The Sixth Crisis: Iran, Israel, America, and the Rumors of War

222 Pages·2010·0.88 MB·English

by  Dana Allin

The Sixth Crisis
This page intentionally left blank
dana h. allin and
steven simon
The Sixth Crisis
Iran, Israel, America and
the Rumors of War
1
2010
An International Institute for Strategic Studies book
3
Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further
Oxford University’s objective of excellence
in research, scholarship, and education.
Oxford New York
Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi
Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi
New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto
With offi ces in
Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece
Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore
South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam
Copyright © 2010 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Published by Oxford University Press, Inc.
198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016
www.oup.com
Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Allin, Dana H., 1958–
The sixth crisis : Iran, Israel, America, and the rumors of war / Dana H. Allin and
Steven Simon.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN978–0–19–975449–6
1. Nuclear weapons—Iran. 2. Iran—Military policy. 3. Israel—Military policy.
4. Iran—Foreign relations—United States. 5. United States—Foreign
relations—Iran. 6. Iran—Foreign relations—Israel. 7. Israel—Foreign
relations—Iran. I. Simon, Steven. II. Title.
UA853.I7A452010
355.02'170955—dc22 2010014504
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
For my father, Julius Simon
For my daughter, Sophie
This page intentionally left blank
And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars;
See that you are not alarmed; for this must take
place, but the end is not yet
—Matthew24:7 (RSV)
This page intentionally left blank
Acknowledgments
This book is the product of the authors’ mutual and sep-
arate interests and preoccupations going back for years.
Convinced that U.S. foreign policy, particularly regard-
ing the Middle East, went fundamentally off the rails in
the years after September 11,2001, we were both hopeful
about the Obama administration’s efforts to get Amer-
ica back on track, and apprehensive about its chances of
success. The build-up of tensions stemming from Iran’s
progress toward a nuclear capability, along with the tragic
and dangerous stalemate between Israel and Palestine,
seemed to us to call out for a book-length assessment of
Obama strategies and Middle East realities.
A principal vehicle for our inquiry has been a series of
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) work-
shops assessing the Iranian challenge in relation to the
wider array of Middle East confl icts and tensions. The proj-
ect was supported generously by the Carnegie Corporation