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United States Trends in Wilderness Visitors
Department
ofAgriculture
and Boundary Waters
Visits:
Forest Service
Intermountain Canoe Area, Shining Rock,
Research Station
Research Paper and Desolation Wildernesses
INT-RP-483
October 1995
David N. Cole
o
Alan E. Watson •X.
•rytSv;
Joseph W. Roggenbuck -S3
CD; 1
The Authors Visitorevaluations of litter in wilderness also consis-
tently improved. Perhaps the mostdramatic ofthese
David N. Cole is a Researcli Biologistforthe Aldo changes was the decrease in wilderness participation
Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Missoula, MT. by those less than 25 years old. Othervariables, such
Dr. Cole received his A.B. degree in geography from as previous experience in this specificwilderness and
the University of California, Berkeley, in 1972. He re- participation in hunting, increased substantially in some
ceived his Ph.D. degree, also in geography, from the ofthese wildernesses butdecreased substantially in
University of Oregon in 1977. He has written many others.
papers on wilderness management, particularly the Characteristics ofthe people who visitwilderness ar-
ecological effects of recreational use. eas have changed morethanthetypesoftripstheytake,
Alan E. Watson is a Research Social Scientistforthe their evaluations of the conditions they encounter, or
Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Missoula, theirpreferencesforconditions and management. Typi-
MT. Dr. Watson attended the School of Forestry and cal wildernessvisits remain relatively unchanged. Some
Wildlife Resources, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and evidence suggests that solo visitors are more common
and organized groupsare less common, andthatgroups
State University, Blacksburg, receiving a bachelor's,
a master's, and in 1983, a Ph.D. degree. His research are smallerand stays are shorter. However, all ofthese
interests are primarily in wilderness experience quality, changes are subtle at best; in most cases, differences
including the influences ofconflict, solitude, and visitor were not statistically significant.
No clear evidence supports the ideathatthe wilder-
impacts.
ness visitors oftoday are any more or less tolerant
Joseph W. Roggenbuck is a Professor of Forest of encounters with othergroupsthan earliervisitors.
Recreation, Department of Forestry, Virginia Polytech- Among Shining Rock users, tolerance of encounters
nic and State University, Blacksburg. Dr. Roggenbuck appears to have increased overtime. However, itde-
received his B.S. and M.S. degrees from the University creased among Boundary Waters users and was un-
of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and his Ph.D. degree in forest changed among Desolation overnightusers. Again, most
recreation from Utah State University, Logan, in 1975. ofthesedifferenceswere subtle aswell as inconsistent.
He haswritten many papersonwilderness management, Also no clear evidence emerged for adecline in the
particularly on use and user characteristics. impact potential ofgroups orfor a shiftfrom consump-
tive to contemplative activities, trends suggested by
Research Summary Lucas (1985) forthe Bob Marshall.
The relatively small numberofvariablesthat changed
To better understand trends in wildernessvisitors, we consistently suggestthat managers should be skeptical
replicated earliervisitorsurveys in the BoundaryWaters of the broad generalizations aboutwilderness visitor
Canoe Area Wilderness, MN, in the Shining RockWil- trends that are occasionally advanced. Little evidence
derness, NC, and in the Desolation Wilderness, CA. supports the ideathat the visitors of today orthe trips
In addition to differences between these areas in re- they take are substantially differentfrom those of a de-
gion and predominant mode oftravel, studies varied cade ortwo ago. In the caseswhere importantchanges
methodologically and in the time period studied. The have occurred, the existence of change can only be
years 1969 and 1991 were compared in the Boundary identified with any confidence by conducting avisitor
Waters, 1978 and 1990 in Shining Rock, and 1972 and study specificto thatwilderness.
1990 in Desolation. Results were also compared with
an earlierstudy ofvisitors to the Bob Marshall Wilder- Acknowledgments
ness Complex, MT, in 1970 and 1982 (Lucas 1985).
Only five out of 83 variables changed consistently in Wewanttothankthe numerousindividualswho helped
thesethreewildernesses andthe Bob Marshall. Inthese with the datacollection, entry, and analysis of all these
wildernesses, visitor age and educational attainment visitorsurveys. We are particularlygratefulto Bob Lucas
increased as did the proportion of females and the pro- and George Stankey who initiated the original visitor
portion of visitors who had been to otherwildernesses. surveys we were able to replicate.
Intermountain Research Station
32425th Street
Ogden, UT84401
Contents Page Page
Introduction 1 Synthesis 30
Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Strong Consistent Trends 30
Case Study 2 Weak Consistent Trends 32
Study Methods 2 Variables That Did Not Change 33
Visitor Characteristics 3 Strong Inconsistent Changes 34
Visit Characteristics 5 Weak Inconsistent Changes 34
Social Conditions and Evaluations of Conclusions 35
Those Conditions 5 Conclusions 36
Visitor Preferences For Social Conditions 6 Few Clear, Consistent Trends 36
Conclusions 7 Visitor Characteristics Changed Most 36
Shining Rock Wilderness Case Study 8 Overnight Visits Have Changed More
Study Methods 8 Than Day Visits 36
VisitorCharacteristics 9 Typical Wilderness Visits Are Relatively
Visit Characteristics 11 Unchanged 36
Wilderness Conditions and Evaluations of Less Litter 36
Those Conditions 12 No ClearTrends in Tolerance of
Visitor Preferences forSocial Conditions Interparty Contact 36
and Management 14 No Clear Change in the Impact Potential
Conclusions 16 of Groups 36
Desolation Wilderness Case Study 16 No Clear Shift From Consumptive to
Study Methods 17 Contemplate Activities 36
Visitor Characteristics 18 Trends inAttitudesAbout Natural
Visit Characteristics 22 Ecosystems Are Inconsistent 37
Wilderness Conditions and Evaluations Purist Attitudes About Trails Are
of Those Conditions 24 Also Declining 37
Visitor Preferences for Social Conditions Overall Ratings of Trip Quality
and Management 26 Remain Very High 37
Conclusions 29 Management Implications 37
References 38
Trends in Wilderness Visitors
and Boundary Waters
Visits:
Canoe Area, Shiining Rock,
and Desolation Wildernesses
David N. Cole
Alan E. Watson
Joseph W. Roggenbuck
sizes, shorterlengths ofstay, less use ofoutfitters,
Introduction
more summeruse relative to fall use, a wider distri-
bution ofuse across trailheads, some shift in activi-
In 1964, the WildernessActcreatedtheNational
ties from more consumptive to more contemplative,
Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS). That sys-
andless dependence onwood fires in 1982. The same
tem—originally54wildernesses and 9 million acres—
study also found an increase among 1982visitors in
has changed substantially since then. Both the num-
the proportion ofwomen, educationlevels, and pro-
berofwildernesses and wilderness acreage have
fessional £uid technical occupations, and a decrease
increased more thaneleven-fold. Wilderness diversity
inamoimtofpreviousexperienceintheBobMarshall
has also increased. Thelargestwilderness—Wrangell-
Wilderness Complex. Visitors in 1982 were more con-
St. Elias—is almost as large as the entire original
NWPS. The smallest wilderness—Oregon Islands— cerned about crowding, conflict, and poortrails and
were less able to find their desired level ofcampsite
at 5 acres is more than 1,000 times smallerthan the
smallestwilderness initiallyincluded in the NWPS. solitude. Theywere more likelythan 1970 visitors
to feel that soil and vegetation impacts were a prob-
Wilderness areas are nolongersohighlyconcentrated
lem and less likelyto feel thatlitterwas aproblem.
inthe West and in the high mountains. Wilderness
These findings have been cited in attempts to gen-
su-eas are found in allbut six states and contain about
eralize about overall trends in wilderness. For ex-
60 percent ofthe basic ecosystem types found in the
ample, Roggenbuckand Lucas (1987) suggestthere
United States (Davis 1989).
maybe a trend toward fewerwilderness impacts per
Althoughthewilderness systemhasclearlychanged,
party, while Roggenbuck and Watson (1988) suggest
relativelylittle information is available abouthowin-
thatgroups aregettingsmaller, and stays aregetting
dividualwildernessareasandtheirusershavechanged.
shorter. However, these changes maybe unique to
Information abouttrends is needed so management
the Bob MarshallWilderness Complex, which is an
can more effectivelygrapple with currentissues and
unusual area in a numberofways: it is one ofthe
anticipate future issues. This report is the third in a
largestwilderness complexes outside ofAlaska and
recent series that deals with wilderness trends over
the past 10-20 years. The two earlierpapers reported is unusual inthe amount ofhorse, outfitter, and
huntinguse itreceives.
ontrendsinwildernesscampsite conditions anddistri-
The onlyotherlong-term visitor study in a wilder-
butions(Cole 1993; Cole and Hall 1992). This paper
ness-like area was conducted in the back-country
reports on trends in wilderness visits, visitor charac-
ofthe Great Smoky MountainsNational Parkin
teristics, andvisitor attitudes and preferences inthree
1973 and 1983 (Burde and Curran 1986). Trend data
wildernesses in different parts ofthe United States.
were available foronlyafewvariables. As intheBob
Priorto thevisitortrend studies reported here,
Marshall, recentvisitors were older, more likelyto
there had beenonlyone detailedvisitortrend study—
be women, and they came in smaller parties. In con-
visitors to the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex,
Montana—the contiguous Bob Marshall, Scapegoat, trasttotheBobMarshall, recentvisitors tothe Great
SmokyMountainsNational Parkhad more experi-
and GreatBearWildernesses(Lucas 1985). Thatstudy
ence with wilderness, were more likely to be family
found few differences in characteristics ofvisitors to
groups, and had no change in length ofstay.
the Bob Marshall in 1970 and 1982. The differences
The need for a betterunderstanding ofwilderness
considered to be most pronounced were more hikers
visitortrendsled usto imdertake studies in agreater
relativetohorse andmuleusers in 1982, smallerparty
diversityofwilderness areas. It was only possible to
1
studytrends in wildernesseswithpastvisitor survey and 1991, recreationuse increased about 75 percent,
data; hence options were limited. We selected three from 800,000visitor-days to 1.4 millionvisitor-days.
wildernesses: the BoundaryWaters CanoeArea in Motorizeduse declined from about38 percentoftotal
Minnesota, the ShiningRock in North Carolina, and use to about 10 percent. Overnight and motorized
the Desolation in California. When added to existing users must obtain a permit forentry. This system
datafromtheBobMarshall,thesecase studiesprovide limitsthe numberofovernightgroups thatcan enter
examples from four different regions with substan- at each trailhead everyday; as aresult, use is now
tial wilderness acreage. They encompass substantial distributed more evenly across trailheads. Eightout
variation in mode oftravel—withtwopredominantly of62 water access trailheads accounted fornearly
hikerwildernesses, one canoe wilderness, and one 80 percent ofuse in 1969. In 1990, the eightmost
wilderness with substantial stockuse. However, the populartrailheads accounted forjust 50 percent of
examples donotvary muchinuse intensity. Although alluse.
the Bob MarshallWilderness Complex is relatively Use is widely distributed internallybecause there
lightlyused, the threewildernesses examinedinthis are 260,000 acres ofsurface waterforpaddUng(1,175
report are all heavilyused. lakes of10 acres ormore and several hundred miles
The characteristics examined and the periods of ofstream)and 178miles ofportagetrailbetweenlakes.
studyvarybetween areas. Desolationvisitors were Visitors arereqviiredto camp atdesignatedcampsites,
surveyed in 1972 and 1990; BoundaryWatersvisitors exceptin afewremote places. There are over 2,000
were surveyed in 1969 and 1991; and ShiningRock designated campsites in the wilderness. Each desig-
visitors were surveyed in 1978 and 1990. Only over- nated site has a fireplace and atoilet. In 1991, the
nightvisitors were studied at BoundaryWaters; at group sizelimitwas 10, alimitthatwasfirstimposed
ShiningRock, allvisitors were studied as a single duringthe 1970's. Otherregulations include a maxi-
population; and day-users and overnightvisitorswere mum stay atanycampsite of14 days and a prohibi-
studied separately at Desolation. Due to these differ- tion onnonbumable, disposable food and beverage
ences, eachwilderness is treated as a separate case containers.
study.
As wiU become apparent, the results ofeach case Study Methods
studyare detailed and complex. Theinterested reader
can derive considerable information from these de- Sampling—In 1969, field workers contacted a
tailed results. Others mayfind iteasierto skip over sample ofovernightvisitors exitingfrom 14 moder-
much ofthe detail, concentratingonthe conclusions ate andheavy-use accesses. These access points ac-
presented atthe end ofeach case study (pages 7, 16, counted for more than 70 percent ofall use in 1969.
and 29) and the synthesis, summary, and manage- Visitors exitingfromlightlyused accesses were not
mentimplications sections atthe end ofthis report. included. Allvisitors overthe age of15 were asked
to participate inthe survey. Ifthey agreed to partici-
pate (99 percent did), theywere given the option of
Boundary Waters Canoe Area completingthe survey atthattime orprovidingtheir
name and address forlaterreceipt ofthe survey at
Wilderness Case Study
theirhomes. The 1969 surveywas conducted on 36
The BoundaryWaters CanoeAreaWUdemess is a days between mid-May and early September, and it
provided 152usable siirveys(73percentresponserate).
1,086,914-acre wilderness innorthernMinnesota. It
was incorporated into the NationalWilderness Pres- The sample in 1991 was designed to replicate, as
ervation Systembythe 1964Wilderness Act and was nearly as possible, the 1969 sample. Like the 1969
enlarged slightlyin 1978. Itis the largestForest Ser- sample, itwas not strictlyrepresentative ofBound-
vice wilderness east ofthe RockyMo\int£iins and is aryWaters' users. The specific weekends and week-
days when sampling was conducted were chosen to
the mostheavilyused wilderness in the entire coun-
approximate the days when the 1969 samplingwas
try.Althoughitreceivesmoretotalrecreationusethan
conducted. Interviewers contacted overnightvisitors
eitherthe Desolation or ShiningRockWildernesses,
who were enteringon these target dates atthe same
useperacre is onlyabout25 percentofthosetwowil-
accesses surveyed in 1969. Names and addresses of
dernesses. Lakes setin aglacially scoured, low-relief
landscape characterize the area. Mostuse is by non- allparty members were obtained, and these visitors
were mailed aquestionnaire aftertheyreturned from
motorizedcanoe, althoughmotors are allowedonabout
one-quarterofthe water surface. Somehikingoccurs. theirtrip. This sample produced 215 usable surveys
In 1969,visitors were surveyed inastudyconducted (74 percentresponse rate).
byStankey(1971, 1973). The studyreportedhere rep- Analysis—Datawere reported onlyfor overnight
licatedportions ofStanke^s survey. Between 1969 visitors who entered (1991) orexited (1969) at 14
2
moderate- and heavy-usetrailheads. However, an op- Thevariables analyzed inthis waywere educational
portunistic sample of80 visitors to 25 light-use trail- attainment and household income.
heads was also conducted in 1991. This allowed us Results have been subdivided into four categories:
to evaluate the representativeness ofour sample of visitorcharacteristics, visitcharacteristics, wilder-
overnightvisitors at moderate- and heavy-use trail- ness conditions and evaluations ofthose conditions,
heads bycomparingitto our sample ofvisitors at and visitorpreferences for social conditions.
all 39 trailheads sampled in 1991. These trailheads
accounted for 80 percent ofthe overnightuse in the Visitor Characteristics
BoimdeiryWaters in 1991. Responses oflow-use trail-
head entrants were weighted so thatthe proportion Bothsociodemographiccharacteristicsandmeasures
ofresponses from each trailhead reflected the pro- ofprevious wilderness experience can be described.
portional distribution ofpermits across trailheads. Sociodemographic Trends—Most ofthe socio-
The significance ofdifferences between our 1991 demographic variables studied chemged significantly
sample ofvisitors who used the accesses sampled in between 1969 and 1991 (table 1). Visitors were older
1969 and our broader sample of1991 overnightvisi- in 1991 than in 1969, and they had higherlevels of
tors were evaluated using i-tests and chi-square educational attainment and incomes. Theywere also
tests. No significant differences between the sample less likelyto be students and more likelyto be mem-
ofvisitors to trailheads surveyed in 1969 and visitors bers ofaconservation organization. The proportionof
to thelarger set oftrailheads were found. This sug- visitorsthatwere female (29 percent)was unchanged
gests thatresults are likelyto be generally appli- overthe period.
cable to all summer-season overnightvisitors—not Lucas (1964) reported that in 1960, 30 percent of
just those who used the high- and moderate-use paddle canoeists were under age 16 in the Quetico-
trailheads included in the replicated sample. Superior area (ofwhich BoundaryWaters is a part);
We tested the significance ofdifferences between in 1991, only 9 percent ofovernightvisitors were
1969 and 1991 with ^-tests and chi-square. For some underthe age of16. Alongwith ourfindingthatthe
variables, transformationswere madetomeetassump- median age ofour sample increased from 25 in 1969
tionsofnormahty and homogeneousvariances. Differ- to 37 in 1991, these figxires suggest a major shift in
ences were considered statistically significantwhen clientele—firom children and youngadults to mature
probabilities were less than or equal to 0.05. adults.
Forsomeofthevariables, such ashousehold income, Abouttwo-thirds ofthe overnightvisitors to the
responses were in discrete classes, some ofwhichhad BoundaryWaters come firom the state ofMinnesota.
noupperboimd (suchasincomegreaterthan $75,000). For most ofthe sociodemographic characteristics we
Forthesevariables, the significance ofdifferenceswas studied, wilderness visitors differed substantially
assessed with f-tests based on the midpoints ofeach fi-omthegeneralpopiilationofMinnesota. Differences
class. For classes without an upperorlowerbound, between BoimdaryWaters visitors and the general
a likely mediem value was assigned to each response populationdecreasedbetween 1969 and 1991 forsome
in thatclass. Forexample, allvisitors whoresponded characteristics and increased forothers. Males, stu-
thattheirincome was greaterthan $75,000 were as- dents, and conservation organization members were
signed an income of$100,000. The median was used overrepresented amongwilderness visitors inboth
as a measure ofcentral tendency and was calculated 1969 and 1990. Duringthis period, students' over-
by identifyingthe class that contained the median representation declined, the overrepresentation of
andthen interpolatedtoestimatethe precise median. conservation organization members increased, and
—
Table 1 Sociodemographiccharacteristicsofovernightvisitors, BoundaryWaters Canoe AreaWilder-
ness, 1969 and 1991.
Median Conservation Median
Year Mean educational organization household
ofstudy age attainment Students Females members Income
Years Percentofovernightvisitors 1990dollars
1969 25 13.1 51 29 14 31,500
1991 37 16.4 18 29 35 43,000
Sign. <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.85 <0.001 <0.001
3
Table2—Educational attainmentof 1969 and 1991 overnightvisitorstothe BoundaryWaters CanoeAreaWil-
derness, and ofthe population of Minnesota.
Educational attainment
Not high High
Year school school Some College Graduate
ofstudy graduate graduate college graduate study Median
Percentofovernightvisitors/population -- Vears
BoundaryWaters
visitors
1969 20 29 30 6 15 13.1
1991 6 16 22 15 41 16.4
Minnesota
population
1970 42 35 12 ' 7 4 12.3
1990 18 33 28 16 6 12.9
the overrepresentation ofmales was unchanged. In overthe age of15 wereincluded inthe survey. When
1969, wildernessvisitors had shghtlyhigherlevels the 9 percent ofvisitors whowere under 16years old
ofeducational attainment and income than the gen- are included, the median age ofall overnightvisitors
eral population (tables 2 and 3). Forthesetwovari- was 34 (compared to a median age ofthe general
ables, differencesbetweenwildernessvisitors andthe population of33).
general populationincreasedgreatlyoverthe period. WildernessExperience Trends—Allmeasuresof
In 1969, wildernessvisitors were substantially
previous wilderness experience changed significantly
youngerthan the general population ofMinnesota;
between 1969 and 1991. Theproportionofvisitors on
by 1991, the median age ofovernightvisitorswas ap-
theirfirstwilderness trip decreased, andthe propor-
proximatelythe same asthe median age forthegen-
tionthat had been to wildernesses otherthan the
eral population. The median age ofsurveyrespon-
BoimdaryWaters increased (table 4), The typical
dents in 1991 was 36; however, onlygroup members
1991 uservisits wilderness about as frequently as
Table3—Annual household income in 1990dollarsof 1969and 1991 visitorstothe BoundaryWaters CanoeAreaWilderness,
and ofthe population of Minnesota.^
Annual household Income
Year 10,000- 20,000- 35,000- 50,000-
ofstudy <10,000 19,999 34,999 49,999 74,999 >75,000 Median
Percentofovernigtitvisitors/population 1990dollars
Wilderness
visitors
1969 7 6 45 28 7 7 31,500
1991 4 9 26 24 23 14 43,000
Minnesota
population
1970 17 - 17 31 18 11 6 29,000
1990 14 17 25 20 16 8 31,000
^Incomesof1969and 1991 visitorsandfromthe 1970censuswereadjustedusingtheimplicitpriceinflatorforgrossnationalproduct.
Classeswereadjustedtobeconstantbetweenyears.Thisrequiredsomeinterpolation.
—
Table4 Previouswilderness experienceofovernightvisitors, BoundaryWaters Canoe
AreaWilderness, 1969 and 1991.
Wildernessexperience variable 1969 1991 Significance
First-timewilderness visitors (percent) 31 12 <0.001
Experience in otherwilderness areas (percent) 45 58 .01
Mean age atfirstwildernessvisit (years) 16 25 <.001
4
