Asian shipping
• Piracy trends
HMCS Fredericton’s boarding party conducts an approach
operation and boarding to investigate a suspected pirate skiff in
the Gulf of Aden.
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 2
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
Marine related activities 2004 $ billion
$ bn maritime 0 100 200 300 400 500
business
Merchant Shipping
Naval Shipping
Turnover US$ m. (1) Share
Cruise Industry US$ millions 2004 %
Merchant Shipping 426,297 31%
Ports Maritime Tourism 209,190 15%
Total marine fisheries 206,103 15%
Shipbuilding (merchant) Naval Shipping 173,891 13%
Total 173,482 13%
Total marine resources 116,933 8%
Shipbuilding (naval) Offshore Oil & Gas 113,366 8%
Seafood Processing 99,327 7%
Marine Equipment Marine Equipment 90,636 7%
Marine Fishing 69,631 5%
Offshore Oil & Gas Shipbuilding (merchant) 46,948 3%
Shipbuilding (naval) 35,898 3%
Renewable Energy Ports 31,115 2%
Marine Aquaculture 29,696 2%
Minerals & Aggregates Cruise Industry 14,925 1%
Research & Development 13,221 1%
Marine Fishing Marine Services 8,507 1%
Seaweed 7,448 1%
Marine Aquaculture Marine IT 4,441 0%
Minerals & Aggregates 3,409 0%
Seaweed Marine Biotechnology 2,724 0%
Ocean Survey 2,504 0%
Seafood Processing Education & Training 1,911 0%
Submarine Telecoms 1,401 0%
Renewable Energy 1 59 0%
Other Total Marine Activities 1,386,645 100%
This chart uses data from Table 2.1
5
Source: Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford, page 49 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Fleet of the 189 Flag States
1,200
Europe Asia Panama & Liberia USA Others
1,000
The fleet is growing
very fast Other
800 Countries
n
o
milli
ns - 600 USA
o
oss t Panama
gr & Liberia
400
Asia
200
W Europe
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
6
Source: Lloyds Register of Shipping and CRSL World Fleet Monitor
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 3
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
Flag State Fleets
Europe USA Asia Panama & Liberia Others
100%
Other
80% Countries
s
n
o 60%
ss t USA
o Panama
of gr 40% & Liberia
% Asia
20% W Europe
0%
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
7
Source: Lloyds Register of Shipping
and CRSL World Fleet Monitor CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
TToopp TTeenn FFllaaggss ooff RReeggiissttrraattiioonn 22001111
Panama 208.20
Liberia
EU
Marshall Is 63.5 Asia 20%
28%
Hong Kong 54.7
Oth
Bahamas 52.30 S Asia Europe
1% 5%
Singapore 44.70
M East
Greece 41.70 1%
Africa
Malta 37.3 12% Americas
33%
China P.R. 37.1
Cyprus 21.9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2
1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Million Gross Tonnes in Fleet
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 4
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
TToopp TTeenn SShhiippoowwnniinngg CCoouunnttrriieess
Greece 140.20
Japan
Germany 85.8 Asia
China P. R. 82.8 Pacific EU
37% 37%
49.50
Norway
USA 44.70
Africa, M
S Korea 39.80 East, S Other
Italy 32.9 Asia Europe
7% America 11%
Denmark 30.5
s
Taiwan 23.7 8%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2
1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Million Gross Tonnes in Fleet
117799 ssttaatteess hhaavvee nnaattiioonnaallss wwhhoo oowwnn sshhiippss 9
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Comparing EU & Asian Shipping
38
40
34 EU
35 33
Asia Pacific
30
25
21
20
17
14
15
10
10
10
6 5
5
0
0 s n s s
1 e o e e
rders 20 Deliveri2010 Demoliti Sal Purchas 10
O
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 5
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
Ship Size Trends in 2011
Trends in average size of ships
• Average size of 120
Tankers Bulker Container
merchant ships
wt) 100
d
can change 0
0
0
• Bulk carriers and size ( 80
Container ships ship 60
e
got bigger during ag
ver 40
the decade A
• Tanker size still 20
falling
0
1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1
8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
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Piracy Activity 2008-2011
27 ships held
35 at end March
Other incidents
2011
h Vessels captured
nt 30
o Vessels held (end month)
m
n 25 17
s i The 27 ships currently held are unsuccessful
el 20 worth US$354.8 million. Half the
s attempts
s value is tankers
e In March
v 15
of 2011
er 10
b
m 1 ship
u 5
N captured
by pirates
0
in March
8 8 9 9 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2011
n- ul- n- ul- n- ul- n-
a J a J a J a
J J J J
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 6
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
1. World Economy
The shipping
2. Ship Demand
industry is in
the middle of a
major market
cycle
charterer
3. Ship Supply s
2 e
nd at
han Orders Scrapping ht r
d g
price owner Frei
s Balance

Sheet
13
Driven by Cash
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Earnings Trend 1980-2011
60 Bulk Shipping Fundamentals balance
SERIOUS SURPLUS SMALL SURPLUS SMALL SHORTAGE SMALL…
50
y ((CCllaarrkksseeaa IInnddeexx iiss aa wweeiigghhtteedd
0/da 40 aabbvvuueellkrkraaeeggrrsese,, ooccfofo enenaattaarrnininniinenergrgsssshh bbiippyyss tt a&a&nn ggkkaaeessrr..ss)),,
0
0
$
x
de 30
n
a I
e $22,800/day
ks 20
r
a
Cl $12,000/day
Here
10 $8,500/day rehD The Great
1980s Recession earsress Shipping Boom
a
0 l
01234567890123456789012345678901
88888888889999999999000000000011
99999999999999999999000000000000
11111111111111111111222222222222
14
Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD
Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 7
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
Sea Trade Scenarios 1950-2010
17
16
es 15 Growth of sea trade China Imports
nn 14 Period %pa World less China
n to 1123 1950-60 7.5%
o 1961-70 9.1%
billi 1101 1971-80 4.8%
s 9 1981-90 0.9%
rt 8 1991-00 4.1%
o
p 7 2001-09 2.9%
m
6
i
e 5
n
r 4
o
b 3
a
e 2
s 1
0
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 15
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Sea Trade Scenarios 1950-2020
17
7% scenario
16
s
e 15 Growth of sea trade
n
n 14 Period %pa
n to 1123 1950-60 7.5% 4% scenario
o 1961-70 9.1%
billi 1101 1971-80 4.8% 3% scenario
s 9 1981-90 0.9% 1% scenario
rt 8 1991-00 4.1%
o
p 7 2001-09 2.9%
m
6
i
e 5
n
r 4
o
b 3 China Imports
a
e 2 World less China
s 1 7% i
0
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 16
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 8
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
World Shipbuilding 35 Year Cycle
100
es 80
ri
e The last shipbuilding peak
v
eli 60 was in 1975 when output
D reached 36 million GT

T
G
n 40
o
illi Rofe csatrpuacctuitryi ng
M
20 1976-86
0
Source Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford (2009)
1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
17
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World Shipbuilding 35 Year Cycle
Looks like 2010 was the peak
100 of the shipbuilding boom with
96 m GT deliveries
es 80
ri
e The last shipbuilding peak
v
eli 60 was in 1975 when output
D reached 36 million GT

T
G
n 40
o
illi Rofe csatrpuacctuitryi ng
M
20 1976-86
0
Source Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford (2009)
1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
18
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 9
Trends & Possibilities in Shipping
World Merchant Fleet Growth
12%
9.7% growth in 2010
a
p
h 10%
wt
o 8%
r
g
%
6%
et 1980s
e
nt fl 4% recession
a 2%
h
c
r
e 0%
m
d
rl -2%
o
W
-4%
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 19
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Supply/Demand Balance Today
Bill.
Tons
M. Dwt
Cargo
Fleet Surplus
• The bars show the building up
11
volume of trade (on
1400
the right axis) and Trade scenario 10
twhoer lldin fele seht o(wons tthhee 1200 Sea Trade 2S0h0o3r-t2a0g0e8 9
left axis) 8
1000 World Fleet (Dwt)
• There was a major 7
surplus after the 800 6
shipbuilding bubble
.. 5
in the 1970s
600
• Today we are 4
moving from 400 3
shortage in the
2
2000s to surplus in
200
the 2010s 1
0 0
357913579135791357913579
666677777888889999900000
999999999999999999900000
111111111111111111122222
20
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Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 10