Table Of ContentTRACKING AND PREDICTING THE
ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION
OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RELEASES
Implications for Homeland Security
Committee on the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Cover: (Clockwise from top) The first image is a 3-D representation of tracer plume
concentrations from a simulation of a tracer release during URBAN 2000 in Salt Lake City in
October 2000. The release location was approximately at the short, black line segment
located in the bright red area of the plume. Many complex phenomena related to the
interaction of the prevailing southeast wind, the buildings, and the tracer are shown. In
particular, there is significant movement of tracer material to the south and to the west in
comparison to what would be predicted by a model without explicit representation of
buildings. This simulation was done with the HIGRAD CFD model at Los Alamos National
Laboratory. The second image is a representation of tracer concentration contours from point
measurements made during URBAN 2000 in Salt Lake City. Concentration contour analysis
was done by Jerry Allwine at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The third image is a
simulation of a material release in Portland using the UDM model. The release point is at the
red/orange star and the wind is due west. This illustrates the potentially dramatic effect of
buildings and street canyons on the behavior of a plume in an urban area. This simulation
was done by Los Alamos National Laboratory, and use of the UDM model is courtesy of the
Defence Science and Technology Laboratory of the UK Ministry of Defence. The fourth
image is a 2-D representation of the same tracer plume concentration described for Image 1.
Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE ON THE ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION OF
HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RELEASES
ROBERT J. SERAFIN (chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
Colorado
ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder
LEWIS M. DUNCAN, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
MARGARET A. LEMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
DAVID E. NEFF, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
WILLIAM E. ODOM, Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C.
GENE J. PFEFFER, Ridgefield Consulting, Colorado Springs, Colorado
KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. WARNER, University of Colorado, Boulder
JOHN C. WYNGAARD, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
NRC Staff
LAURIE GELLER, Study Director
VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer (through August 2002)
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
JULIE DEMUTH, Research Associate
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RAYMOND J. BAN, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman
RAFAEL L. BRAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder
CASSANDRA G. FESEN, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
GEORGE L. FREDERICK, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado
JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
MARGARET A. LEMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM J. RANDEL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD D. ROSEN, Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington,
Massachusetts
THOMAS F. TASCIONE, Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
JOHN C. WYNGAARD, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Ex Officio Members
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Senior Scholar
LAURIE S. GELLER, Senior Program Officer
AMANDA STAUDT, Program Officer
JULIE DEMUTH, Research Associate
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Project Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
ROBIN A. MORRIS, Financial Officer
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Preface
n the wake of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the National Academies
launched a major new initiative to provide guidance to the federal government on
I scientific and technical matters related to counterterrorism and homeland security.1
All of the boards within the National Academies were asked to consider how their
particular research communities could contribute to this effort. The Board on Atmo-
spheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) discussed this matter at its autumn 2001 meeting
and proposed the idea for the workshop that is described in this report.
There is growing concern that future terrorist activities may involve the release of
chemical or biological weapons or the detonation of “dirty bombs” that release radio-
active material. Atmospheric observations and models can be used to track a hazardous
release and to forecast how a plume of hazardous material may spread. Emergency
responders can use this information to identify affected locations and make life-saving
decisions about evacuating or sheltering endangered populations. The BASC members
agreed that there was a great need to critically examine the observational and modeling
tools used for tracking the atmospheric dispersion of chemical, biological, or nuclear
(C/B/N) agents and to assess the value of dispersion forecasts for providing useful
information to emergency responders and the general public.
To address these issues, a steering committee was convened that included several
members of the BASC and a number of additional people chosen to augment the group’s
expertise. The steering committee held an initial planning meeting on May 8-9, 2002, in
Washington, D.C., and the workshop was held on July 22-24, 2002, in Woods Hole,
Massachusetts. The charge to the committee was to organize a workshop that addressed
the following tasks:
1 A centerpiece of this effort is the report Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and
Technology in Countering Terrorism (NRC, 2002c). That report was produced by a parent
committee (chaired by Lewis Branscomb and Richard Klausner) that synthesized the analysis of
eight subpanels.
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viii PREFACE
• Review the current suite of atmospheric models that are used in characterizing
atmospheric dispersion and examine how these models are applied operationally for
emergency response efforts.
• Identify deficiencies in the models that limit their effectiveness and breadth of
application; assess the research and development needed to enhance the effectiveness and
operational use of these models in emergency situations.
• Determine the observational data needed to initialize, test, and use these
models effectively, and identify ways that other environmental measurements can com-
plement these models to provide additional and more accurate information.
This activity focused on tracking terrorist releases of C/B/N agents (primarily
focusing on local- or regional-scale dispersion), but it should be noted that many of the
issues raised in this context are applicable to tracking other hazardous materials dispersed
through the atmosphere, such as air pollution, smoke from forest fires, and industrial
chemical spills. Note also that the workshop participants did recognize C/B/N sensors as
critically important components of a dispersion tracking and forecasting system. An
examination of sensor technologies can be found in another recent National Research
Council report (NRC, 2002a).
There are dozens of dispersion models in use as operational or research tools. We
did not attempt to carry out a comprehensive model analysis or intercomparison, but
instead, we examined a small subset of modeling systems (primarily those used by
national agencies) that represent a range of capabilities and applications. The models
chosen for discussion here do not represent the committee’s judgment about the “best”
systems. Recently, the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology and the
Department of Defense each carried out a comprehensive survey of available dispersion
models and their capabilities (although both assessments were largely qualitative in
nature). This National Academies’ activity is aimed at complementing the governmental
activities by providing an independent forum for assessing our nation’s current
capabilities and needs. This activity was initiated internally and supported through
National Academies’ endowment and BASC core funds (received from the National
Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and National
Aeronautics and Space Administration).
This report provides a summary of the discussions that took place at the workshop.
It is organized along the same lines as the workshop itself, divided into three main topics:
(1) information requirements of the emergency response community, (2) observational
capabilities and needs, and (3) modeling capabilities and needs. The workshop focused
primarily on informal discussion among the participants, but it also included a few
presentations to provide background information and context for the participants. The
appendixes of this report include a summary of several of these presentations.
Robert J. Serafin, Chair
Acknowledgments
his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by
T the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this
independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the
institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the
report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the
study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect
the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for
their review of this report:
Donald E. Aylor, Connecticut Agricultural Experimentation Center
David P. Bacon, Science Applications International Corporation
Donald L. Ermak, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Jack Fellows, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
George L. Frederick, Vaisala Inc.
Robert G. Hendrickson, Oregon Health and Science University
Andrew Majda, New York University
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington
Stephen J. McGrail, Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
Frances Edwards-Winslow, San Jose Office of Emergency Services
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommen-
dations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this
report was overseen by John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, and
Charles E. Kolb, Aerodyne Research, Inc. Appointed by the National Research Council,
they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report
was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments
were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
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