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ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE
REPORT OF THE
HUNDRED AND NINTH ROUND TABLE
ON TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
held in Paris on 29-30th March 2001
on the following topic:
TRANSPORT AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT
EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT (ECMT)
The European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) is an inter-governmental organisation
established by a Protocol signed in Brussels on 17 October 1953. It is a forum in which Ministers
responsible for transport, and more specifically the inland transport sector, can co-operate on policy.
Within this forum, Ministers can openly discuss current problems and agree upon joint approaches aimed
at improving the utilisation and at ensuring the rational development of European transport systems
of international importance.
At present, the ECMT’s role primarily consists of:
– helping to create an integrated transport system throughout the enlarged Europe that is economically
and technically efficient, meets the highest possible safety and environmental standards and
takes full account of the social dimension;
– helping also to build a bridge between the European Union and the rest of the continent at a
political level.
The Council of the Conference comprises the Ministers of Transport of 42 full Member countries:
Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland,
Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey,
Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. There are six Associate member
countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and the United States) and two Observer
countries (Armenia and Morocco).
A Committee of Deputies, composed of senior civil servants representing Ministers, prepares
proposals for consideration by the Council of Ministers. The Committee is assisted by working groups,
each of which has a specific mandate.
The issues currently being studied – on which policy decisions by Ministers will be required –
include the development and implementation of a pan-European transport policy; the integration of
Central and Eastern European Countries into the European transport market; specific issues relating to
transport by rail, road and waterway; combined transport; transport and the environment; sustainable
urban travel; the social costs of transport; trends in international transport and infrastructure needs;
transport for people with mobility handicaps; road safety; traffic management; road traffic information and
new communications technologies.
Statistical analyses of trends in traffic and investment are published regularly by the ECMT and
provide a clear indication of the situation, on a trimestrial or annual basis, in the transport sector in
different European countries.
As part of its research activities, the ECMT holds regular Symposia, Seminars and Round Tables on
transport economics issues. Their conclusions serve as a basis for formulating proposals for policy
decisions to be submitted to Ministers.
The ECMT’s Documentation Service has extensive information available concerning the transport
sector. This information is accessible on the ECMT Internet site.
For administrative purposes the ECMT’s Secretariat is attached to the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Publié en français sous le titre :
Transport et développement économique
Further information about the ECMT is available on Internet at the following address:
www.oecd.org/cem
© ECMT 2002 – ECMT Publications are distributed by: OECD Publications Service,
2, rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTORY REPORTS
Report by H. BAUM and J. KORTE (Germany).......................................................................5
1. Introduction........................................................................................................................9
2. Influence of economic growth on transport development...............................................10
3. The influence of mobility on economic growth and employment...................................23
4. Consequences for transport policy...................................................................................47
Report by U. BLUM (Germany) and L. DUDLEY (Canada).................................................51
1. Relevance of the issue......................................................................................................55
2. Transportation, location and growth................................................................................56
3. Externalities and capacity use..........................................................................................62
4. Transportation, technological change and the network economy....................................67
5. Conclusions......................................................................................................................74
Report by R. PRUD’HOMME (France)....................................................................................81
1. Introduction......................................................................................................................85
2. The labour market size effect...........................................................................................87
3. Transportation and goods market.....................................................................................92
4. Conclusions......................................................................................................................98
Report by J. BERECHMAN (Israël).......................................................................................103
Transport investment and economic development: Is there a link?
1. Introduction....................................................................................................................107
2. A brief historical perspective.........................................................................................109
3. Transportation and the evolving economy.....................................................................111
4. Transportation investment and economic growth: theoretical underpinnings..............114
5. Two theoretical difficulties............................................................................................118
6. Empirical validation and evidence.................................................................................121
7. Lessons from actual case studies...................................................................................126
8. Transport investment and economic development: The decisive role of
policy design..................................................................................................................130
9. Conclusions....................................................................................................................131
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Report by R. VICKERMAN (United Kingdom)....................................................................139
1. Introduction....................................................................................................................143
2. Structure.........................................................................................................................144
3. Background....................................................................................................................145
4. Evidence.........................................................................................................................146
5. A conceptual model of transport and growth.................................................................151
6. Transport and growth: Aggregate approaches..............................................................152
7. Microeconomic efficiency.............................................................................................157
8. Spatial implications........................................................................................................160
9. Some conclusions on a conceptual model.....................................................................166
10. The evaluation of wider economic effects.....................................................................167
11. Conclusions....................................................................................................................168
Annex: International comparisons of traffic and GDP.......................................................170
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSIONS
(Round Table debate on reports).................................................................................................179
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS..............................................................................................................193
4
Herbert BAUM
Judith KURTE
Institut für Verkehrswissenschaft an der Universität zu Köln
Germany
5
SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................9
2. INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT.....................10
2.1. Goods transport......................................................................................................................10
2.2. Passenger transport................................................................................................................18
3. THE INFLUENCE OF MOBILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT........23
3.1. Growth effects as a benefit of transport.................................................................................23
3.2. Methods for measuring the impact of transport on growth....................................................24
3.3. Empirical results showing the growth effect of transport......................................................25
4. CONSEQUENCES FOR TRANSPORT POLICY.......................................................................47
NOTES..................................................................................................................................................49
Cologne, September 2000
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1. INTRODUCTION
Transport policy decisions affect the mobility of populations and businesses and thereby
influence prosperity, growth in GDP and employment across the economy. The effects are twofold:
(cid:1) Increasing economic development causes more traffic. Increasing amounts of goods,
greater transportation distances, enhanced division of labour (globalisation), new production
technologies (e.g. just-in-time production), higher levels of commuter traffic and an increase
in business travel are producing a growth in goods transport and production-related
passenger transport. The increase in the prosperity of private households, together with the
reduction in the working week and the working life, are producing an increase in holiday
and leisure transport.
(cid:1) The mobility of people and goods is a precondition for greater productivity and economic
growth. The latter result from enhanced division of labour, faster structural change, the
exploitation of new raw and other materials and greater competitiveness in international
trade. Mobility is therefore an important factor in the dynamics of economic growth.
These fundamental interrelations are of central importance in assessing transport options and
formulating practical policies. Knowledge of quantities involved offers guidance in the approach to
various fundamental transport policy issues:
(cid:1) On what scale is transport expected to develop?
(cid:1) What recommendations may be deduced from these interrelations for measures to resolve
the conflicting calls for a reduction in transport, the transfer of transport, more efficient
transport and the decoupling of transport development from economic growth?
(cid:1) What conclusions are to be drawn with respect to the formulation of policy on framework
conditions, infrastructure and funding?
In the different lines of statistical or empirical research into the interaction between economic
growth and transport development, economic theory is an important source of information and an aid
to interpretation. The implications of the present state of knowledge are examined below.
In this connection it should be pointed out that the effects of economic growth on the
development of transport can be demonstrated fairly clearly. Studies of the macroeconomic effects of
mobility on productivity and growth, however, are more difficult to conduct and therefore much less
common. The question of effects on employment is relatively new to the debate on transport
strategies and the macroeconomic effects of mobility have therefore become an essential factor in the
analysis. It is an open question, for example, whether a policy of reducing traffic stimulates a rise or a
fall in employment. Whether the transfer of traffic from road to rail is related to the decline in
employment is also disputed.
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