The modelling of accident frequency using risk exposure data for the assessment of airport safety

263 Pages·2017·26.53 MB·English

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The modelling of accident
frequency using risk
exposure data for the
assessment of airport safety
areas
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• A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University.
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Publisher: (cid:13)c Ka Yick Wong
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The Modelling Accident Frequency
of
Using Risk Exposure Data
for Assessment
the Airport Safety Areas
of
By
Ka Yick WONG
A Doctoral Thesis
Submitted in fulfilment
the
partial of requirements
for
the
award of
The Degree Doctor Philosophy
of of
Loughborough University
of
March
2007
© Ka Yick Wong 2007
ABSTRACT
This thesis to improving the Airport Safety
makes significant contributions use of
Areas (ASAs) by developing improved
as aviation accident risk mitigation measures
frequency In the
accident models and risk assessment methodologies. recent years,
ASAs Runway End Safety Area Runway Safety Area has
the
adequacy of such as and
increasing The found flaws in the
come under scrutiny. current research existing
lead
ASA techniques that to the
regulations and airport risk assessment provision of
inconsistent
safety margins at airports and runways.
The based database ASA-related
research was on a comprehensive of accidents,
by data, that
which was matched a representative sample of normal operations such
factors between
the exposure to a range of operational and meteorological risk
flights be On this basis, the
accident and normal could compared. criticality of
frequency developed
individual factors
risk was quantified and accident models were
have better
logistic These
using regression. models considerably predictive power
by
compared to models used previous airport risk assessments.
developed
An improved risk assessment technique was coupling the accident
frequency location data, distributions that describe the
yielding
models with accident
distances beyond
frequency of accidents that reach specific the runway end or
The
the
centreline given the risk exposure profile of particular runway. application
demonstrated in Specific
two
of the proposed methodology was case studies.
ASA dimensions for levels
recommendations on were made achieving consistent of
Advances in have implications
the this
safety on each side of runway. made study on
the overall assessment and management of risks at airports.
Key Airport design, land-use
words: risk assessment, aerodrome airport planning,
frequency logistic
third
aircraft accidents, party risk, risk exposure, accident model,
regression
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The this is by the
completion of research a personal milestone marked support,
inspiration
Some
throughout the
patience and of many others. accompanied me
journey, just For
the the
others sections of way. others still, project was only a short
leg together. All their
of a grand voyage played part.
My first to Dr. David Pitfield Dr. Bob Caves,
gratitude goes my supervisors and
be.
this to
without whose expert advice and guidance research would never come
Their to direction for the
readiness provide and encouragement never waned past
three half They the I
and a years. made project possible, successful and enjoyable.
David for his for dissemination,
thank took to
also enthusiasm result which me exotic
locations from Tijuana to Niteroi. Those times be treasured. I
were special and will
Bob for PhD, beyond his duty.
to
am also grateful supervising my which was
I like to thank Andrew Appleyard for helping the database
would also with accident
My to Dr. Ian Humphreys
and any computer problems. appreciation extends and
Mike Hirst, helped in the the Thanks due to the
who early stages of study. are also
EPSRC for funding
the
project.
A friends former in the United States beyond
number of and colleagues also went
their obligations in support of this work. I would like to thank Dick Marchi at ACI-
NA for backing the
this project as well as providing me with contacts and opportunity
his Steve Cornell San Diego International Airport
to at and
present at meetings.
Bonnie Wilson Jackson-Evers International Airport be thanked for
must also
at
in for data. Thanks be
assisting me my quest aircraft weight must equally expressed
to individuals JetBlue, ExpressJet, General Microfilms Inc., NTSB, GAIN, FAA,
at
NOAA NASA for information. Back in
and providing me with valuable
Loughborough University, I like to thank Dr. Richard Gadsden Prof. Paul
would and
logistic
Chung for
answering my many questions on statistics, regression and artificial
intelligence.
My to the brothers LCCF treated like
gratefulness also goes and sisters of who me a
Their friendship,
true times
sibling. care and concern spurred me on countless and
brought laughter fun in Loughborough.
they to
so much and my numerous years
In I like to thank Tina for "add " during the
addition, would cheering oil! write-up and
for her despite flaws. Finally,
above all companionship my weaknesses and my
belongs
to to
utmost gratitude my parents, who never cease unconditionally support
They help
through the
me, without question or pressure. me cut waves of grand
voyage.
"...
FOR HE WENT OUT, NOT KNOWING WHITHER HE WENT,
BUT KNOWING WHOM HE FOLLOWED
"
AND UNDER WHOSE DIRECTION HE WENT.
Matthew Henry Bible Commentary for Genesis 12: 4-5
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND & JUSTIFICATION
1
1.2 GROWING PRESSURES
1
1.2.1 Traffic improvement 2
growth vs. safety
1.2.2 Capacity
2
needs
1.2.3 Development
2
encroachment
1.3 RESEARCH AIMS
3
1.4 THESIS STRUCTURE
4
1.5 EPSRC PROJECT & RESPONSIBILITIES
6
1.6 PRIOR PUBLICATIONS PRESENTATIONS
AND 6
CHAPTER 2 THE RISKS
7
2.1 SAFETY RISK
VS. 7
2.2 ACCIDENTS
AT AND NEAR AIRPORTS 7
2.2.1 Overruns
8
2.2.2 Veer-offs
8
2.2.3 Undershoots
9
2.2.4 Crashes
take-off 9
after
2.2.5 Third 10
party accidents
CHAPTER 3 CURRENT RISK MITIGATION MEASURES
12
3.1 RISK MITIGATION MEASURES
12
3.1.1 Aircraft & 12
certification operational regulations
3.1.2 Aerodrome design 13
3.1.2.1 ICAO Annex 14 13
3.1.2.2 FAA AC150/5300-13 14
3.1.2.3 Engineering 15
solutions
3.1.3 Land-use 16
planning
3.1.3.1 The Netherlands 16
3.1.3.2 United Kingdom 17
3.1.3.3 United States 17
3.2 COMPLIANCE & COSTS 18
3.2.1 State 18
of compliance
3.2.1.1 ICAO Annex 14 18
3.2.1.2 FAA AC150/5300-13 19
3.2.1.3 Land-use 20
planning
3.2.2 Cost 20
of compliance
3.2.2.1 Changes to layout & 20
airport operations
3.2.2.2 Displacement developments 20
of existing
3.2.2.3 Environmental 21
costs
3.2.2.4 Development 21
opportunity
3.2.3 Cost
22
of non-compliance
3.3 DEFICIENCIES CURRENT MEASURES
OF 22
3.3.1 Risk factor
23
consideration
3.3.2 Rigid & 24
prescriptive rules
3.3.3 Compliance 25
mentality
3.3.4 Compartmentalised 25
approach
3.3.5 Fragmented 26
oversight
3.3.6 Opacity & lack 27
of review mechanism
3.3.7 Piecemeal & 27
reactive approach
3.3.8 Regulatory 28
rationale
3.4 SUMMARY FINDINGS
OF 28
CHAPTER 4 SAFETY MANAGEMENT & RISK ASSESSMENT 30
4.1 A PARADIGM SHIFT SAFETY OVERSIGHT
IN 30
4.2 CORE FEATURES SMS
OF 31
4.2.1 Data-driven
31
4.2.2 Risk-based
32
4.2.3 Proactive
32
4.2.4 Objective-based
32
4.2.5 Transparent
32
4.2.6 Systematic 32
4.2.7 Continuous 33
33
4.3 RISK ASSESSMENT
CHAPTER 5 FORMER AIRPORT RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES 35
5.1 CATEGORIES FORMER AIRPORT RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES 35
OF
5.1.1 Airport design 35
studies
5.1.2 Third 35
party risk studies
5.1.3 Facility 36
risk studies
5.1.4 Operational 37
risk studies
5.2 SHORTFALLS PREVIOUS AIRPORT RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES 37
OF
5.2.1 Singular-view 37
approach
5.2.2 Limited factor 38
risk consideration
5.2.3 Data & limitations 39
applicability
5.2.4 Limited 39
modelling capability
40
5.3 SUMMARY FINDINGS
OF
CHAPTER 6 PROPOSED RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 41
41
6.1 THE THREE-PART MODEL
41
6.2 ADVANCES METHODOLOGY
IN
6.2.1 Integrated 41
approach
database 42
6.2.2 Single
comprehensive
42
6.2.3 Normal
operation risk exposure
43
6.2.4 Factors
considered
45
6.2.5 Enhanced
modelling capability
45
6.3 CAUSAL ASSOCIATION
45
6.3.1 Caveats
of causal modelling
46
6.3.2 The
empirical approach
47
6.3.3 Limitations
of the selected methodology
48
6.4 STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
OF
49
CHAPTER 7 THE ACCIDENT DATABASE
49
7.1 ACCIDENT TYPES INCLUDED
50
7.2 DATA SOURCE & FIELDS
51
7.3 ACCIDENT INCLUSION CRITERIA
52
7.4 DATA
LIMITATIONS
52
7.4.1 Missing data
53
7.4.2 Poor data
quality
7.4.3 Inherent difficulties 53
measurement
54
7.4.4 Unregistered
accidents
54
7.4.5 Limited
geographical scope
54
7.5 INCIDENTS
CHAPTER 8 UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS ACCIDENT DATABASE ANALYSIS 56
-
8.1 DATABASE OVERVIEW 57
8.2 ACCIDENTS YEAR 58
BY
59
8.3 ACCIDENTS MONTH
BY
60
8.4 EQUIPMENT CLASS
61
8.5 EQUIPMENT TYPE
62
8.6 USER CLASS
8.7 FOREIGN ORIGIN OR DESTINATION 62
62
8.8 HUB TYPE
8.9 APPROACH TYPE 63
8.10 GO-AROUND 64
8.11 ABORTED TAKE-OFFS 64
8.12 VISUAL INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 65
AND
8.13 CEILING HEIGHT 65
8.14 FOG 66
67
8.15 VISIBILITY
8.16 RAIN 67
68
8.17 ELECTRIC STORM
68
8.18 FROZEN PRECIPITATION
68
8.19 TEMPERATURE
8.20 ICING CONDITIONS 69
8.21 CROSSWIND 69
70
8.22 SNOW
70
8.23 RUNWAY CONDITION
71
8.24 LIGHT CONDITION
72
8.25 WEIGHT CRITICALITY
72
8.25.1 Maximum
certified weight criticality
74
8.25.2 Maximum
allowable weight criticality
75
8.26 RUNWAY CRITICALITY
77
8.27 VIOLATION MINIMUMS & RESTRICTIONS
OF
77
8.28 SUMMARY FINDINGS
OF
CHAPTER 9 THE NORMAL OPERATIONS DATABASE 79
79
9.1 SOURCES NOD
OF
9.1.1 Flight data data 79
recorder
80
9.1.2 Airport
sources
80
9.1.3 FAA
sources
81
9.2 SAMPLING STRATEGY
9.2.1 Safeguarding for (Step 1) 82
crosswind calculation
83
9.2.2 Stratified
sampling
83
9.2.2.1 Stratification factors (Step 2)
84
9.2.2.2 Extraneous &
empty strata
85
9.2.2.3 Intra-stratum (Step 3& 4)
sampling
86
9.2.2.4 Removing irrelevant NOD (Step 5)
86
for fractions (Step 6)
9.2.2.5 Accounting
sampling
87
9.3 SUPPLEMENTARY NOD (STEP 7)
87
9.3.1 NOAA TD3505 database
88
9.3.2 Weather
parameters
88
9.3.2.1 TD3505
parameters -
88
9.3.2.2 Crosswind
88
9.3.2.3 Light
condition
89
9.4 COMPATIBILITY ACCIDENT DATABASE
WITH
90
9.5 ADVANCES ACHIEVED
CHAPTER 10 BIVARIATE ANALYSIS QUANTIFICATION OF RISK FACTOR
-
91
CRITICALITY
91
10.1 FACTORS ANALYSED
91
10.1.1 Prerequisites
91
10.1.2 Factors
not analysed
91
10.1.2.1 Runway &
weight criticality
92
10.1.2.2 Runway
state
92
10.1.2.3 Human factors
93
10.2 DATA PREPARATION
10.3 STRUCTURE OF ANALYSIS 94
10.4 COMPARISON OF MEAN EXPOSURE 94
95
10.4.1 Chi-square
analysis results
98
10.4.2 T-test
results
100
ACCIDENT INVOLVEMENT RATIO (RAIR)
10.5 RELATIVE
10.5.1 Ceiling height 101
102
10.5.2 Visibility
104
10.5.3 Temperature
105
10.5.4 Crosswind
106
10.5.5 Equipment
class
107
10.5.6 User
class
108
10.6 BIVARIATE LOGISTIC REGRESSION
108
10.61 Assumptions
check
109
10.6 2 Statistically factors
significant risk
10.6.3 Effect factors 111
size of risk
10.7 SUMMARY FINDINGS
OF
118
CHAPTER 11 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS ACCIDENT FREQUENCY MODELLING 120
-
11.1 NEED MULTIVARIATE MODELS
FOR 120
11.2 CHOICE LOGISTIC REGRESSION
OF 121
11.3 ASSUMPTIONS CHECK
122
11.4 LOGISTIC REGRESSION SETUP & RESULTS
123
11.5 ACCIDENT FREQUENCY MODELS
123
11.6 ASSESSING GOODNESS-OF-FIT
126
11.6.1 Nagelkerke R2
126
11.6.2 Receiver
127
operating characteristics curve
11.6.3
131
c statistic
11.7 COMPARISON WITH TRADITIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS 133
11.8 SUMMARY FINDINGS
OF 134
CHAPTER 12 ACCIDENT LOCATION ANALYSIS
136
12.1 LOCATION COORDINATE SYSTEM
136
12.2 POINT FIRST IMPACT
OF 137
12.3 CRASH SCENARIOS
137
12.3.1 Scenario 1- landing
137
overrun
12.3.2 Scenario 2- landing
138
undershoot
12.3.3 Scenario 3-
take-of 138
overrun
12.3.4 Scenario 4- take-off 139
crash after
12.3.5 Scenario 5- landing (beyond 139
undershoot runway end)
12.3.6 Scenario 6- take-off (before threshold) 139
crash after start-of-roll
12.4 COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 140
12.4.1 CCPD 1x distance 140
scenario
12.4.2 CCPD 2x distance 141
scenario
12.4.3 CCPD 3x distance 142
scenario
12.4.4 CCPD 4x distance 143
scenario
12.4.5 CCPD 5x distance 144
scenario
12.4.6 CCPD 6x distance 145
scenario
12.4.7 CCPD landing distance 145
overrun y
12.4.8 CCPD landing distance 146
undershoot y
12.4.9 CCPD take-off distance 147
overrun y
12.4.10 CCPD distance 148
take-off
crash after y
12.5 CCPD EQUATIONS 149
12.6 NORMALISATION 151
OF ACCIDENT LOCATIONS
CHAPTER 13 MODEL APPLICATION & CASE STUDIES 152
13.1 COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS 152
13.2 CASE STUDY AIRPORTS
152
13.3 MODEL APPLICATION DEMONSTRATION LENGTH 153
-ASA
13.3.1 Identification (step 1) 154
of relevant crash scenarios
13.3.2 Calculation (Step 2-4) 154
of crash scenario probabilities
13.3.3 Basic CCFD (Step 5)
156
13.3.4 Runway CCFD (Step 6& 7) 157
movement
13.4 MODEL APPLICATION DEMONSTRATION
ASA WIDTH 159
-
13.4.1 Identification 159
of relevant crash scenarios
13.4.2 Calculation
159
of crash scenario probabilities
13.4.3 Basic CCFD
160
13.4.4 Runway CCFD
161
movement
13.5 SETTING SIZE ASAs
THE OF 162
13.5.1 Target level
of safety 162
13.5.2 ASA lengths (Step 8)
162
13.5.3 ASA
166
widths
13.5.4 ASA diagrams
167
13.5.5 Impact traffic level (Step 9-12) 171
of
13.6 SETTING THE SIZE OF ASAS USING NORMALISED CCPDS 174