The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power

263 Pages·2015·2.19 MB·English

by  Alex de Waal

Table of Contents
Dedication
Title page
Copyright page
Figures and Maps
Figures
Maps
Acronyms
Preface and Acknowledgements
1: Introduction
The View from the Edge
A Vignette: The Darfur Negotiations
Vernacular Politics in Sudan
From Political Vernacular to Political Theory
Outline of the Book
Notes
2: The Political Marketplace
‘No Condition is Permanent’
The Political Marketplace and Real Politics
Political Entrepreneurs and Business Managers
Specifying the Variables of ‘Real Politics’
State-Building versus Political-Business Management
A Story of Men
Notes
3: The Horn of Africa
Visualizing the Horn of Africa
A Laboratory of Conflicts
The Contested Political Geography of the Horn
When Things Fell Apart
Africa's Subcontinental War
The New Rentierism and the African Security Architecture
Notes
4: Darfur
A Near-Perfect Political Marketplace
Closed Districts and the Thirty Years' War
The Auction of Loyalties
Regulating the Market?
The Functions and Limits of Violence
Implications: the Interwar
Notes
5: Sudan
The Unexpected Survivor
The Financial Skeleton of Sudanese Politics
Nimeiri's Chameleon Dictatorship 1969–85
Sadiq al Mahdi's Impossible Balancing Act
The 1990s: Survival Against the Odds
The Oil Boom and Rentier Peace
Post-Separation Sudan
Implications
Notes
6: South Sudan
The Price of Independence
Garang's Challenges
Salva's Business Plan
The Skeleton of the South Sudanese State
New War, Old Peace
An Alternative Ethic?
Notes
7: Somalia
Mogadishu 1992
The Somali Nation and State
Siyad Barre's Security Rentier Kleptocracy
Commerce without a State
Political Rentierism without a State
The Communications Revolution
Islamist Challenges
Globalized Somalia
Piracy and Counter-Piracy
Conclusion
Notes
8: Somaliland
Somaliland Exceptionalism
Convening Somaliland
Political Finance
How Was Somaliland Secured?
Implications
Notes
9: Eritrea
Fascism and Maoism
Militarized Developmental State- and Nation-Building
Funding a Garrison State, 2001–2011
The Seeds of a Rentier Political Marketplace
Implications
Notes
10: Ethiopia
The Ethiopian Configuration
Meles Zenawi in Government: Theory and Practice
Is State Building (Still) Possible?
Notes
11: Transnational Patronage and Dollarization
The ‘Non-Integrated Gap’
The Commodities Boom
Illicit Finance
Aid Rents and Global Governance
Counter-Terrorism Rent
Criminal and Law-Enforcement Rents
The ‘New Peacekeeping’
Peacemaking in the Political Marketplace
Globalizing Patronage
Notes
12: Towards a More Perfect Marketplace?
Political Circuitry and the Public Sphere
The Imperial Model: Hub and Spokes
The Politics of Intellectual Life
Transnational Intellectual Careers
Convening and Communication Transformed
Challenges to the Political Marketplace
Towards a More Perfect Political Marketplace
Concluding Thoughts
Notes
Bibliography
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Illustrations
Figure 2.1 Michael Porter's ‘five forces’ of business
Figure 2.2 The ‘five forces’ of political business
Figure 2.3 The ‘stationary bandit’
Figure 2.4 The militarized rentier political marketplace
Map 3.1 The Horn of Africa, 1980
Map 3.2 The Horn of Africa, 2011
Map 5.1 Sudan and South Sudan
Figure 5.1 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1965–84
Source: World Bank datasets, showing general government final consumption expenditure,
net official development assistance and net flows on total debt stock in current US dollars
(millions). Note that the famine-relief programme mounted by USAID and the World Food
Programme in 1984–5 has been excluded.
Figure 5.2 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1997–2012
Source: IMF data, in millions of Sudanese pounds.
Figure 6.1 South Sudan's military payroll
Sources: Small Arms Survey and SPLA estimates.
Figure 6.2 South Sudan's expenditures driven by revenues, not approved budget
Source: World Bank 2013: 4. Amounts in billions of Sudanese/South Sudanese pounds.
Figure 6.3 South Sudan's oil production
Sources: 1999–2012: Republic of South Sudan, Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development, April 2013; 2012–13: estimates from press reports. Amounts in thousand
barrels per day.
Figure 9.1 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (millions of dollar)
Source: SIPRI. Amounts in US dollars.
Figure 9.2 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (% of GDP)
Source: SIPRI.
Dedication
In Memoriam: Meles Zenawi 1955–2012
and for Hiroe, Hannah and Adan
TheR eaPlo litoifc st he
Hor11 Aforfi ca
MoneyW,a ra ndt heB usineosfPs o -vver
Alex de Waal
polity
Copyright page
Copyright © Alex de Waal 2015
The right of Alex de Waal to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright,
Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published in 2015 by Polity Press
Polity Press
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Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK
Polity Press
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Malden, MA 02148, USA
All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication
may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.
ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9557-0
ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9558-7(pb)
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
De Waal, Alex.
The real politics of the Horn of Africa : money, war and the business of power / Alex de Waal.
pages cm
ISBN 978-0-7456-9557-0 (hardback) – ISBN 978-0-7456-9558-7 (pbk.) 1. Political culture–Horn of Africa. 2. Political
violence–Horn of Africa. 3. Political corruption–Horn of Africa. 4. Horn of Africa–Politics and government. I. Title.
DT367.8.D4 2015
306.20963–dc23
2015004483
Typeset in 10.5/12 12 Sabon by Toppanleefung Best-set, Hong Kong
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Clays, Ltd, St Ives PLC
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guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.
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Figures and Maps
Figures
2.1 Michael Porter's ‘five forces’ of business
2.2 The ‘five forces’ of political business
2.3 The ‘stationary bandit’
2.4 The militarized rentier political marketplace
5.1 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1965–84
5.2 Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1997–2012
6.1 South Sudan's military payroll
6.2 South Sudan's expenditures driven by revenues, not approved budget
6.3 South Sudan's oil production
9.1 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (dollar amounts)
9.2 Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (% of GDP)
Maps
3.1 The Horn of Africa, 1980
3.2 The Horn of Africa, 2011
5.1 Sudan and South Sudan