Three Essays on Crime and Delinquency: Immigration, Alcohol, and Probation

199 Pages·2015·2.7 MB·English

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Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations
2014
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SeungHoon Han
University of Pennsylvania, [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations
Part of the Criminology Commons, and the Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons
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Han, SeungHoon, "Three Essays on Crime and Delinquency: Immigration, Alcohol, and Probation" (2014).
Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 1307.
https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1307
This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1307
For more information, please contact [email protected].
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This dissertation is a collection of three distinct chapters. The first chapter explores the associations
between various assimilation measures and outcomes of delinquent risk factor development for
immigrant youth from Los Angeles County, CA, using both logit regression and doubly robust estimation
methods. Youth with a low level of assimilation were more likely to have a high level of attachment to
family and school than those with a high level of assimilation. However, the associations were less
evident for the other delinquent risk factors. Among the assimilation measures used, the generation
status measure was not predictive of the outcomes. The two language-related assimilation measures
were less strongly associated with the outcomes than the immigrant status measure.
The second chapter investigates crime impacts of the increased alcohol availability made through
repealing a Sunday off-premise liquor sales ban. Since 2003, Pennsylvania permitted a part of its state-
run liquor stores to open on Sunday by repealing the ban, which enables a quasi-experimental triple
difference design. Some evidence of local crime pattern changes after the repeal was found. The repeal
was associated with an increase in total crime incidents occurring in the immediate vicinity of the
Sunday-open liquor stores in Philadelphia. At the same time, total crime incidents occurring relatively
farther away from the stores decreased. These pattern changes were present in low socioeconomic
status (SES) neighborhoods, but not evident in high SES ones.
The third chapter evaluates whether the effect of a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) program on
recidivism differ depending on probationer characteristics from a Bayesian perspective. Using
Philadelphia CBT randomized controlled experiment data with a Bayesian hierarchical Gamma-Poisson
model, the study compares average recidivism rates between the CBT and non-CBT groups, conditional
on probationer characteristics. The Bayesian analysis showed that the effects of the CBT program were
statistically meaningfully more evident for the high-risk probationers who were between 10-19 and 30-39
years old, who had more extensive prior experience on probation, and who had a higher ratio of high risk
predictions. These results contradict the frequentist evaluation results that the CBT program had no
statistically significant effect on recidivism.
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Dissertation
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Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
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Criminology
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John M. MacDonald
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alcohol, assimilation, Bayesian, displacement, immigration, probation
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Criminology | Criminology and Criminal Justice
This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1307
THREE ESSAYS ON CRIME AND DELINQUENCY:
IMMIGRATION, ALCOHOL, AND PROBATION

SeungHoon Han

A DISSERTATION
in
Criminology

Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania
In
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
2014

Supervisor of Dissertation Graduate Group Chairperson

_________________________ ___________________________

Dr. John M. MacDonald Dr. Charles Loeffler
Associate Professor of Jerry Lee Assistant Professor
Criminology and Sociology of Criminology

Dissertation Committee:

Charles C. Branas Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Philip J. Cook ITT/Terry Sanford Professor of Public Policy,
Professor of Economics and Sociology, Duke University

Richard J. Gelles The Joanne and Raymond Welsh Chair of Child Welfare
and Family Violence, Professor of Social Policy &
Practice

Emily G. Owens Associate Professor of Criminology
THREE ESSAYS ON CRIME AND DELINQUENCY
: IMMIGRATION, ALCOHOL, AND PROBATION

COPYRIGHT
2014
SeungHoon Han
DEDICATION

Dedicated to all my family and friends….

iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I have many people to whom I am indebted for this dissertation. Without them, I
could never have completed it. John MacDonald, my advisor. I would like to express my
special appreciation to you. Always encouraging me to be devoted to research and
offering appropriate advice and guidance, you helped me to grow as a researcher. You
have also been a good friend in life, not only my role model as a scholar. Philip Cook.
You have always been my sincere mentor since I was a master student (and even before I
came to the US, through your book!). I cannot thank you enough for the invaluable
support you gave me for that long time. I also thank you for introducing to me the world
of criminology, and for recognizing my potential as a researcher. Also, my gratitude to
the committee members, Charles Branas, Richard Gelles, and Emily Owens. Your
insightful comments and questions, along with the encouragement and support you
showed, were extremely helpful in completing this dissertation.
To my dear program colleagues. Jordan Hyatt. I thank you for being my good
friend and academic colleague (and (in)voluntarily an English tutor of mine, too!). You
willingly shared many priceless experiences, for which I am deeply grateful. Also, Jill
Portnoy, Frances Chen, Ellen Donnelly, and Ben Grunwald. I really enjoyed spending my
PhD student life with you, including not only academic stimuli from discussion but also
small chats for relaxation. In addition, Knaykia Hagans, and Janel Baslice. I sincerely
appreciate the warmth you displayed. It was far more than just administrative support.
iv
To my Korean friends. There are far too many names to list here. If you are a
friend who happens to read this statement, I would like to say that I am grateful to you.
I would also like to thank the Business Improvement District (BID) team in the
Rand Corporation, the Philadelphia Police Department, the Pennsylvania Liquor Control
Board, the Philadelphia Adult Probation and Parole Department (APPD), and the Jerry
Lee Center of Criminology (JLC) at the University of Pennsylvania for the data used
herein.
Finally, to my family, and to my beloved wife, HyeSun. I cannot thank you
enough for your endless love, financial and emotional support, and voluntary sacrifices.
Without you, I would not be able to finish this long journey. I love you.

v
ABSTRACT

THREE ESSAYS ON CRIME AND DELINQUENCY
: IMMIGRATION, ALCOHOL, AND PROBATION

SeungHoon Han

John M. MacDonald

This dissertation is a collection of three distinct chapters. The first chapter
explores the associations between various assimilation measures and outcomes of
delinquent risk factor development for immigrant youth from Los Angeles County, CA,
using both logit regression and doubly robust estimation methods. Youth with a low level
of assimilation were more likely to have a high level of attachment to family and school
than those with a high level of assimilation. However, the associations were less evident
for the other delinquent risk factors. Among the assimilation measures used, the
generation status measure was not predictive of the outcomes. The two language-related
assimilation measures were less strongly associated with the outcomes than the
immigrant status measure.
The second chapter investigates crime impacts of the increased alcohol
availability made through repealing a Sunday off-premise liquor sales ban. Since 2003,
Pennsylvania permitted a part of its state-run liquor stores to open on Sunday by
repealing the ban, which enables a quasi-experimental triple difference design. Some
vi
evidence of local crime pattern changes after the repeal was found. The repeal was
associated with an increase in total crime incidents occurring in the immediate vicinity of
the Sunday-open liquor stores in Philadelphia. At the same time, total crime incidents
occurring relatively farther away from the stores decreased. These pattern changes were
present in low socioeconomic status (SES) neighborhoods, but not evident in high SES
ones.
The third chapter evaluates whether the effect of a cognitive behavioral therapy
(CBT) program on recidivism differ depending on probationer characteristics from a
Bayesian perspective. Using Philadelphia CBT randomized controlled experiment data
with a Bayesian hierarchical Gamma-Poisson model, the study compares average
recidivism rates between the CBT and non-CBT groups, conditional on probationer
characteristics. The Bayesian analysis showed that the effects of the CBT program were
statistically meaningfully more evident for the high-risk probationers who were between
10-19 and 30-39 years old, who had more extensive prior experience on probation, and
who had a higher ratio of high risk predictions. These results contradict the frequentist
evaluation results that the CBT program had no statistically significant effect on
recidivism.

vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS

DEDICATION ............................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................. iv
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................. vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................... viii
LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................... xi
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................... xiii
CHAPTER 1. LINKING THE ASSIMILATION OF IMMIGRANT
YOUTH TO DELINQUENT RISK FACTORS ......................................... 1
1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2
1.2. Literature Review......................................................................................................... 4
1.2.1. Definition, Measure, and Theory of "Assimilation" ...................................................... 4
1.2.2. Studies on Immigrant Assimilation Effects ................................................................... 7
1.3. Method ....................................................................................................................... 12
1.3.1. Research Questions ...................................................................................................... 12
1.3.2. Data Sources ................................................................................................................ 12
1.3.3. Variables ...................................................................................................................... 14
1.3.4. Statistical Modeling ..................................................................................................... 19
1.4. Results ........................................................................................................................ 25
1.4.1. Descriptive Statistics .................................................................................................... 25
1.4.2. Effect of Assimilation on Delinquency Risk Factors ................................................... 28
1.5. Robustness Check ...................................................................................................... 38
1.5.1. Bounding Exercise: Multiple Imputation Analysis of Missing Data ........................... 38
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