Thinking: psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment, and decision making

377 Pages·2004·2.42 MB·English

by  David Hardman

Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning,
Judgment and Decision Making
Thinking:PsychologicalPerspectivesonReasoning,JudgmentandDecisionMaking.EditedbyDavidHardmanandLauraMacchi.
(cid:1)C 2003JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd. ISBN 0-471-49457-7
Thinking: Psychological Perspectives
on Reasoning, Judgment and
Decision Making
Edited by
David Hardman
London Metropolitan University, UK
and
Laura Macchi
University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy
JOHN WILEY & SONS, LTD
Copyright(cid:1)C 2003 JohnWiley&SonsLtd,
TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,
WestSussexPO198SQ,England
Telephone [phone]
Email(forordersandcustomerserviceenquiries):[email protected]
VisitourHomePageonwww.wileyeurope.comorwww.wiley.com
AllRightsReserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem
ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,
scanningorotherwise,exceptunderthetermsoftheCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988
orunderthetermsofalicenceissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgencyLtd,90Tottenham
CourtRoad,LondonW1T4LP,UK,withoutthepermissioninwritingofthePublisher.
RequeststothePublishershouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&
SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussexPO198SQ,England,oremailed
[email protected],orfaxedto([phone].
Thispublicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothe
subjectmattercovered.ItissoldontheunderstandingthatthePublisherisnotengagedin
renderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,the
servicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.
OtherWileyEditorialOffices
JohnWiley&SonsInc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,USA
Jossey-Bass,989MarketStreet,SanFrancisco,CA94103-1741,USA
Wiley-VCHVerlagGmbH,Boschstr.12,D-69469Weinheim,Germany
JohnWiley&SonsAustraliaLtd,33ParkRoad,Milton,Queensland4064,Australia
JohnWiley&Sons(Asia)PteLtd,2ClementiLoop#02-01,JinXingDistripark,Singapore129809
JohnWiley&SonsCanadaLtd,22WorcesterRoad,Etobicoke,Ontario,CanadaM9W1L1
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappears
inprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Thinking:psychologicalperspectivesonreasoning,judgmentanddecisionmaking/
editedbyDavidHardmanandLauraMacchi.
p. cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-471-49457-7
1. Thoughtandthinking. 2. Reasoning(Psychology) 3. Judgment. 4. Decisionmaking.
i. Hardman,David. ii. Macchi,Laura,1961–
BF441.T466 2003
153.4−dc21 2003003951
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ISBN0-471-49457-7
Typesetin10/12ptTimesbyTechBooks,NewDelhi,India
PrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyAntonyRoweLtd,Chippenham,Wiltshire
Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepaperresponsiblymanufacturedfromsustainableforestry
inwhichatleasttwotreesareplantedforeachoneusedforpaperproduction.
Contents
ListofContributors vii
Introduction xi
PartI: Reasoning 1
Chapter 1 ATheoryofHypotheticalThinking 3
JonathanSt.B.T.Evans,DavidE.OverandSimonJ.Handley
Chapter 2 IndividualDifferencesintheDevelopmentofReasoningStrategies 23
MaxwellJ.RobertsandElizabethJ.Newton
Chapter 3 GeneralisingIndividualDifferencesandStrategiesAcross
DifferentDeductiveReasoningDomains 45
PadraicMonaghanandKeithStenning
Chapter 4 SuperordinatePrinciples,ConditionsandConditionals 63
NeilFairleyandKenManktelow
Chapter 5 PremiseInterpretationinConditionalReasoning 79
GuyPolitzer
Chapter 6 ProbabilitiesandPragmaticsinConditionalInference:Suppression
andOrderEffects 95
MikeOaksfordandNickChater
PartII: Judgment 123
Chapter 7 VerbalExpressionsofUncertaintyandProbability 125
KarlHalvorTeigenandWibeckeBrun
Chapter 8 PossibilitiesandProbabilities 147
PaoloLegrenzi,VittorioGirotto,MariaSoninoLegrenziand
PhilipN.Johnson-Laird
Chapter 9 ThePartitiveConditionalProbability 165
LauraMacchi
Chapter10 NaiveandyetEnlightened:FromNaturalFrequenciestoFastand
FrugalDecisionTrees 189
LauraMartignon,OliverVitouch,MasanoriTakezawaandMalcolm
R.Forster
vi CONTENTS
Chapter11 MoreisnotAlwaysBetter:TheBenefitsofCognitiveLimits 213
RalphHertwigandPeterM.Todd
Chapter12 Correspondence and Coherence: Indicators of Good Judgment in
WorldPolitics 233
PhilipE.Tetlock
PartIII: DecisionMaking 251
Chapter13 CognitiveMappingofCausalReasoninginStrategicDecision
Making 253
A.JohnMaule,GerardP.HodgkinsonandNicolaJ.Bown
Chapter14 BeliefandPreferenceinDecisionUnderUncertainty 273
CraigR.FoxandKellyE.See
Chapter15 MedicalDecisionScripts:CombiningCognitiveScriptsand
JudgmentStrategiestoAccountFullyforMedicalDecision
Making 315
RobertM.Hamm
Chapter16 OntheAssessmentofDecisionQuality:ConsiderationsRegarding
Utility,ConflictandAccountability 347
GideonKerenandWa¨ndiBruinedeBruin
AuthorIndex 365
SubjectIndex 375
List of Contributors
DrNicolaJ.Bown,CentreforDecisionResearch,LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool,
MauriceKeyworthBuilding,UniversityofLeeds,LeedsLS29JT,UK
DrWa¨ndiBruinedeBruin,DepartmentofSocialandDecisionSciences,Carnegie
MellonUniversity,Pittsburgh,PA15213,USA
DrWibeckeBrun,DepartmentofPsychosocialScience,UniversityofBergen,
Christiesgt12,Bergen,N5015,Norway
ProfessorNickChater,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofWarwick,Coventry,
CV47AL,UK
ProfessorJonathanSt.B.T.Evans,CentreforThinkingandLanguage,Departmentof
Psychology,UniversityofPlymouth,DrakeCircus,Plymouth,DevonPL48AA,UK
DrNeilFairley,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofLeicester,UniversityRoad,
LeicesterLE17RH,UK
ProfessorMalcolmR.Forster,DepartmentofPhilosophy,Universityof
Wisconsin-Madison,Madison,WI53706,USA
ProfessorCraigR.Fox,AndersonSchoolofManagementandDepartmentof
Psychology,UCLA,110WestwoodPlaza,Box951481,LosAngeles,CA90095-1481,
USA
ProfessorVittorioGirotto,LPCCNRS,UniversityofProvence,Aix-en-Provence13100,
France,andDepartmentofArtsandDesign,UniversityofArchitecture,Venice,Italy
ProfessorRobertM.Hamm,ClinicalDecision-MakingProgram,DepartmentofFamily
andPreventiveMedicine,UniversityofOklahomaHealthSciencesCenter,900NE10th
Street,OklahomaCity,OK73104,USA
DrSimonJ.Handley,CentreforThinkingandLanguage,DepartmentofPsychology,
UniversityofPlymouth,DrakeCircus,Plymouth,DevonPL48AA,UK
DrDavidHardman,DepartmentofPsychology,LondonMetropolitanUniversity,
CalcuttaHouse,OldCastleStreet,LondonE17NT,UK
DrRalphHertwig,CenterforAdaptiveBehaviorandCognition,MaxPlanckInstitute
forHumanDevelopment,Lentzeallee94,14195Berlin,Germany
ProfessorGerardP.Hodgkinson,LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool,MauriceKeyworth
Building,UniversityofLeeds,LeedsLS29JT,UK
viii LISTOFCONTRIBUTORS
ProfessorPhilipN.Johnson-Laird,DepartmentofPsychology,PrincetonUniversity,
GreenHall,Princeton,NJ08544,USA
ProfessorGideonKeren,FacultyofTechnologyManagement,EindhovenUniversityof
Technology,POBox513,5600MB,Eindhoven,TheNetherlands
ProfessorPaoloLegrenzi,ProfessorofCognitivePsychology,FacultyofArchitecture,
UniversityInstituteofArchitectureofVenice,Italy
ProfessorMariaSoninoLegrenzi(nowretired)
ProfessorLauraMacchi,Facolta` eDipartimentodiPsicologia,Universita` degliStudidi
Milano-Bicocca,Piazzadell’AteneoNuovo,1,20126Milan,Italy
ProfessorKenManktelow,PsychologyDivision,MCBlock,Universityof
Wolverhampton,WulfrunaStreet,Wolverhampton,WestMidlandsWV11SB,UK
DrLauraMartignon,Fachbereich17,MathematikundInformatik,Universita¨tKassel,
Postfach101380,D-34109Kassel,Germany
DrA.JohnMaule,LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool,MauriceKeyworthBuilding,
UniversityofLeeds,LeedsLS29JT,UK
PadraicMonaghan,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofWarwick,CoventryCV4
7AL,UK
DrElizabethJ.Newton,DepartmentofHumanCommunicationScience,University
CollegeLondon,ChandlerHouse,2WakefieldStreet,LondonWC1N1PF,UK
ProfessorMikeOaksford,SchoolofPsychology,CardiffUniversity,POBox901,Cardiff
CF103YG,UK
ProfessorDavidE.Over,PsychologyDepartment,StPeter’sCampus,Universityof
Sunderland,SunderlandSR6ODD,UK
DrGuyPolitzer,CentreNationaldelaRechercheScientifique(CNRS)—Psychologie
Cognitive,Universite´ deParis8,2,ruedelaLiberte´,93526Saint-Denis,France
DrMaxwellJ.Roberts,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofEssex,WivenhoePark,
Colchester,EssexCO43SQ,UK
KellyE.See,FuquaSchoolofBusiness,DukeUniversity,Box90120,Durham,NC
27708,USA
ProfessorKeithStenning,DivisionofInformatics,UniversityofEdinburgh,2Buccleuch
Place,EdinburghEH89LW,UK
DrMasanoriTakezawa,MaxPlanckInstituteforHumanDevelopment,Centerfor
AdaptiveBehaviorandCognition,Lentzeallee94,14195Berlin,Germany
ProfessorKarlHalvorTeigen,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofOslo,POBox
1094Blindern,N-0317Oslo,Norway
ProfessorPhilipE.Tetlock,HassSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,
CA94720–1900,USA
LISTOFCONTRIBUTORS ix
DrPeterM.Todd,CenterforAdaptiveBehaviorandCognition,MaxPlanckInstitutefor
HumanDevelopment,Lentzeallee94,14195Berlin,Germany
ProfessorOliverVitouch,DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofKlagenfurt,
Universita¨tsstrasse65–67,A-9020Klagenfurt,Austria
Introduction
Thisbookisconcernedwithreasoning,judgmentanddecisionmaking.Reasoningiscon-
cernedwithmakinginferences,judgmentisabouttheformationofbeliefsaboutthelike-
lihood of uncertain events, and decision making is about choosing between alternatives.
These three aspects of cognition are overlapping and interlinked: we may reason when
attemptingtoformajudgment,andourjudgmentsmayinformourdecisionmaking.For
thesakeofconvenience,wehaveorganisedthebookintothreemajorsectionscorresponding
toeachofthesetopics.
Reasoning,judgmentanddecisionmakingeachhaveanormativetheory(respectively,
logic,probabilitytheoryandutilitytheory)thatpredictswhatarationalthinkershoulddo
insomeparticularcircumstance,butineachoftheseareaspeoplearefrequentlyobserved
toviolatetherationalnorms.FollowingSimon’s(1956)notionofboundedrationality,as
wellastheheuristicsandbiasesprogrammefromthe1970sonwards(Kahneman,Slovic&
Tversky, 1982), much recent work has suggested that there may be good reasons why
peopleviolaterationalnorms.Thisthemerunsthroughanumberofthechapterspresented
here—forexample,Chapters6,10and11.
The use of strategies and heuristics, as well as the role of individual differences, is
alsodiscussedinseveralchaptersacrossthethreesections.Inreasoning,mosttheoristsin
recentyearshavefocusedonuniversalmechanisms,suchasmentallogicormentalmodels.
Othershavequestionedwhetherthereisauniversalmechanism,andfocusontheacquisition
and use of different strategies (see Chapters 2 and 3). Chapter 1 suggests that deductive
thinking itself may be a strategy that experimental participants have to be persuaded to
adopt. Recent work in judgment has proposed that people may choose from a range of
“fastandfrugal”heuristics,sometimesreferredtoas“one-reasondecisionmaking”.The
focusofthisresearchprogrammehasbeentoshowthatsuchheuristicsare“ecologically
rational”:judgmentsbasedonasingleenvironmentalcuecanbehighlyaccurateandinvolve
littlecognitiveeffort(seeChapters10and11;foranalternativeviewoftheseresults,see
Chapter 9).
InChapter13,Maule,HodgkinsonandBowndistinguishbetweenheuristic(shortcut)
strategiesandmoreelaborativestrategiesinstrategicdecisionmaking,andinChapter15,
Hammdiscussestheroleofscriptsandstrategiesinmedicaldecisionmaking.Dualprocesses
inthinkingarealsodiscussedbyEvansetal.inChapter1.Althoughtheylargelycitethe
reasoningliterature(andareincludedinthereasoningsection),theyproposeatheorythat
theybelievealsoappliestootherareasofthinking.
Individualdifferencesareexaminedinrelationtostrategyuse(Chapters2and3),aswell
asneedforcognition(Chapter13)andneedforcognitiveclosure(Chapter12).
Anotherthemethatoccursinvariouschaptersisthatofbeliefsandbackgroundknowl-
edge,andtherolethattheseplayinthinking.Forexample,backgroundknowledgeisclearly