Toward a New Climate Agreement: Conflict, Resolution and Governance

329 Pages·2014·2.47 MB·English

by  Todd L. Cherry

Toward a New Climate Agreement
Climate change is one of the most pressing problems facing the global community.
Although most states agree that climate change is occurring and is at least partly
the result of humans’ reliance on fossil fuels, managing a changing global climate
is a formidable challenge. Underlying this challenge is the fact that states are
sovereign, governed by their own laws and regulations. Sovereignty requires that
states address global problems such as climate change on a voluntary basis, by
negotiating international agreements. Despite a consensus on the need for global
action, many questions remain concerning how a meaningful international climate
agreement can be realized.
This book brings together leading experts to speak to such questions and to
offer promising ideas for the path toward a new climate agreement. Organized in
three main parts, it examines the potential for meaningful climate cooperation.
Part I explores sources of conflict that lead to barriers to an effective climate
agreement. Part II investigates how different processes influence states’ prospects
of resolving their differences and of reaching a climate agreement that is more
effective than the current Kyoto Protocol. Finally, part III focuses on governance
issues, including lessons learned from existing institutional structures.
The book is unique in that it brings together the voices of experts from many
disciplines, such as economics, political science, international law, and natural
science. The authors are academics, practitioners, consultants, and advisors. Contri­
butions draw on a variety of methods, and include both theoretical and empirical
studies. The book should be of interest to scholars and graduate students in the fields
of economics, political science, environmental law, natural resources, earth sciences,
sustainability, and many others. It is directly relevant for policy makers, stakeholders
and climate change negotiators, offering insights into the roles of uncertainty,
fairness, policy linkage, burden sharing, and alternative institutional designs.
Todd L. Cherry is a Professor of Economics at Appalachian State University,
USA, and at CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research – Oslo, Norway. He currently holds the Rasmuson Chair of Economics
at the University of Alaska Anchorage, USA.
Jon Hovi is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, and at
CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo,
Norway.
David M. McEvoy is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at
Appalachian State University, USA.
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Edited By Robin Globus Veldman, Hans A Baer and Merrill Singer
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Toward a New Climate
Agreement
Conflict, resolution and governance
Edited by
Todd L. Cherry, Jon Hovi and
David M. McEvoy
First published 2014
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group,
an informa business.
© 2014 selection and editorial material, Todd L. Cherry, Jon Hovi and
David M. McEvoy; individual chapters, the contributors.
The right of Todd L. Cherry, Jon Hovi and David M. McEvoy to be
identified as authors of the editorial material, and of the individual authors
as authors of their contributions, has been asserted by them in accordance
with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
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Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Toward a new climate agreement : conflict, resolution and governance /
[edited by] Todd L. Cherry, Jon Hovi, David M. McEvoy.
pages cm. ­­ (Routledge advances in climate change research)
Summary: “This book examines the challenges of sustaining meaningful cooperation among
countries striving to manage global climate change through international environmental agreements.
Through the perspectives of leading international scholars from multiple disciplines, readers of the
book will gain an understanding of how agreements are negotiated, the strength and weaknesses of
previous climate agreements and how a more effective future climate agreement can be designed”­­
Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Climatic changes­­Government policy­­International cooperation.
2. Environmental policy­­International cooperation. I. Cherry, Todd L., editor of compilation.
II. Hovi, Jon, 1956­ editor of compilation. III. McEvoy, David M. (David Michael), editor of
compilation.
QC903.T69 2014
363.738’74561­­dc23
2013031853
ISBN: 978­0­415­64379­5 (hbk)
ISBN: 978­0­203­08000­9 (ebk)
Typeset in Times
by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby
Contents
List of figures ix
List of tables x
List of contributors xi
Foreword by Joseph E. Aldy xiii
Introduction xix
TODD L. CHERRY, JON HOvI AND DAvID M. McEvOY
PART I
Conflict: barriers to a new agreement 1
1 Observations from the climate negotiations in Durban,
South Africa 3
STEFFEN KALLBEKKEN
2 Does fairness matter in international environmental governance?
Creating an effective and equitable climate regime 16
ORAN R. YOUNG
3 Formation of climate agreements: the role of uncertainty
and learning 29
MICHAEL FINUS AND PEDRO PINTASSILGO
4 Burden sharing in global climate governance 44
THOMAS BERNAUER, ROBERT GAMPFER AND FLORIAN LANDIS
5 Negotiating to avoid “gradual” versus “dangerous” climate change:
an experimental test of two prisoners’ dilemmas 61
SCOTT BARRETT AND ASTRID DANNENBERG
vi Contents
6 US climate policy and the shale gas revolution 76
GURI BANG AND TORA SKODvIN
PART II
Resolution: paths toward a new agreement 91
7 International environmental agreements with endogenous
minimum participation and the role of inequality 93
DAvID M. McEvOY, TODD L. CHERRY AND JOHN K. STRANLUND
8 Climate policy coordination through institutional design:
an experimental examination 106
MATTHEw E. OLIvER, JAMISON PIKE, SHANSHAN HUANG AND
JASON F. SHOGREN
9 Improving the design of international environmental
agreements 128
MATTHEw McGINTY
10 Managing dangerous anthropogenic interference:
decision rules for climate governance 143
RICHARD B. HOwARTH AND MICHAEL D. GERST
11 Exclusive approaches to climate governance: more effective
than the UNFCCC? 155
STEINAR ANDRESEN
12 Bottom-up or top-down? 167
JON HOvI, DETLEF F. SPRINz AND ARILD UNDERDAL
PART III
Governance: structures for a new agreement 181
13 Rethinking the legal form and principles of a new
climate agreement 183
GEIR ULFSTEIN AND CHRISTINA vOIGT
14 Technology agreements with heterogeneous countries 199
MICHAEL HOEL AND AART DE zEEUw
Contents vii
15 International guidance for border carbon adjustments to
address carbon leakage 220
AARON COSBEY AND CAROLYN FISCHER
16 The effect of enforcement in the presence of strong reciprocity:
an application of agent-based modeling 233
HåKON SæLEN
17 EU emissions trading: achievements, challenges, solutions 254
JON BIRGER SKJæRSETH
18 The EU’s quest for linked carbon markets: turbulence
and headwind 266
JøRGEN wETTESTAD AND TORBJøRG JEvNAKER
Index 280
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Figures
1.1 GNI per capita and CO emissions per capita for Annex I countries
2
(black diamonds) and non­Annex I countries (grey squares) in 2008 7
4.1 Implications of three normative principles 49
5.1 Correlation between pledges and contributions 68
8.1 Schematic representation of control and treatment games 113
14.1 The cost function 205
14.2 Coalition of only h­countries: full abatement 206
14.3 Coalition of only h­countries: partial abatement 206
14.4 Coalition of all h­countries and some l­countries: full abatement 206
14.5 Coalition of all h­countries and some l­countries: partial abatement 207
14.6 Switch from full abatement to partial abatement: only h­countries 210
14.7 Switch from full abatement to partial abatement 211
14.8 Full abatement if the number of h­countries is small 213
14.9 Full abatement if the number of h­countries is intermediate 214
14.10 Never full abatement 214
14.11 Switch from full abatement to partial abatement:
both h­ and l­countries 217
16.1 Model structure 240
16.2 Contributions during 10 periods under different enforcement
regimes 242
16.3 Mean contributions at period 10 under the double enforcement
regime 243
16.4 Sensitivity of results to different input parameters 244–6
16.5 Sensitivity of results to group size 247
16.6 Contributions during 100 periods under the potent enforcement
regimes 248
16.7 Sensitivity of results to self­serving bias among strong
reciprocators 248