The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy

880 Pages·2016·6.071 MB·English

by  Alan Hajek (editor), Christopher Hitchcock (editor)

the oxford handbook of
P R O BA B I L I T Y
A N D
P H I L O S O P H Y

the oxford handbo ok of
......................................................................................................
PROBABILITY
AND
PHILOSOPHY
......................................................................................................
Editedby
ALAN HÁJEK
and
CHRISTOPHER HITCHCOCK
1
3
GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,oxdp,
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Contents
...........................
ListofContributors ix
Introduction 
AlanHájekandChristopherHitchcock
. ProbabilityforEveryone—EvenPhilosophers 
AlanHájekandChristopherHitchcock
PART I: HISTORY
. Pre-historyofProbability 
JamesFranklin
. Probabilityinth-andth-centuryContinentalEurope
fromthePerspectiveofJacobBernoulli’sArtofConjecturing 
EdithDudleySylla
. ProbabilityandItsApplicationinBritainduringtheth
andthCenturies 
DavidR.Bellhouse
. ABriefHistoryofProbabilityTheoryfromto 
HansFischer
. TheOriginsofModernStatistics:TheEnglishStatisticalSchool 
JohnAldrich
. TheOriginsofProbabilisticEpistemology:SomeLeading
th-centuryPhilosophersofProbability 
MariaCarlaGalavotti
PART II: FORMALISM
. Kolmogorov’sAxiomatizationandItsDiscontents 
AidanLyon
. ConditionalProbability 
KennyEaswaran
vi contents
. TheBayesianNetworkStory 
RichardE.NeapolitanandXiaJiang
PART III: ALTERNATIVES TO
STANDARD PROBABILITY THEORY
. MathematicalAlternativestoStandardProbabilitythatProvide
SelectableDegreesofPrecision 
TerrenceL.Fine
. ProbabilityandNonclassicalLogic 
J.RobertG.Williams
. ALogicofComparativeSupport:QualitativeConditional
ProbabilityRelationsRepresentablebyPopperFunctions 
JamesHawthorne
. ImpreciseandIndeterminateProbabilities 
FabioG.Cozman
PART IV: INTERPRETATIONS
AND INTERPRETIVE ISSUES
. SymmetryArgumentsinProbability 
SandyZabell
. Frequentism 
AdamLaCaze
. Subjectivism 
LyleZynda
. Bayesianismvs.FrequentisminStatisticalInference 
JanSprenger
. ThePropensityInterpretation 
DonaldGillies
. BestSystemApproachestoChance 
WolfgangSchwarz
. ProbabilityandRandomness 
AntonyEagle
. ChanceandDeterminism 
RomanFrigg
contents vii
PART V: PROBABILISTIC JUDGMENT
AND ITS APPLICATIONS
. HumanUnderstandingsofProbability 
MichaelSmithson
. ProbabilityElicitation 
StephenC.Hora
. ProbabilisticOpinionPooling 
FranzDietrichandChristianList
PART VI: APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY:
SCIENCE
. QuantumProbability:AnIntroduction 
GuidoBacciagaluppi
. ProbabilitiesinStatisticalMechanics 
WayneC.Myrvold
. ProbabilityinBiology:TheCaseofFitness 
RobertaL.Millstein
PART VII: APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY:
PHILOSOPHY
. ProbabilityinEpistemology 
MatthewKotzen
. ConfirmationTheory 
VincenzoCrupiandKatyaTentori
. Self-LocatingCredences 
MichaelG.Titelbaum
. ProbabilityinLogic 
HannesLeitgeb
. ProbabilityinEthics 
DavidMcCarthy
. ProbabilityandthePhilosophyofReligion 
PaulBartha
viii contents
. ProbabilityinPhilosophyofLanguage 
EricSwanson
. DecisionTheory 
LaraBuchak
. ProbabilisticCausation 
ChristopherHitchcock
NameIndex 
SubjectIndex 
List of Contributors
............................................................
JohnAldrich,EconomicsDivision,SchoolofSocialSciences,UniversityofSouthampton
GuidoBacciagaluppi,DescartesCentrefortheHistoryandPhilosophyofScienceandthe
Humanities,UtrechtUniversity;UMRIHPST,CNRS,ParisandENS;andUMR
SPHERE,CNRS,ParisandParis
PaulBartha,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofBritishColumbia
DavidR.Bellhouse,DepartmentofStatisticalandActuarialSciences,UniversityofWestern
Ontario
LaraBuchak,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
FabioG.Cozman,EngineeringSchool,UniversityofSaoPaolo
VincenzoCrupi,DepartmentofPhilosophyandEducation,UniversityofTurin
FranzDietrich,ParisSchoolofEconomics/CNRSandUniversityofEastAnglia
AntonyEagle,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofAdelaide
KennyEaswaran,DepartmentofPhilosophy,TexasA&MUniversity
Terrence Fine, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Department of
StatisticalSciences,CornellUniversity
HansFischer,DepartmentofMathematics,CatholicUniversityofEichstätt-Ingolstadt
JamesFranklin,SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofNewSouthWales
RomanFrigg,DepartmentofPhilosophy,Logic,andScientificMethod,LondonSchoolof
Economics
Maria Carla Galavotti, Department of Philosophy and Communication, University of
Bologna
DonaldGillies,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityCollegeLondon
AlanHájek,SchoolofPhilosophy,AustralianNationalUniversity
JamesHawthorne,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofOklahoma
Chris Hitchcock, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of
Technology
StephenC.Hora,ManagementScienceandStatistics,UniversityofHawaiiatHilo
x listofcontributors
Xia Jiang, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh School of
Medicine
MatthewKotzen,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill
AdamLaCaze,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofQueensland
Hannes Leitgeb, Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, Ludwig Maximilians
UniversityMunich
ChristianList,DepartmentsofGovernmentandPhilosophy,London,SchoolofEconomics
AidanLyon,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,andMunich
CenterforMathematicalPhilosophy,LudwigMaximiliansUniversityMunich
DavidMcCarthy,DepartmentofPhilosophy,HongKongUniversity
RobertaL.Millstein,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis
WayneC.Myrvold,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofWesternOntario
Richard Neapolitan, Division of Biomedical Informatics, Department of Preventive
Medicine,NorthwesternFeinbergSchoolofMedicine
WolfgangSchwarz,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofEdinburgh
MichaelSmithson,ResearchSchoolofPsychology,AustralianNationalUniversity
JanSprenger,TilburgCenterforLogicandPhilosophyofScience,TilburgUniversity
EricSwanson,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofMichigan
EdithSylla,DepartmentofHistory,NorthCarolinaStateUniversity
Katya Tentori, Center for Mind/Brain Sciences; Department of Cognitive Sciences and
Education,UniversityofTrento
MichaelTitelbaum,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofWisconsin,Madison
J.RobertG.Williams,DepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofLeeds
SandyZabell,DepartmentofStatistics,NorthwesternUniversity
LyleZynda,DepartmentofPhilosophy,IndianaUniversity,SouthBend