The Rationality of Dictators: Towards a more effective implementation of the responsibility to protect

379 Pages·2017·6.964 MB·English

by  Maartje Weerdesteijn

THE RATIONALITY OF DICTATORS
Series Supranational Cr iminal Law: Capita Selecta, Volume 22
Recently published in the series:
6. Supranational Criminology: Towards a Criminology of International Crimes,
Alette Smeulers and Roelof Haveman (eds.)
7. Individual Criminal Liability for the International Crime of Aggression,
Gerhard Kemp
8. Collective Violence and International Criminal Justice – An Interdisciplinary
Approach, Alette Smeulers (ed.)
9. International Criminal Law from a Swedish Perspective, Iain Cameron,
Malin Thunberg Schunke, Karin Påle Bartes, Christoffer Wong and Petter
Asp
10. The Implementation of the European Arrest Warrant in the European Union:
Law, Policy and Practice, Massimo Fichera
11. The Principle of Mutual Recognition in Cooperation in Criminal Matters,
Annika Suominen
12. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office, Martijn Willem Zwiers
13. Victimological Approaches to International Crimes: Africa, Rianne
Letschert, Roelof Haveman, Anne-Marie de Brouwer, Antony
Pemberton (eds.)
14. The United States and International Criminal Tribunals, Harry M. Rhea
15. EU Sanctions: Law and Policy Issues Concerning Restrictive Measures, Iain
Cameron (ed.)
16. Whose Responsibility? Malin Thunberg Schunke
17. Genocidal Gender and Sexual Violence, Usta Kaitesi
18. Addressing the Intentional Destruction of the Environment during Warfare
under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, Steven Freeland
19. Individual Criminal Liability for the International Crime of Aggression,
Gerhar d Kemp
20. Selective Enforcement and International Criminal Law: The International
Criminal Court and Africa, James Nyawo
21. The Governance of Complementary Global Regimes and the Pursuit of
Human Security: The interaction between the United Nations and the
International Criminal Court, Andrea Marrone
Editors:
Dr. Roelof H. Haveman (editor in chief)
Dr. Paul J.A. De Hert (European Law)
Dr. Alette L. Smeulers (Criminology)
THE RATIONALITY
OF DICTATORS
Towards a more effective implementation
of the responsibility to protect
Maartje Weer desteij n
Cambridge – Antwerp – Portland
Intersentia Ltd
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Th e Rationality of Dictators. Towards a more eff ective implementation of
the responsibility to protect
© Maartje Weerdesteijn 2017
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Cover image: Francisco DE GOYA (1746-1828), Etching, Plate 40 from ‘Los
desastres de la guerra’
ISBN 978-1-78038-443-7
D/2016/7849/103
NUR 828
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Having the opportunity to write this book has been a privilege and I would like
to express my appreciation to Tilburg Law School for making this research
possible.
Furthermore, I would like to thank my supervisors. Th ere have been many
people who have infl uenced and inspired me academically, but none more so
than Alette Smeulers. I feel fortunate to have had such a phenomenal researcher,
gift ed lecturer and above all kind and compassionate person as my supervisor.
You always believed in me, you allowed me to believe in myself and I cannot tell
you how much this meant to me. Th ank you for only strengthening my love and
enthusiasm for the fi eld, for your invaluable comments on my research and for
all the advice you have given me throughout the years.
Tijs Kooijmans once famously said in his inaugural lecture ‘Dit is mijn zaak’
(2011). Th ank you for making it your zaak, task at hand, to provide me with
insights and guidance. Your involvement enhanced the quality of my PhD and
opened my eyes repeatedly to a new perspective. I am very appreciative of the
fact that you always made time for me, and thankful for all the questions you
posed, and answers you gave.
I looked forward to each and every day I worked at Tilburg University and this is
also due to the lovely colleagues I have had the pleasure to work with. Th ank you
for all the laughter and support.
I would also like to thank my former colleagues at Griffi th University, Australia
who graciously welcomed me in their midst as a visiting scholar. From the day I
started there, I felt as though I was part of your team and am so grateful for all
your comments and feedback on my work. Stephen, I cannot thank you enough
for providing me with the opportunity to come to Australia and thoroughly
enjoyed working with you on our article.
In addition, I would like to thank everyone who has made the time to comment
on my work, whether it be in a brainstorm session, by reading a chapter or
through feedback when I presented my research. Of course, I would like to thank
the reading committee in particular: professors Alex Bellamy, Marc
Intersentia v
Acknowledgements
Groenhuijsen, Stephan Parmentier, Nikolas Raijkovic and Wouter Werner. Th e
comments I received have truly enhanced the quality of the book.
My dear paranimfen: thank you so much for everything. Barbora, you are an
amazing scholar, and above all, a great friend. Th ank you for always being there
for me and for all our discussions that stem from a love and passion for the fi eld
that, considering its gruesome nature, not everyone can relate to. Marlijn, we
have come a long way from our shared offi ce at the VU. Th is is what we always
wanted, and now, here we are, published authors. Th roughout it all, I came to
admire you for the beautiful person that you are and feel blessed for being able to
share this journey with you.
I would also like to thank my friends and family. Th ank you for all the faith you
had in me, and all the love you gave me.
Last but not least: Martijn thank you for always being supportive. For
encouraging me to realize my dreams and to pursue my passion. I love you now
and always.
To the next generation, to Daniël who has my heart, may the world you grow up
in be a safer and more peaceful one.
Tilburg, September 2016
vi Intersentia
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Chapter 1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1. Introduction and research question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2. Th e rational dictator as a decision maker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.3. Methodology and scope of the research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3.1. Ideal type typology based on the work of Max Weber . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3.2. Most similar case study design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3.3. Generalizability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.4. Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.5. Towards a more eff ective implementation of the responsibility to
protect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.6. Conclusion: outline of the book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
PART I.
THE THEORY
Chapter 2.
Th e World of the Dictator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2. Terminology and types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2.1. Conceptual confusion: dictators and dictatorships . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2.2. Typologies of dictatorships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.2.3. Typologies of dictators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.3. Th eir domestic policy: how they maintain power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.3.1. A façade of legitimacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.3.2. Co-optation and buying loyalty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.3.3. Repression and violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.4. Th eir foreign policy: dictators in the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.4.1. Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.4.2. Economic sanctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.4.3. Military intervention and war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.4.4. Positive engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
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Contents
2.5. Pitfalls of policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Chapter 3.
Mass Atrocities and the Role of the Dictator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.2. Causes of mass atrocities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.2.1. A non-democratic system of government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.2.2. Cultural enemies: having a history of violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.2.3. Diffi cult life conditions: economic or political crises and war . . . . 61
3.3. Th e role of the dictator: manipulating the preconditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.3.1. Transforming history: creating enemies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.3.2. Seizing the moment: diffi cult life conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.4. Th e role of the dictator: setting up the institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.4.1. Mass movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3.4.2. Creating specialized killing units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.5. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Chapter 4.
Preventing and Stopping Mass Atrocities: the Responsibility to Protect . . . . 75
4.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4.2. Sovereignty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4.3. Atrocity crimes and the United Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
4.4. Evolving duties to protect human rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4.5. Th e responsibility to protect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.5.1. Th e ICISS Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.5.2. Development of R2P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.5.3. Legal status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.5.4. Challenges for implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Chapter 5.
Th e Interaction between States and Heads of State: the Role of Rationality . . 115
5.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.2. International relations and foreign policy analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.3. Rational choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5.4. Th e bounds and limitations of the rational unitary actor model . . . . . . . 126
5.4.1. Domestic factors and foreign policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
5.4.2. Th e infl uence of organizations and groups on decision-making . 128
5.4.3. Simplifying a complex world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
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Contents
5.4.4. Perceptions of losses and gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
5.4.5. Emotions and irrationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.5. Th e dictator as a rational unitary actor? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
5.6. Leadership and personality of autocratic and democratic leaders . . . . . . 141
5.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Chapter 6.
Diff erent Kinds of Rationality: Th e Work of Max Weber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
6.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
6.2. Rationality in the work of Weber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
6.2.1. Rational social action: instrumental rationality and value
rationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
6.2.2. Weber and rational choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
6.2.3. Non-rational and irrational social action: aff ective and
traditional action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
6.2.4. Weber and psychology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
6.3. Th e ethic of conviction and the ethic of responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
6.4. Value and instrumental rationality in foreign policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
6.5. Value rationality, instrumental rationality and mass atrocities . . . . . . . . 165
6.6. Assessing the type of rationality and predictive value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
6.6.1. Looking at the life of the decision maker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
6.6.2. Expectations of behaviour on the basis of the type of
rationality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
6.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
PART II.
THE COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY
Chapter 7.
Pol Pot and the Destruction of Cambodia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
7.2. Explanations for the genocide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
7.3. History and myth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
7.3.1. Ankor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
7.3.2. French colonial rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
7.3.3. World War II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
7.3.4. Independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
7.4. Prelude to the genocide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
7.4.1. Th e Vietnam War and the civil war inside Cambodia . . . . . . . . . 187
7.4.2. Economic downturn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
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Contents
7.5. Pol Pot, the Khmer Rouge and the crimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
7.5.1. Th e ideology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
7.5.2. Using the ideology to legitimize its crimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
7.5.3. Pol Pot’s hold over the revolution and resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
7.5.4. Institutions and perpetrators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
7.6. Th e international community and Cambodia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
7.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Chapter 8.
Milosevic and the Dissolution of Yugoslavia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
8.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
8.2. Explanations for the war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
8.2.1. Ancient hatreds and elite manipulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
8.2.2. Other factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
8.3. History and myths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
8.3.1. Th e Ottoman Empire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
8.3.2. Th e First Yugoslavia, 1918-1941 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
8.3.3. World War II and the Civil War, 1941-1945 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
8.3.4. Tito’s Yugoslavia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
8.4. Prelude to war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
8.4.1. Economic breakdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
8.4.2. End of the Cold War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
8.4.3. Serbian society aft er Tito: Reinterpreting history . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
8.5. Milosevic and public opinion: inciting and legitimizing atrocities . . . . . 228
8.5.1. Authoritarian nature of Milosevic’s regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
8.5.2. Propaganda and the legitimization of the crimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
8.6. Institutions and perpetrators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
8.7. Role of the international community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
8.7.1. Broken promises and failed eff orts for peace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
8.7.2. Too little, too late . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
8.8. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Chapter 9.
Th e Rationality of Pol Pot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
9.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
9.2. Younger years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
9.3. Rise to power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
9.3.1. Returning to Cambodia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
9.3.2. Against all odds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
9.3.3. Tensions with the Vietnamese . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
x Intersentia