Table Of ContentThis is a volume in
S T U D I E S I N P O P U L A T I O N
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Transitions and
Social Change
The Early Lives
of American Men
Dennis P. Hogan
Population Research Center
and Department of Sociology
University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois
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Hogan, Dennis P.
Transitions and social change.
(Studies in population)
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Men—United States—History—20th century.
2. Life cycle, Human. I. Title. II. Series.
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To Mary
Preface
This book is about the timing and synchronization of transition
events that mark the passage of American males from adolescence to
adul thood. The transition events examined include the completion of
formal schooling, the establishment of relative financial independence
through entry into the first full-time civilian job , and the formation of
a new family of procreat ion through first marriage. The timing and syn-
chronizat ion of these transition events are examined for single-year birth
cohorts of men born from 1907 to 1952. Intercohort variations in the
transition to adulthood are explained with reference to a variety of de-
mographic , social, and economic conditions that define the unique history
of each birth cohor t . In addition to varying across cohor ts , the transition
to adul thood varies among individuals according to social class, size of
communi ty during adolescence , and paternal ethnic ancest ry . The timing
and ordering pat terns of the transition events are shown to have impli-
cations for occupational and earnings at tainments both early and in mid-
career and to influence the stability of the first marriage.
This study is based on data collected in the 1973 Occupational
Changes in a Generat ion II Survey, which was carried out in conjunction
with the March demographic supplement to the Current Population Sur-
vey. The survey respondents included more than 33,500 men, aged 20
to 65, in the civilian noninstitutional population. The large number of
respondents permits the description of the transition experiences of de-
tailed subgroups in the populat ion, as well as of 46 single-year birth
cohor t s . The survey is unique in its inclusion of a broad array of family
xi
X Ü PREFACE
background data and career socioeconomic attainment information, along
with the data about the timing of transition events that are essential to
this study.
This is a theoretical study that poses a number of research quest ions
about the transition to adulthood and at tempts to answer these questions
through empirical demographic research. It is hoped that my research
methods will provide technically correct answers to the research ques-
tions yet be as unders tandable as possible to the average social science
reader . A variety of more complex statistical techniques for the analysis
of longitudinal data were not used (despite their appropriateness for the
research issues addressed here) because those methods are difficult for
the average reader to comprehend. The methods of analysis employed
represent the best compromise between the twin goals of presenting a
comprehens ive , correct analysis and presenting an intelligible analysis.
This study, then, is aimed at the wide audience of demographers , so-
ciologists, historians, and psychologists who are interested in life-course
research. It is intended to appeal to persons at all levels of methodological
sophist icat ion—both professionals and graduate students .
The book is organized into four par ts . Part I describes the theoretical
background and the major objectives of the study (Chapter 1), and dis-
cusses the data , the measurement of critical variables, and the research
methods (Chapter 2). Part II documents intercohort changes in the tran-
sition behavior of twentieth-century American males (Chapter 3), and
identifies the social structural conditions and historical events instru-
mental in these changes (Chapter 4). Subgroup differentials in the timing
and sequencing of early life transitions and intercohort changes in the
effects of subgroup membership on transition behavior are analyzed in
Part III . The subgroups of interest include social classes (Chapter 5),
communit ies of various sizes (Chapter 6), and paternal ethnic ancestry
(Chapter 7). In Chapter 8, the simultaneous effects of the three types
of subgroup membership are described, and the subgroup differentials
in transition behavior are related to the intercohort changes documented
in Chapter 3. In Part IV, the focus of the study shifts to the analysis of
the later life-course consequences of the timing and sequencing of early
life transi t ions. The career consequences of transition behavior are traced
for occupational at tainment (Chapter 9) and earnings attainment (Chapter
10). The effects of early-life transition behavior on the stability of the
first marriage are examined in Chapter 11. The major conclusions of the
study and their implications for the transition behavior of cohorts born
after 1952 are discussed in Chapter 12.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by a Spencer Research Grant from the
Division of the Social Sciences of the University of Chicago and by the
Universi ty of Chicago Population Research Center . After the initial draft
of the book was completed, I attended the 1980 Summer Institute on
Life-Span Human Development sponsored by the Center for Advanced
Study in the Behavioral Sciences and the Social Science Research Coun-
cil Commit tee on Life Course Perspect ives on Middle Age. The Summer
Insti tute provided a splendid intellectual and physical environment in
which to discuss my research, reflect on the analysis I had writ ten, and
begin to revise the book.
I gratefully acknowledge, with special thanks , the intellectual in-
spiration and personal encouragement provided by Glen H. Elder, Jr.
My decisions about the research quest ions to be posed by this work and
the research methodology to be adopted were greatly influenced by his
recent work on the life-course perspect ive and his identification of un-
answered research quest ions . I also benefited from Elder ' s forthright and
construct ive criticisms of the research plan and of the initial draft of the
manuscr ipt .
Michèle Pazul and Paul Frenzen , graduate students at the University
of Chicago, assisted in the project. Pazul prepared and maintained the
OCG-II data file, and produced most of the survival-table and log-linear
models required in the study. Frenzen assembled the cohort data file
utilized in Chapter 4 and did both the computer tabulations for that
chapter and est imated the occupational mobility models of Chapter 9.
xiii
X I V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Besides handling data processing, both Pazul and Frenzen were always
ready to discuss the analysis with me and to comment on chapter drafts.
I greatly appreciate the secretarial assistance provided by Wilhel-
mina Crawford, whose persistence and craft transformed my handwrit ten
construct ions into the finished tables reproduced in this volume. Craw-
ford, along with Debra Milton and Faye Gilbert, typed the various drafts
of this book. That these three people tolerated my frequently illegible
script is surprising; that they did so without complaint is amazing. Adele
Pardee of the Population Research Center and Hana Okamoto of the
Department of Sociology provided the assistance that freed me from
administrative detail and allowed me to pursue the intellectual concerns
of this project.
Over the course of this project, many persons have provided en-
couragement and advice. These include Evelyn Kitagawa, Philip Hauser ,
and Teresa Sullivan (my colleagues at the Population Research Center) ,
and William Julius Wilson, James Coleman, Morris Janowitz , Amy Ong
Tsui , Michael White , François Nielsen, Thomas DiPrete, and Mariah
Evans of the Depar tment of Sociology. Rachel Rosenfeld, Kenneth Spen-
ner, Clifford Clogg, Beverly Duncan, and Christopher Winship were
willing sources of helpful advice. I am especially grateful to Bernice
Neugar ten , who discussed the research issues of this study with me. I
have incorporated many of Neugar ten ' s ideas into this analysis. Finally,
I wish to acknowledge the helpful comments of J. J. Card and William
McKinley Runyan of the 1980 Summer Institute on Life-Span Human
Development , and those of Phyllis Moen of Cornell University. I ac-
knowledge, with great thanks , the contributions of these people.
I
Introduction to
the Study
OBJECTIVES
This book describes a study of the early life transitions of twentieth-
century American men. The completion of schooling marks the conclu-
sion of a youth ' s formal training for adulthood. Entry into the first, full-
time civilian j o b indicates the age at which a young man becomes a
product ive , economically self-sufficient member of the society. With his
first marriage, a man begins a family of procreation and becomes socially
accepted as a potentially reproductive member of the society. Considered
jointly, these three transit ions transform a young man who is dependent
on his family and the larger society into a productive and reproduct ive
adult.
These transit ions are age-graded, but their timing and sequencing
has varied among twentieth-century birth cohorts . These intercohort
differences result partly from the historical changes in social structural
condit ions exper ienced by the cohor ts at the time of their transition from
youth to adulthood (for example , industrialization, urbanization and sub-
urbanizat ion, the expansion of the public school system). Intercohort
differences in transition behavior are produced also by historical events—
such as the Great Depress ion, the two World Wars , and the Korean and
Vietnam Wars—which affected cohorts differently, depending on their
ages at the time the events occur . The first objective of this study is to
describe these intercohort changes in transition behavior and to identify
the social structural condit ions and historical events that produced these
changes .
2 I INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY
Within cohor t s , the timing and sequencing of early life transitions
may vary among men occupying differing positions in the social structure.
Social class and ethnic ancestry differences in transition behavior are
expected insofar as the educational and occupational aspirations and
attainments of the social classes and ethnic groups vary. The timing and
sequencing of early life transitions may also vary among men from com-
munities with differing opportunity structures. The ways in which family
and communi ty characterist ics affect transition behavior may differ
among the cohor ts as men respond to the unique combination of social
structural condit ions and historical events experienced by their cohort .
The second objective of this study is to describe social class, ethnic
ancestry , and community-size differences in transition behavior, and to
identify any intercohort variations therein.
The life-course perspective on individual behavior suggests that the
timing and sequencing of early life transitions will influence the later life
course . A career beginning with an early or late timing, or with an
unusual sequencing in relation to other transit ions, may hinder career
achievements . An early or late marriage, or a marriage occurring prior
to the other transi t ions, may be associated with increased tension and
discord early in the marriage and, ultimately, with a higher probability
that the marriage will end in divorce. The third objective of this study
is to measure the effects of the timing and sequencing of early life
transit ions on men ' s occupational and earnings attainments and marital
stability over the later life course .
In a review of the literature on adolescence, Glen Elder (1980:33)
remarked:
The impact of major historical t ransformat ions that occur red be tween late-nineteenth-
cen tury Amer ica and the 1970s—especially the Great Depress ion and the two World
W a r s — a s well as class and ethnic differences in life-course change have yet to be
explored in detail .
This study is intended to provide such a comprehensive description and
explanation of the ways in which social structural condit ions, historical
events , and position within the social structure have affected the early
life-course transit ions of twentieth-century American men. This study
also a t tempts to accomplish an important goal of any truly comprehensive
study of the early life transitions of twentieth-century American males:
to direct attention to consequences of these transitions in the later life
course .
In The Sociological Imagination (1959:175), C. Wright Mills remarked:
The biographies of men and w o m e n , the kinds of individuals they have b e c o m e ,
cannot be under s tood without reference to the historical st ruc tures in which the
