The Shadow of the Past: Reputation and Military Alliances before the First World War

249 Pages·2011·1.01 MB·English

by  Gregory D. Miller

The Shadow of the Past
A volume in the series
Cornell Studies in Security Affairs
edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt
A list of titles in this series is available at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.
The Shadow of the Past
Reputation and Military Alliances
before the First World War
Gregory D. Miller
Cornell University Press
Ithaca and London
Copyright © 2012 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review,
this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any
form without permission in writing from the publisher. For
information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512
East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.
First published 2012 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Miller, Gregory D., 1973–
The shadow of the past : reputation and military alliances
before the First World War / Gregory D. Miller
p. cm. — (Cornell studies in security affairs)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8014-5031-0 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Europe—Foreign relations—1871–1918. 2. Reputation
(Law) 3. Alliances. I. Title. II. Series: Cornell studies
in security affairs.
D453.M55 2012
940.3'112—dc23 2011027256
Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally
responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible
in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-
based, low-VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled,
totally chlorine-free, or partly composed of nonwood fi bers.
For further information, visit our website at www.cornellpress.
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Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Dedicated to my parents, Daniel and Susan Miller,
and to my daughter, Brooke

Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
1. Alliances and Reputation in International Relations 1
2. Reliability and Alliance Behavior 35
3. The End of Splendid Isolation: British Pursuit of
an Ally, 1901–1905 63
4. The First Moroccan Crisis: Testing the Anglo-French
Entente, 1904–1907 92
5. The Bosnia-Herzegovina Crisis: Expanding the
Entente, 1907–1911 126
6. The Agadir Crisis: Rolling toward War, 1910–1914 152
7. Summary and Expansion of Findings 182
Appendixes
A. First Treaty of Alliance between Austria-Hungary,
Germany, and Italy, 20 May 1882 209
viii Contents
B. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 30 January 1902 213
C. Declaration between the United Kingdom and France
Respecting Egypt and Morocco, 8 April 1904 217
D. The Second Anglo-Japanese Agreement, 12 August 1905 221
E. Conventions between Russia and the United
Kingdom Relating to Persia, Afghanistan, and
Tibet, 31 August 1907 225
Index 229
Figures and Tables
Figure 1.1 The prisoner’s dilemma 13
Figure 1.2 The chain store paradox 15
Table 3.1 The great powers in 1901 69
Table 3.2 Review of chapter fi ndings 88
Table 4.1 The great powers during the First
Moroccan Crisis (1905) 98
Table 4.2 Review of chapter fi ndings 122
Table 5.1 The great powers during the
Bosnia-Herzegovina Crisis (1908) 132
Table 5.2 Review of chapter fi ndings 148
Table 6.1 The great powers during the Agadir Crisis (1911) 161
Table 6.2 Review of chapter fi ndings 179
Table 7.1 Summary of results 187
Table 7.2 A reputation theory of confl ict initiation
(where states A and B are allies and states
A and C are adversaries) 192