Table Of ContentTransportation and
Logistics in a
Changing World
THE JOURNEY BACK TO PROFITABLE GROWTH
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TRANSPORTATION
AND LOGISTICS IN A
CHANGING WORLD
THE JOURNEY BACK TO PROFITABLE GROWTH
JENS RIEDL
HADY FARAG
DOROTA KORENKIEWICZ
October 2016 | The Boston Consulting Group
CONTENTS
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7 THE ELUSIVE GOAL OF PROFITABLE GROWTH
9 ASSESSING THE INDUSTRY’S PERFORMANCE
Growth Has Not Led to High Returns
Performance Varied Widely Among Segments
Individual Companies Signifcantly Outperformed
19 THE CRITICAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS
Success in All Segments
Leading Practices in Road Transport
Distinct Approaches in Freight Forwarding
The Hallmarks of Contract Logistics
25 GETTING AHEAD OF THE MEGATRENDS
Six Critical Megatrends
The Implications for Companies in Key Segments
29 STARTING THE JOURNEY
31 NOTE TO THE READER
2 | Transportation and Logistics in a changing world
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
hy have some transportation and logistics (T&L) companies
Wsucceeded in combining strong growth with high returns, while for
others this has been an elusive goal? To fnd the answer, The Boston
Consulting Group conducted an industry-level analysis of critical perfor-
mance metrics and complemented it with detailed analyses of business
segments and individual companies. Transportation and Logistics in a
Changing World: The Journey Back to Proftable Growth presents our
fndings and discusses the factors that are critical to achieving higher
returns in the near and long terms.
Despite sound revenue growth in recent years, only a few T&L
companies have managed to enjoy higher profits.
• BCG analyzed the revenues and margins (calculated using earn-
ings before interest and taxes, or EBIT) of approximately 500 glob-
al T&L companies. We found that revenues and average EBIT
margins grew at nearly the same rate from 2005 through 2007.
Then, a small gap between the two increasingly widened. By the
end of 2014, revenues had grown by 22%, while EBIT margins had
grown by only 2%.
• Companies that manage to combine strong growth with high
returns set themselves apart in two ways: they understand the
success factors and related best practices that are critical to
maximizing their profts in the market today, and they proactively
position themselves to capture opportunities arising from the
megatrends reshaping the global economy, such as urbanization
and digitization.
• To join the ranks of the top performers, many T&L companies will
need to make a fundamental paradigm shif—from pursuing
growth for its own sake to fnding avenues for growth that gener -
ate high returns in an increasingly complex and competitive
business environment.
The Boston Consulting Group | 3
Our industry-level analysis revealed comparatively low returns,
measured in terms of return on capital employed (ROCE) and to-
tal shareholder return (TSR).
• The ROCE for T&L from 2011 through 2015 was 10.1%, placing the
industry 18th in BCG’s 2016 Value Creators ranking. T&L’s ROCE
was at the low end of the range for the weighted average cost of
capital (9% to 12%) for industries included in the study.
• During the fve-year period from 2011 through 2015, the annual
TSR for T&L companies was, on average, 11.4%, also below
average for the industries studied.
Performance varied widely at the level of business segments.
• T&L businesses can be grouped into 16 segments on the basis of
the service provided. These segments can in turn be grouped on
the basis of asset intensity into four categories: logistics infrastruc-
ture, logistics execution, logistics services, and logistics advisory.
• The €2.7 trillion T&L market is dominated by logistics execution,
with combined revenues for its segments of €2.3 trillion. Infra-
structure segments’ combined revenues from serving execution
segments total €257 billion. The market for logistics services
(totaling €658 billion) is composed of freight-forwarding and
contract-logistics providers. The emerging category of logistics
advisory currently represents less than 1% of the overall T&L
market.
• The forecast nominal CAGR from 2014 through 2018 for most
segments is 4% to 7%. The logistics advisors segment is expected to
enjoy the highest CAGR: 9%. The outsourcing trend will continue
to drive growth in logistics services—nearly 7% for contract
logistics and nearly 5% for road- and rail-freight forwarding. Air
transport and sea transport are forecast to have low CAGRs of just
over 2%, while the forecast CAGR of the related freight-forwarding
segment is 1%.
• Combining the perspectives of growth and return on assets (ROA),
we found that the most attractive segments are logistics advisors,
CEP (courier, express, and parcels) delivery, hinterland terminals,
and rail transport (outside of Europe). All other segments do not
earn the cost of capital. Although segments in logistics infrastruc-
ture, such as rail network providers, port authorities, and ware-
housing, are expected to enjoy high growth rates, their returns are
below the cost of capital. The segments facing the most intense
pressure in terms of both growth and ROA include sea and air
transport and postal delivery.
A company-level analysis showed that strong returns are possible
throughout the industry.
• Nine of the industry’s 16 segments had a weighted average ROA
that exceeds the industry’s weighted average ROA of 4.6%.
4 | Transportation and Logistics in a changing world
• The average spread of ROA among infrastructure players was
smaller than for execution players, indicating that the higher asset
intensity of infrastructure businesses has an equalizing efect on
returns. The broad range of ROA for execution players is attribut-
able to the signifcant diferences in asset bases, tarif schemes,
and operational efciency. Within logistics services, the ROA
spread for contract logistics players was broader than for both
types of freight-forwarding companies.
To achieve profitable growth, companies in all T&L segments will
need to adapt their traditional business models to the changing
market environment.
• Companies across all segments should design lean organization
and governance structures to improve efciency and seek to
diferentiate themselves through IT, big data, and digitization
capabilities, human resources excellence, dynamic value pricing,
and balanced business portfolios.
• Road transport companies should design lean operations and
improve their overall network’s efciency and productivity, as well
as capacity management, to generate maximum revenues from
their feets. They should also improve capabilities for managing
tenders and contracts and focus their business on the most
attractive customer industries and markets.
• Freight-forwarding companies need to achieve scale on each route
(or “trade”) and rigorously implement automation of processes in
order to reduce costs. They can diferentiate themselves by provid-
ing high-quality end-to-end service and deploying an efective
sales force.
• Contract logistics providers should design standardized, industrial-
ized oferings that can be tailored to customers’ needs. They also
should select industry verticals and regions to focus on. Building
long-term relationships and becoming leaders in innovation will
be essential to maintaining a competitive advantage.
T&L companies also need to prepare for six megatrends: the rap-
id development of emerging markets, urbanization, sustainabili-
ty, infrastructure congestion and scarcity, e-commerce, and
digitization.
• To compete in a “two-speed world,” companies should emphasize
oferings to serve markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and
pursue relationships with the next wave of global challengers.
• Improved city logistics and integrated hub services will be critical
to serving the complex needs of congested megacities.
• To meet sustainability objectives, road transport companies, for
example, can replace their aging feets with fuel-efcient vehicles,
as well as develop oferings to help customers reduce their carbon
footprint.
The Boston Consulting Group | 5
• Logistics infrastructure companies can play a key role in helping
customers overcome infrastructure constraints, at a premium price
in some markets.
• “Last mile” strategies and innovative fulfllment services will help
companies capture growth opportunities in e-commerce.
• Digitization eforts should focus on big data and analytics and
automation of processes to reduce costs, as well as on digital
platform solutions in freight forwarding.
As they seek to overcome the current challenges to earning suffi-
cient returns on their asset base, T&L companies need to assess
where they stand today and their priorities for action.
• T&L companies should assess their operational efciency, sales
force efectiveness, and ability to create value for shareholders.
• For many companies, the long-term journey back to proftable
growth should begin with challenging their current business
model. For example, executives should assess opportunities arising
from megatrends and how these will afect the company’s value
proposition and operating model.
• All T&L companies can beneft from opportunities to combine
strong growth with high returns. The winners will be distinguished
by their ability to understand and implement the practices that
foster high performance in today’s market conditions as well as in
tomorrow’s transformed business environment.
6 | Transportation and Logistics in a changing world
THE ELUSIVE GOAL OF
PROFITABLE GROWTH
re these good times or bad times for share in new regions and in new business seg-
Athe transportation and logistics (T&L) ments failed to deliver profitability in terms of
industry? The industry has grown significant- return on sales (ROS) and return on assets
ly since the turn of the millennium, and most (ROA). In some instances, companies acceler-
segments emerged from the 2008 financial ated revenue growth through acquisitions, but
crisis with strong growth prospects. Despite these inorganic strategies also failed to realize
sound revenue growth, however, only a few the anticipated profit growth—often because
T&L companies have managed to enjoy the companies did not adequately integrate
higher profits. the acquired businesses into their operations
and networks.
However, some T&L companies succeeded in
The top ten companies in
achieving strong growth in both revenues
each segment were able to and profits. The top ten companies in each of
16 market segments were able to increase
increase revenues by 37%. revenues by 37% from 2007 through 2014,
and their EBIT margins grew by 18% during
the same period. To determine how, we con -
The Boston Consulting Group analyzed the ducted an industry-level analysis of critical
revenues and margins (calculated using earn- performance metrics and complemented it
ings before interest and taxes, or EBIT) of ap - with detailed analyses of business segments
proximately 500 T&L companies worldwide. and individual companies. We found that the
We found that revenues and average EBIT top-performing companies set themselves
margins grew at nearly the same rate from apart in two ways: they understand the suc -
2005 through 2007. Then, a small gap be- cess factors and related best practices that
tween the two increasingly widened. By the are critical to maximizing their profits in the
end of 2014, revenues had grown by 22%, market today, and they proactively position
while EBIT margins had grown by only 2%. themselves to capture opportunities arising
(See Exhibit 1.) from the megatrends reshaping the global econ-
omy—such as urbanization and digitization—
Challenging market conditions only partially so as to maintain their competitive advantage.
explain why profits did not keep pace with
revenue growth. For many T&L players, organ- To capitalize on opportunities in industry seg-
ic growth strategies aimed at gaining market ments that are attractive in terms of both
The Boston Consulting Group | 7
Exhibit 1 | Proft Growth Has Not Kept Pace with Revenue Growth
ABOUT 500 T&L COMPANIES IN 16 SEGMENTS
Change, CAGR,
2007–2014 2007–2014
Index (%) (%)
250
200 173
22 2.9
137
150
2 0.3
100
50
9
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TOP 10 T&L COMPANIES IN EACH SEGMENT
Change, CAGR,
2007–2014 2007–2014
(%) (%)
Index
224
250
37 4.6
200
144
150 18 2.4
100
50
9
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Revenues (indexed, 2005=100) EBIT (indexed, 2005=100) Return on sales (%)
Sources: S&P Capital IQ; BCG analysis.
Note: EBIT divided by total sales equals the return on sales.
growth and returns, company executives ranks of the top performers will require a
need to refine their current business models, fundamental paradigm shift—from pursuing
keeping in mind the factors that promote suc- growth for its own sake to finding avenues for
cess in the near term and the megatrends growth that generate high returns in an in-
that will affect these segments in the long creasingly complex and competitive business
term. For many T&L companies, joining the environment.
8 | Transportation and Logistics in a changing world
