The Robot Revolution: Understanding The Social And Economic Impact

181 Pages·2019·8.749 MB·English

by  John Hudson

The Robot Revolution
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The picture depicts the author (far left) at the small manufacturing
firm Perrey Dugmore Ltd in Birmingham, where as a young man
he worked as an engineer in the mid 1960s
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The Robot
Revolution
Understanding the Social and Economic
Impact
John Hudson
Department of Economics, University of Bath, UK
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA
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© John Hudson 2019
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior
permission of the publisher.
Published by
Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
The Lypiatts
15 Lansdown Road
Cheltenham
Glos GL50 2JA
UK
Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
William Pratt House
9 Dewey Court
Northampton
Massachusetts 01060
USA
A catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018967524
This book is available electronically in the
Economics subject collection
DOI 10.4337/9781788974486
ISBN 978 1 78897 447 9 (cased)
ISBN 978 1 78897 448 6 (eBook)
Typeset by Servis Filmsetting Ltd, Stockport, Cheshire
2
0
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Dedication
For Effie and Rory
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Contents
List of figures x
List of tables xi
Foreword xii
Preface xv
List of acronyms xix
1 Innovation 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The process of innovation 3
1.3 The stages of innovation 6
1.4 Opposition to automation and new technology 10
1.5 Innovation case studies 11
1.6 Reflections on innovation 15
1.7 Is innovation good for society? 16
2 The history and development of robots 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Early robots 20
2.3 The modern age of robots 21
2.4 Robots in fiction and mythology 24
2.5 Robots today 28
2.6 Conclusions 31
3 Robots now and in the future 33
3.1 Industrial robots 33
3.2 Warehouse robots 33
3.3 Agricultural robots 35
3.4 Autonomous vehicles 35
3.5 Caring robots 37
3.6 Medical robots 38
3.7 Robots in education 39
3.8 Robot security 40
vii
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viii The robot revolution
3.9 Robot soldiers 42
3.10 Robots in dangerous situations 43
3.11 Modular robots 44
3.12 Robots’ close cousins 44
3.13 The future 45
Appendix 3.1 Some definitions 47
4 The science of robots 52
4.1 Introduction 52
4.2 Manoeuvrability 53
4.3 Navigation and awareness of position and location 54
4.4 Guiding intelligence 55
4.5 Artificial intelligence 56
4.6 Integrating the three strands 60
4.7 Philosophical questions 61
5 The impact on employment, unemployment and wages 63
5.1 Introduction 63
5.2 The literature 64
5.3 Theory: the impact of robots on the labour market 69
5.4 Empirical work 71
5.5 Conclusions 83
Appendix 5.1 85
6 The economic, social and political impact 87
6.1 Introduction 87
6.2 The wider economic impact 87
6.3 The impact on politics 90
6.4 The impact on people 91
6.5 The singularity and related hypotheses 94
6.6 The impact on society 95
6.7 An increasingly elderly population 97
6.8 The impact on globalisation, developing nations
and economic convergence 98
6.9 The impact on rural and peripheral areas 98
6.10 The known and unknown unknowns 99
7 People’s hopes and fears 101
7.1 Introduction 101
7.2 The literature 101
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Contents ix
7.3 Background 103
7.4 People’s attitudes to robots 104
7.5 Regression results on individual responses 109
7.6 Reflections 113
Appendix 7.1 116
8 P olicies to deal with potential problems and to realise the
promise 117
8.1 Introduction 117
8.2 Maximising the positive benefits 118
8.3 Solving the economic problems 121
8.4 Solving the political problems 122
8.5 Solving the social problems 123
8.6 Solving the military problems 125
8.7 A policy framework for national governments 127
8.8 An international dimension 128
8.9 A matter of urgency 130
8.10 The optimal level of robots 131
9 A changing world of innovation 133
9.1 Introduction 133
9.2 Multi-dimensional innovation 134
9.3 The changing role of universities 136
9.4 The changing role of firms involved in innovation 138
9.5 The changing role of governments in innovation 139
9.6 The role of public attitudes 140
9.7 An extended model of innovation 141
References 144
Index 157
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