Theory and Method of Fisheries Forecasting

208 Pages·2022·7.451 MB·English

by  Xinjun Chen

Xinjun Chen   Editor
Theory and
Method
of Fisheries
Forecasting
Theory and Method of Fisheries
Forecasting
Xinjun Chen
Editor
Theory and Method
of Fisheries Forecasting
Editor
XinjunChen
CollegeofMarineScience
ShanghaiOceanUniversity
Shanghai,China
ISBN978-981-19-2955-7 ISBN978-981-19-2956-4 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2956-4
#SpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.2022
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher,
whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation,
reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinany
otherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,
computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.
Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthis
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exemptfromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis
bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernorthe
authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontained
hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwith
regardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.
ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore
189721,Singapore
Preface
Marine biological resources are not only a part of important source of high-
quality protein for mankind, but also provide the material basis for the
sustainable development of human society. The rational development and
utilizationofmarinebiologicalresourcesneedthesupportoffisheriestheories
and methods. With the development of theories and technologies such as
fisheries oceanography, marine remote sensing, and geographic information
system, as well as the increasing demand of marine fishery industry, the
interdisciplinary discipline of theory and method of fisheries forecasting
began to appear in the 1970s and have developed and matured in recent
decades.Ithasbecomeanimportantresearchfieldofmarinefisheryindustry
to understand the spatial distribution and change law of marine biological
resources, and its relationship with climate and marine environment, which
will contribute to the sustainable development and scientific utilization of
marinebiologicalresources.
Fisheriesforecastingisthemaincontentoffisheriesoceanography,andit
isalso thecomprehensiveapplicationofthebasicprinciplesandmethods of
fisheriesoceanographyinmarinefisheries.Itsresearchcontentistopredictthe
elements of fishery resources in a certain period and within a certain water
areainthefuture,suchasfishingseason,fishingground,fishpopulation,and
possiblecatch.Withthedevelopmentandapplicationofinformationtechnol-
ogy (Geographic Information System), space technology (Marine Remote
Sensing), and expert system,the means and methods offisheries forecasting
havebeendeepenedanddevelopedcontinuously.Fromthetraditionalsingle
species and single factor to the current marine ecosystem, the accuracy of
fisheries forecasting has also been greatly improved and will be improved
with the development of artificial intelligence and other technologies. The
theory and method of fisheries forecasting have also been further improved
anddevelopedinthefuture.
Thisbookisdividedintofourpartsandsevenchapters.Thefirstpartisthe
introduction,whichmainlyintroducestheconceptoffisheriesforecastingand
itsrelationshipwithotherdisciplinesandreviewstheresearchstatusathome
and abroad. The second part is the theoretical basis of fisheries forecasting,
mainlyincludingdescriptionoftheglobalmarineenvironment,theshoaling,
andmigrationoffishanditsrelationshipwithmarineenvironment,thebasic
theory of fishing ground formation, etc. It focuses on the general laws of
environmentalfactorssuchassurfacetemperatureaffectingfishbehaviorand
v
vi Preface
distribution,aswellasthetypesandbasicprinciplesoffivekindsofexcellent
fishing ground. The third part mainly introduces the basic theories and
methodsof fisheries forecasting, aswellas the application ofmarine remote
sensing, geographic information system, habitat theory, and artificial intelli-
genceinthefisheriesforecasting.Thefourthpartisthecaseandapplicationof
fisheries forecasting; some important fishery species are taken as studying
casesinforecastingthecentralfishingground,fishingseason,catch,resource
abundance, and so on. At the same time, it summarizes and analyzes the
impact of climate change on resources and fishing grounds of important
economicspecies.
Thisbookwillprovideareferencematerialforthosewhowanttoengagein
fisheries or fishery-related work, which is applicable to undergraduate, post-
graduate,trainingeducation,andfishery-relatedpersonnel.Meanwhile,dueto
thelimitationsoflengthandreferencematerials,aswellasthelimitedlevelof
authors, there are still many inappropriate points in this book. Readers are
requestedtomakecorrectionsandsuggestions.
Shanghai,China XinjunChen
Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1
XinjunChen
2 OverviewoftheMarineEnvironment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 9
XinjunChen
3 ShoalingandMigrationofFishandTheirRelationships
withEnvironment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39
XinjunChen
4 BasicTheoriesofFormationofFishingGround. . .. . . .. . ... 87
XinjunChen
5 BasicPrinciplesandMethodsofFisheriesForecasting. . . . . .. 109
XinjunChen,WeiYu,andJintaoWang
6 CaseStudiesofFisheriesForecasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
XinjunChen,JintaoWang,andWeiYu
7 EffectsofGlobalClimateChangesonMarineFishery
Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 173
XinjunChen
vii
Editors and Contributors
About the Editor
Xinjun Chen is Professor, Dean of College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai
Ocean University. He is also Director of National Engineering Research
Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Director of Key Laboratory of Sustainable
Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Director of China Oceanic
Fisheries Data Center, and Head of Squid Fishing Technology Group of
ChinaOceanicFisheriesAssociation
Contributors
Xinjun Chen College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University,
Shanghai,China
Jintao Wang College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University,
Shanghai,China
WeiYu CollegeofMarineSciences,ShanghaiOceanUniversity,Shanghai,
China
ix
Abbreviations
δ TheaveragedensityofthefloatingsubstancesintimeT
ξ Thedisasterthreshold
ba Thegrayparameter
△ Theosmoticpressure
△S Thespatialgradientdistributionofenvironmentalfactors
△T ThewatertemperaturedifferencebetweenpointsAandB
△T/△Z Theintensityofthethermocline
△T Seatemperaturedifferencefrom0to100m
1
△T Seatemperaturedifferencefrom0to50m
2
△WS Theamountofchangeinsalinity
△WT Theamountofchangeintemperature
△X Thehorizontaldistanceofseaarea
△Z Thethicknessofthethermocline
AIC Akaikeinformationcriterion
AKFIN AlaskaFisheriesInformationNetwork
AMM Arithmeticmeanmodel
ANNs Artificialneuralnetworks
ANOVA Analysisofvariance
APT Automaticpicturetransmission
ATA Airtemperatureanomaly
AVHRR AdvancedVeryHighResolutionRadiometer
B Thecumulativematrix
BP Backpropagation
c Theposteriorierrorratio
C MSEratiovaluefordeterminingprecisiontestinggrades
0
CBR Case-basedreasoning
CCAMLR TheCommissionfortheConservationofAntarcticMarine
LivingResources
CDOM Coloreddissolvedorganicmatter
Chl-a Chlorophyll-a
Ci theyieldoffishingareai
CLS CollecteLocalisationSatellites
CPM Continuedproductmodel
CPUE Catchperuniteffort
CZCS CoastalZoneColorScanner
D Theshoalingoffish
xi
xii Abbreviations
DMSP DefenseMeteorologicalSatelliteProgram
EBP Errorbackpropagation
EKE Eddykineticenergy
ENSO ElNiño-SouthernOscillation
ERS EuropeanRemote-SensingSatellite
ɛ Theerrorterm
FAO FoodandAgricultureOrganization
FG Thelatitudeofthegravitycenterrelatedtothedistributionof
Lat
O.bartramii
FG Thelongitudeofthegravitycenterrelatedtothedistributionof
Long
O.bartramii
FNN Fuzzyneuralnetwork
FVCOM FiniteVolumeCoastalOceanModel
GAM Generalizedadditivemodel
GEO Geosynchronous
GEOSAT GeodeticSatellite
GIS GeographicInformationSystem
GLMs Generalizedlinearmodels
GM Graymodel
GMM Geometricmeanmodel
GOES GeostationaryOperationalEnvironmentalSatellite
GPS GlobalPositioningSystem
HEP Habitatevaluationprocedures
HNLC High-nutrient,low-chlorophyll
HSI Habitatsuitabilityindex
HY-1B HaiYang-1B
IBM Individual-basedmodel
JAFIC JapanFisheriesInformationServiceCenter
K Thedegreeofconvergence
KOMPSAT KoreanMulti-PurposeSatellite
K-S Kolmogorov-Smirnov
L Thedistancebetweenthetwowatersystems
LA-ICP-MS Laserablation-inductivelycoupledplasmamassspectrometry
Lat Thelatitudevalueforthe20(cid:1)Cisothermonthe155(cid:1)Elatitude
155
line
Lat Thelatitudevalueforthe20(cid:1)Cisothermonthe160(cid:1)Elatitude
160
line
MAXM Maximummodel
MINM Minimummodel
MLD Themixedlayerdepth
MODIS ModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometer
MSE Meansquareerror
N Theresourcequantityofthetaggedfishspecies
M Thetotalnumberinthefishingarea
NAO NorthAtlanticOscillation
NMFS NationalMarineFisheriesService
NOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration