Table Of ContentVisit our website for other free publication
downloads
http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
To rate this publication click here.
STRATEGIC
STUDIES
INSTITUTE
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War
College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to
national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate-
gic analysis.
The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic
studies that develop policy recommendations on:
• Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined
employment of military forces;
• Regional strategic appraisals;
• The nature of land warfare;
• Matters affecting the Army’s future;
• The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and
• Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army.
Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics
having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De-
fense, and the larger national security community.
In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of
special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of
conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re-
ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders.
The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the
Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par-
ticipation in national security policy formulation.
THE SAUDI-IRANIAN RIVALRY
AND THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE EAST SECURITY
W. Andrew Terrill
December 2011
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the De-
partment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.
Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publica-
tions enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose
classified information, jeopardize operations security, or mis-
represent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empow-
ers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives
in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is
cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-
tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy-
righted.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should
be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 632 Wright Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046.
*****
I would like to thank Dr. Steven Metz, Mary J. Pelusi, and
Sarah E. Womer for their useful and insightful comments on ear-
ly drafts of this work. I would also like to thank Jacob A. Librizzi
for his valuable work as my research assistant. All mistakes in
this work—be they of fact, omission, interpretation, or specula-
tion—are entirely my own.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be
downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of
this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last
by placing an order on the SSI website. The SSI website address
is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil.
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail
newsletter to update the national security community on the re-
search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and
upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet-
ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research
analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please
subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.
army.mil/newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-518-6
ii
FOREWORD
The Middle East is undergoing an era of revolu-
tionary change that is challenging the foreign policies
of the United States and virtually all regional states. In
this new environment, opportunities and challenges
exist for a number of regional and extra-regional states
to advance their national interests, while attempting to
marginalize those of their rivals. Despite these chang-
es, the Arab Spring and revolutions in countries such
as Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have not altered some
of the more fundamental aspects of the Middle East
regional situation. One of the most important rivalries
defining the strategic landscape of the Middle East is
between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The competition be-
tween these two states is long-standing, but it is espe-
cially important now. Political relationships that have
endured for decades, such as the one between Iran
and Syria, now seem to be in some danger, depend-
ing upon how current struggles play out. The stakes in
this rivalry can thus become higher in an environment
of revolutionary upheaval.
In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill con-
siders an old rivalry as it transitions into a new en-
vironment. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been rivals
since at least the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. As
Dr. Terrill points out, this competition has taken a
variety of forms and was especially intense in the
aftermath of the Iranian revolution. Under Iranian
President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the ri-
valry relaxed to some extent, but a permanent détente
was not possible because of a backlash within the
Iranian political system. The successor presidency of
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad further damaged relations
iii
and the Saudi-Iranian relationship was dealt an espe-
cially serious setback over the Saudi-led intervention
into Bahrain. Because the current Saudi-Iranian rival-
ry is taking place in a variety of countries of interest to
the United States, an awareness of the motivations and
issues associated with the rivalry is important to U.S.
policymakers. Dr. Terrill clearly identifies the struggle
as region-wide, encompassing countries as far apart
as Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and espe-
cially Iraq, where the United States is preparing to
withdraw almost all of its troops. He also notes that
while U.S. interests often overlap with those of Saudi
Arabia, such is not always the case. Saudi Arabia and
the United States often work well together in seeking
to contain Iranian influence, but Saudi Arabia also is
an absolute monarchy opposed to Arab democracy
or any democratic reform of the existing monarchical
systems.
The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer
this monograph as a contribution to the national se-
curity debate on this important subject, as our nation
continues to grapple with a variety of problems as-
sociated with the future of the Middle East and the
ongoing challenge of advancing U.S. interests in a
time of Middle East turbulence. This analysis should
be especially useful to U.S. strategic leaders and in-
telligence professionals as they seek to address the
complicated interplay of factors related to regional se-
curity issues, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq,
fighting terrorism, and providing for the support of
local allies. This work may also benefit those seeking
better understanding of long-range issues of Middle
Eastern and global security. We hope this work will
iv
be of benefit to officers of all services, as well as other
U.S. government officials involved in military and se-
curity assistance planning.
DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.
Director
Strategic Studies Institute
v
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
W. ANDREW TERRILL joined the Strategic Stud-
ies Institute (SSI) in October 2001, and is SSI’s Middle
East specialist. Prior to his appointment, he served as
a Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the Inter-
national Assessments Division of the Lawrence Liver-
more National Laboratory (LLNL). In 1998-99, Dr.
Terrill also served as a Visiting Professor at the U.S.
Air War College on assignment from LLNL. He is a
former faculty member at Old Dominion University in
Norfolk, Virginia and has taught adjunct at a variety
of other colleges and universities. He is a retired U.S.
Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area
Officer (Middle East). Dr. Terrill has published in nu-
merous academic journals on topics including nuclear
proliferation, the Iran-Iraq War, Operation DESERT
STORM, Middle Eastern chemical weapons and bal-
listic missile proliferation, terrorism, and commando
operations. He is also the author of Global Security
Watch-Jordan (Praeger, 2010). Since 1994, at U.S. State
Department invitation, Dr. Terrill has participated in
the Middle Eastern Track 2 talks, which are part of
the Middle East Peace Process. He has also served as
a member of the military and security working group
of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group through-
out its existence in 2006. Dr. Terrill holds a B.A. from
California State Polytechnic University and an M.A.
from the University of California, Riverside, both in
political science, and a Ph.D. in international relations
from Claremont Graduate University, Claremont,
California.
vii
