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THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 11 9:36:10 PM
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY
OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
IN THE MIDDLE EAST
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 21 9:36:30 PM
SUNY Series in Israeli Studies
Russell Stone, editor
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 31 9:36:33 PM
THE POLITICS
AND STRATEGY OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991
An Israeli Perspective
SHLOMO ARONSON
with the assistance of Oded Brosh
STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK PRESS
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 41 9:36:35 PM
Published by
State University of New York Press, Albany
© 1992 State University of New York
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
No part of this book may be used or reproduced
in any manner whatsoever without written permission
except in the case of brief quotations embodied in
critical articles and reviews.
For information, address State University of New York Press,
State University Plaza, Albany, N.Y., 12246
Production by Marilyn P. Semerad
Marketing by Theresa A. Swierzowski
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Aronson, Shlomo, 1936-
The Politics and strategy of nuclear weapons in the Middle East :
opacity, theory, and reality, 1960-1991: an Israeli perspective j
Shlomo Aronson with the assistance of Oded Brosh.
p. em.- (SUNY series in Israeli studies)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-7914-1207-5 (cloth). - ISBN 0-7914-1208-3 (paper)
1. Middle East-Military policy. 2. Israel- Military policy.
3. Nuclear weapons-Middle East. 4. Nuclear weapons-Israel.
5. Nuclear nonproliferation. I. Brosh, Oded. II. Title.
III. Series.
UA832.A77 1992
355' .033056-dc20 91-46244
CIP
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 51 9:36:38 PM
Contents
Preface vii
Introduction ix
1. Strategy, History, and Politics 1
2. The American Paradigm and Early Efforts to
Limit Proliferation 17
3. The Israeli Paradigm:
American Controlled Opacity? 41
4. American Intervention 61
5. The1967War 83
6. The Road to the Yom Kippur War 113
7. The Walls of Jericho 139
8. Sadat's Peace 151
9. The Doctrine of Opaque Nuclear Monopoly 167
10. Lebanon and the Demise of the
Begin-Sharon Cabinet 185
11. From Lebanon to the Intifada 197
12. The Rebirth of Pan-Arabism? 231
v
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 61 9:36:41 PM
vi The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East
13. India, Pakistan, North Korea, Algeria, Iran,
and the Rest 259
Epilogue: The End of Opacity? 271
Notes 297
Bibliography 357
Indices 371
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 71 9:36:43 PM
Preface
This book was originally part of a larger manuscript entitled "Jew
ish Wars." In "Jewish Wars" I attempted to describe and analyze Zion
ist and Israeli behavior pertaining to war and peace since Hitler's rise to
power. The sociocultural history of the Yishuv and the formative years
of contemporary Israel were studied in some detail, in order to under
stand the Yishuv's political behavior and several crucial decisions made
by Israeli leadership.
The Holocaust loomed heavily over that earlier manuscript, the
sociocultural and domestic political issues, when combined with Israel's
War of Independence, with regional and international developments,
and with decisions of great complexity and autonomous ramifications
such as Israel's nuclear program, were too much for one book.
I have, therefore, separated the nuclear issue from the much
broader context, even if not entirely, and offer it here as a separate book.
Nuclear weapons are important enough to be dealt with as a central
topic, especially when major actors in the Middle East drama consider
them as such.
This book began as a historical-theoretical discourse, then contem
porary history intervened. I completed the first version of the book in
1989, but developments in 1990 and 1991 added to the manuscript two
full chapters and a revised conclusion, which the reader-using a book
that was completed in July 1991-may further revise, using some of
the data, arguments, terminology, and the perspective offered here.
Dr. Oded Brosh, who was my research assistant at the time this
book was being written, was very helpful in gathering the primary and
secondary sources used here and in offering his own ideas.
vii
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viii The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East
I am also indebted to Avner Cohen and Ben Frankel, who cooper
ated with me for some time in dealing with what I originally called
"semicovert" nuclear proliferation. It was Frankel who renamed the
phenomenon" opaque." Since our original work together, we have dis
agreed on several basic issues related to the subject of this book and
the methods of studying it. We have continued our work separately.
Very few common ideas remain in the first chapter, and I alone carry
the responsibility for the book as a whole.
I am especially indebted to Dr. Warren H. Donnelly, Senior Spe
cialist in the Congressional Research Service of the U.S. Library of
Congress; and to Professor Russell Stone, general editor of the SUNY
Series in Israeli Studies, to Clay Morgan, my editor at SUNY Press, and
to Janice Byer, who edited the entire manuscript, my wise and patient
collaborators from the inception of our common enterprise: the trans
formation of my Hebrew-German English into a readable book.
My wife, Dalia, was the only real victim of the nuclear war waged
for five years between me, the sources, and the computer; I am not sure
the outcome will reassure her.
THE POLITICS AND STRATEGY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:Opacity, Theory, and Reality, 1960-1991 An Israeli Per2sp/1e7c/t2iv0 1 91 9:36:49 PM
Introduction
In May 1991, United States President George Bush announced an
arms control initiative for the Middle East. His main targets were
nuclear weapons, missiles capable of carrying them, and other weapons
of mass destruction, such as chemical and biological warheads. Mr.
Bush's public initiative was rather short; but in it, he declared the Mid
dle East to be especially dangerous in regard to nuclear weapons, and
he promised action.
The presidential initiative seemed to be the tip of the iceberg-or of
several icebergs, whose emergence and development are the subject
matter of this book. Bush's initiative-when specifically aimed at the
Middle East-remained general and universal, at least on the face of it.
It addressed itself to phenomena that proliferation scholars sometimes
call"undeclared bombs."1 We shall call them "opaque" nuclear cases.
The adjective "opaque" is derived from physics. In this context, it
can be used to describe what happens when one looks at an object
through a certain type of crystal. Depending on how you hold the crys
tal, you might not see the object clearly-it will be distorted. But if you
hold the crystal"properly," you will see the object very clearly indeed.
This is the challenge: to inquire into very important phenomena
the most important in the nuclear age-when the available, official
information is incomplete, sometimes missing, and many times pur
posely misleading.
I have used three sources of information, so that when all sources
were compatible, an agreed-upon version could be offered. First, I have
used official information-from various sources, public and archival, at
home and abroad. In spite of the veil of security and censorship that
ix
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