Table Of ContentInternational Series in
Operations Research & Management Science
Marcus Matthias Keupp Editor
The Security
of Critical
Infrastructures
Risk, Resilience and Defense
International Series in Operations Research
& Management Science
Volume 288
SeriesEditor
CamilleC.Price
DepartmentofComputerScience,StephenF.AustinStateUniversity,
Nacogdoches,TX,USA
AssociateEditor
JoeZhu
FoisieBusinessSchool,WorcesterPolytechnicInstitute,Worcester,MA,USA
FoundingEditor
FrederickS.Hillier
StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA,USA
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/6161
Marcus Matthias Keupp
Editor
The Security of Critical
Infrastructures
Risk, Resilience and Defense
Editor
MarcusMatthiasKeupp
DepartmentofDefenseEconomics
MilitaryAcademyattheSwissFederal
InstituteofTechnologyZurich
Birmensdorf,Switzerland
ISSN0884-8289 ISSN2214-7934 (electronic)
InternationalSeriesinOperationsResearch&ManagementScience
ISBN978-3-030-41825-0 ISBN978-3-030-41826-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41826-7
©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof
thematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation,
broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation
storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology
nowknownorhereafterdeveloped.
Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication
doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant
protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook
arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor
theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany
errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional
claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.
ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG.
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland
Preface
Itaquesiquivolueritexhiscommentariisanimadvertereet
eligeregenusstructurae,perpetuitatispoteritrationemhabere.
—Vitruvius,Dearchitectura,libersecundus,VIII(8)
Criticalinfrastructuresarenowatargetforintentionalattacks.Thisvolumeresponds
to this challenge. It analyzes the risk structure of such attacks, the resilience with
whichcriticalinfrastructuresmaywithstandthem,andthedefensesavailabletofight
them.
Thisvolumerepresents5yearsofwork.Manyexpertsfromreputedinstitutions
have contributed chapters. Six among them served in the militia system of the
SwissArmedForces,combiningandleveragingtheircivilianandmilitaryexpertise.
All authors have delivered contributions that are of interest to national defense,
homelandsecurity,academicresearch,andpracticalinfrastructureoperations.
It is always a challenge to find a balance between specialization and general-
ization.Astheeditorofthisvolume,myapproachwastointerpretSwitzerlandas
a densely populated model economy, both regarding human beings and complex
criticalinfrastructurenetworks.Thisenvironmentprovidesexcellentconditionsfor
scenario modeling and simulation. I sincerely hope that the solutions this volume
offers will be transferable and applicable to many other economies. Many authors
haveprovidedgenerallyapplicablemodelsandcode,andIinvitefutureresearchto
expandandbuildonthecontributionspresentedhere.
While editing the volume I could always rely on the support of my team of
assistants,anditistothemthatIexpressmygratitude.DimitriPerciaDavid,Kilian
Cuche, Adrien Coste, and Sébastien Gillard have all contributed significantly to
thecoordinationofacomplexLaTeXtemplateandproductionschedule.Finally,I
thankmyexecutiveeditoratSpringerNature,Dr.ChristianRauscher,whoalways
supported the work and positioned it in the renowned International Series in
OperationsResearch&ManagementScience.
v
vi Preface
The challenge to defend infrastructure against intentional attack is certainly an
architecturalone.Ashistoricallygrownamalgamsofinfrastructuresarereplaced,a
systematic and defense-oriented approach to the construction of novel generations
should be considered after much careful scenario analysis. Now the readers must
judge whether or not these notes are productive for this purpose, and I hope they
liveuptoVitruvius’immortalwords:Chooseyourstructureponderingthesenotes,
andyouwillhavesomethingthatwilllast.
BirmensdorfZH,Switzerland MarcusMatthiasKeupp
April2020
Contents
TheSecurityofCriticalInfrastructures:IntroductionandOverview..... 1
MarcusMatthiasKeupp
PartI Risk
NetworksofCriticalInfrastructures:CostEstimationandDefense
ofAttacks ......................................................................... 17
ReinhardBürgy
InsurabilityofCriticalInfrastructures........................................ 33
SébastienGillardandDonninoAnderhalden
PartII Resilience
Deliberate Attacks on Freshwater Supply Systems:
ACompartmentalizedModelforDamageAssessment...................... 47
JonasI.Liechti
MassCasualtyTreatmentAfterAttacksonCriticalInfrastructure:
AnEconomicPerspective ....................................................... 61
Jean-ClaudeMetzgerandMarcusMatthiasKeupp
Vulnerability and Resilience of National Power Grids:
AGraph-TheoreticalOptimizationApproachandEmpirical
Simulation......................................................................... 77
Jean-ClaudeMetzger,SašaParad¯,StefanRavizza,andMarcusM.Keupp
ARobustSupplyChainModelforaNationalEconomywithMany
Goods,MultipleImportRoutes,andCompulsoryStockpiling ............. 95
EvaMorstein
AssessingtheReliabilityofStreetNetworks:ACaseStudyBased
ontheSwissStreetNetwork .................................................... 111
PhilippBaumannandMarcusM.Keupp
vii
viii Contents
SecuringtheAir–GroundLinkinAviation ................................... 131
MartinStrohmeier,IvanMartinovic,andVincentLenders
PartIII Defense
OnDependableCyber-PhysicalSpacesofCriticalInfrastructures........ 157
TimoKehrer,ChristosTsigkanos,andCarloGhezzi
ForensicAnalysisasIterativeLearning ....................................... 177
EoghanCaseyandBruceNikkel
DefendingCriticalInfrastructure:InsightsfromRecommender
Systems............................................................................ 193
SébastienGillard
About the Authors
Donnino Anderhalden received a Doctorate in Theoretical Physics from the
UniversityofZurich,Switzerland,in2013.Sincethen,hehasbeenworkinginthe
reinsurance industry, first as a pricing actuary and currently as a risk management
actuary. His main interests involve various aspects of quantitative and qualitative
risk management, in particular assessments of emerging risks such as cyber and
terrorism,aswellasinsurabilityanalysis.
Philipp Baumann received his BSc, MSc, and PhD in Business Administration
from the University of Bern (Switzerland) in 2007, 2009, and 2013, respectively.
He did his postdoc at the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations
Research at the University of California, Berkeley. Currently, he is associate
professor at the Department of Business Administration at the University of
Bern. His research interests include optimization in finance, project management
and project scheduling, production planning and control, machine learning, and
network-basedoptimization.HehaspublishedinEuropeanJournalofOperational
Research,FlexibleServicesandManufacturingJournal,IEEETransactionsonBig
Data, International Journal of Production Research, Journal of Scheduling, and
MathematicalMethodsofOperationsResearch.
Reinhard Bürgy received a Doctorate in Economics and Social Sciences from
the University of Fribourg, Switzerland, in 2014. After spending about 3 years at
Polytechnique Montréal and GERAD, Canada, from 2015 to 2018, he returned
to the University of Fribourg where he is currently a senior researcher and
lecturer. Reinhard’s main research interests are in the development of optimiza-
tion models and methods for solving practically relevant planning, routing, and
scheduling problems. In particular, he has been developing generic combinatorial
optimization algorithms for solving job-shop scheduling problems with complex
process characteristics and complicated objective functions. His algorithms are,
for example, applied to (re-)schedule trains in large rail networks and to schedule
robots,machines,andautomatedguidedvehiclesinflexiblemanufacturingsystems.
ix
