Transarctic routes

81 Pages·2017·5.06 MB·English

by  Adil Rashid

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World Maritime University Dissertations Dissertations
2009
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Adil Rashid
World Maritime University
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Rashid, Adil, "Transarctic routes : impact and opportunities for ports" (2009). World Maritime University
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World Maritime University
Malmo, Sweden

TRANSARCTIC ROUTES
Impact and Opportunities for Ports

By

ADIL RASHID
Pakistan

A dissertation submitted to the World Maritime University in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
MARITIME AFFAIRS

(PORT MANAGEMENT)

2009

Copyright Adil Rashid, 2009
DECLARATION
I certify that all the material in this dissertation that is not my own work has been
identified, and that no material is included for, which a degree has previously been
conferred on me. The contents of this dissertation reflect my own personal views,
and are not necessarily those of the University.

(Adil Rashid)

24 August 2009

Supervised by:
Prof. Daniel S. H. Moon,
BE (KMU). ME (KMU), PhD (Cardiff University, UK)
World Maritime University (WMU)

Assessor:
Prof Shuo Ma,
Vice-President (Academic) and Academic Dean
BSc (Shanghai Maritime University), MSc (Paris I), PhD
(Paris II), Chevalier du Mérite Maritime (France)
World Maritime University (WMU)

Co Assessor:
Dr. Michael C. Ircha
FCSCE, FEIC, P.Eng., MCIP, RPP
Honorary Research Professor of Civil Engineering

ii
Acknowledgments
(With the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, Most Merciful)

I would like to express my gratitude to all mighty Allah who was my support at
all times in every walk of my life. I am also very thankful to my wife Rabia and my
daughters Haya and Leeza who bear all the hardships with happy faces while living
without me for the duration of my stay here in Malmo. I am also highly obliged to
Mr Yohei Sasakawa (笹川 陽平) for his generous support by granting me the
fellowship and supporting me during the stay here in Malmo.

I am also thankful to the professors and staff of World Maritime University for
their interest and care they have taken in imparting me the knowledge in such a
fabulous environment. Many special thanks to Prof Daniel Moon, who accepted the
challenge to be my Supervisor for this dissertation. I would like to thank from the
core of my heart Prof Shuo Ma and Prof Pierre Cariou who entrusted me with this
opportunity to work on this critical topic.
A very special thank to Mr. Clive Cole for his valuable comments and
suggestions that enable me to shape up my dissertation in a presentable format.
I would also like to express my heartiest appreciation to my friend Ms
Meenaksi Bhirugnath for her benevolent moral support throughout my stay in the
university whenever it has been required. And lastly I would like to acknowledge my
Class fellows who have had to bear the never ending questions I have asked during
sessions in the class and then supported me in achieving success in completing my
tenure here with honor.

Adil Rashid

24 August 2009

iii
Abstract

Title of Dissertation: Transarctic Routes – Impact and Opportunities

Degree: MSc

The ongoing climate change will have significant effects all over the world.
Because of these changes some areas will be losing the benefits which they are
enjoying today and some will gain their economies. Maritime industry being global
in nature will share the profits and the losses a region will be facing in future. The
international community is endeavoring to delay these changes but we have to be
realistic. Climate change is already underway and cannot be stopped. To secure our
future, we must prepare ourselves and do our best to adapt to these changing
conditions.
Many studies have already been conducted to analyze the effects of these
changes on different walks of life, but very little is studied to evaluate the effects of
these variation on ports of the world. This dissertation examines the opportunities
and impacts on ports studying the Arctic Region as that area will have maximum
effects due to the global warming.
In order to achieve the goal, firstly the economic imbalances due to the climatic
affects in different regions are studied as they are the major sources for increase in
global trade. History shows that whenever the trade patterns changes, the ports rises
or falls with the changes. Today is a new turning point in shipping. With the melting
of the Arctic ice cover new shipping routes are being opened. These will
substantially shorten the shipping route for Europe and North-America to important
trade destinations in the Pacific. This could mean in some instances a shortening of
the shipping distance of up to 40 per cent.
The study assesses the viability of Transarctic shipping in terms of distance, time and
economics since the viability of Transarctic shipping is primarily an economic
question as the power of free markets with increased demand for global transport and
iv
logistics corporations are the decision makers when it comes to identifying new
routing opportunities. The second attraction to maritime trade in the region is the
opening of a new market of oil, gas and other minerals. Scientists have discovered
world largest oil and gas reserves under the white ice of the Arctic Region. With the
melting of ice, the access to these resources is also getting easier. This will increase
the demand for ship transport for the oil and gas operations
To assess the benefits of distance in adopting the Transarctic route, an
empirical study using the Center of Gravity modeling is used by the author where the
Canadian market is modeled for the containerized traffic. The study reveals that
according to the data taken by the different sources in 2006, the Canadian ports in
north or north east are in better position to be a hub port for the container market in
Canada. But at present due to non availability of shorter route between North East
Asia and northern Canada, shippers are calling port of Vancouver at the west coast of
Canada due availability of a shorter route across the Pacific ocean.
The study concludes that with the changes in climatic conditions where many
ports will be losing business, Arctic ports will have the opportunities to gain
economies. But this all is not possible without improving the infrastructure
availability which can minimize the total cost in the whole logistics and supply chain.

Keywords:
Transarctic Route, Port Location, Gravity Modeling, NSR, NWP

v
Contents
Table of Figures .................................................................................... viii 
List of Tables ........................................................................................... ix 
List of Abbreviations ............................................................................... x 
Chapter 1.  Introduction ......................................................................... 1 
1.1  Objectives and Scope of the Study ......................................... 1 
1.2  Research Methodology ............................................................ 2 
Chapter 2.  Background ......................................................................... 4 
2.1  Rise and Fall of Ports .............................................................. 4 
Chapter 3.  The Arctic Region ............................................................... 8 
3.1  Introduction ............................................................................. 9 
3.2  Physiology of Arctic Region .................................................... 9 
3.3  Transarctic Routes ................................................................ 10 
3.3.1  The Northwest Passage ....................................................... 11 
3.3.2  North East Passage ............................................................. 12 
3.4  Major Stakeholders ............................................................... 12 
3.5  Major Ports and Harbors ..................................................... 14 
3.6  Climate Change ..................................................................... 15 
3.7  Effects of Climate in the Arctic Region ............................... 17 
Chapter 4.  Literature Review ............................................................. 19 
4.1  Impact and Opportunities arising from Global Warming 19 
4.1.1  Effects of Temperature Rise ................................................ 24 
4.1.2  Effects of Sea-Level Rise ..................................................... 25 
4.2  Viability of Transarctic Transportation .............................. 29 
4.2.1  Navigational Viability ......................................................... 29 
4.2.2  Other Features of the Arctic Marine Physical Environment:33 
4.3  Infrastructure Availability ................................................... 35 
4.3.1  Global Infrastructure .......................................................... 35 
4.3.2  Infrastructure in the Arctic Region ..................................... 37 
vi
4.4  Economic viability ................................................................. 38 
4.4.1  Advantages of Arctic Route in Travelling Distances .......... 39 
4.4.2  New Market Opportunities ................................................. 44 
4.4.3  Governance ......................................................................... 48 
4.4.4  Resources & Trade ............................................................. 48 
4.5  Effects of Location in Development of a Port ..................... 50 
Chapter 5.  Empirical Analysis ............................................................ 54 
5.1  Model Formulation ................................................................ 54 
5.2  Assumptions ........................................................................... 55 
5.3  Canadian Container Market ................................................ 56 
5.4  Data and Variables ................................................................ 57 
5.5  Analysis of the Gravity Model: ............................................ 60 
Chapter 6.  Conclusion ......................................................................... 63 
Bibliography ........................................................................................... II 

vii
Table of Figures

Figure 1   Ursa Major in Celestial Sphere ............................................ 8 
Figure 2  Arctic Circle ...................................................................... 10 
Figure 3   Countries in Arctic Region ................................................ 13 
Figure 4  Major Arctic Ports ............................................................. 15 
Figure 5   History of Changes in Global Climate .............................. 17 
Figure 6  Effect of Climate change in Different Regions ................. 20 
Figure 7  Uganda Impact of Temperature Rise on Robusta coffee ... 25 
Figure 8  Effect of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh ............................ 26 
Figure 9   Impact of Sea Level Rise-Nile Delta ................................. 27 
Figure 10  Effect of Sea Level Rise in Nile Delta............................... 28 
Figure 11  Risks and Challenges in Arctic Navigation ....................... 33 
Figure 12  Barriers to Global Shipping ............................................... 36 
Figure 13  Barriers to Railways .......................................................... 36 
Figure 14  Resources in the Arctic Region ......................................... 46 
Figure 15  Arctic Sega......................................................................... 49 
Figure 16  Location Of Major Canadian Ports .................................... 56 
Figure 17  Location of Markets in North American Region ............... 57 
Figure 18  Route between Shanghai and Vancouver Ports ................. 61 
Figure 19  Route between Ports of Shanghai and Helifax via
Panama Canal ..................................................................... 61 
Figure 20  Areas that will Gain or Lose due to Changes in
Shipping Routes .................................................................. 66 

viii
List of Tables

Table 1  Maritime Zones as per UNCLOS ............................................. 14 
Table 2  Updated Scenario of Bangladesh .............................................. 26 
Table 3  Water Routes of Northwest Passage ......................................... 30 
Table 4  Major Straits of NSR ................................................................ 32 
Table 5  Wave Height Data Arctic Region ............................................. 35 
Table 6  Distance Comparison ................................................................ 40 
Table 7  Comparison of Travelling Time ............................................... 40 
Table 8   Comparison of Distance between Oslo and Tokyo .................. 41 
Table 9   Speeds and times for different legs of a 5000 TEU vessel ....... 42 
Table 10  Cargo transport calculations for 5000 TEU vessel on
average winter ............................................................................ 44 
Table 11   Resources in Arctic Region ...................................................... 45 
Table 12  Comparison of Arctic Sega Scenarios ...................................... 49 
Table 13  General Characteristics of a Port .............................................. 51 
Table 14  Criteria for Port Selection ......................................................... 52 
Table 15  Containers Movements in TEU’s - Year 2006 ......................... 58 
Table 16  Coordinated Positions of Markets ............................................ 59 
Table 17  Resultant Data ........................................................................... 59 

ix