Table Of ContentMaster
The
Swing
Trader
Toolkit
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Master
The
Swing
Trader
Toolkit
The Market Survival Guide
A lAn S . F Ar l e y
New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London
Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan
Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto
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For Donna
Wife, Mother, and Truth Serum
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C o n t e n t s
Foreword xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix
PART ONE
PARsiNg ThE MOdERN MARkETs
Chapter 1
Prospering in the Postcrash Environment 3
The Paradox 4
The Diabolical Market 7
Twenty-First-Century Inefficiencies 10
The Survivalist Trader 13
Defining Your Trading Edge 15
Chapter 2
The Crooked Playing Field 23
Index Futures 25
Program Trading 29
Program Trading: Observations and Strategies 31
Action-Reaction-Resolution 37
Working with Cross-Market Influences 40
Trading versus Technical Analysis 43
The Real World: Awakening to Insanity 44
vii
viii Contents
PART TWO
CYCLEs, shOCks, ANd sEAsONALiTY
Chapter 3
Revisiting the Market Clock 51
Trend Relativity 53
The Electronic Trading Day 54
Calendar Perils 58
Options Expiration 62
Earnings Season 66
Aggressive-Defense Cycles 70
Shock Spirals 72
Chapter 4
Relative strength 75
Three Relative Strength Tools 77
Reading the Buy-Sell Swing 82
Identifying Reversals and Counterswings 85
Ideal Time versus Ideal Price 86
The Real World: Reading between the Lines 90
PART ThREE
REdisCOvERiNg PROFiTAbiLiTY
Chapter 5
The Nature of Winning 97
Positive Expectancy 99
The Survivalist Trading Plan 101
Yo-Yos 107
Long-Term Profitability 110
The Real Bottom Line 112
Contents ix
Chapter 6
survivalist Trading strategies 115
Swing Analysis 117
Convergence-Divergence 123
Defensive Short Selling 126
50-Day Moving Average Strategies 132
Volume 136
Fibonacci Plays 139
Countermarket Plays 142
First Hour Range Breaks 147
Bilateral Entry 148
The Real World: Paranoia and Prosperity 151
PART FOUR
MANAgiNg OPPORTUNiTY
Chapter 7
Market Entry 159
Margin and Capitalization 161
Anticipation versus Reaction 165
Pulling the Trigger 168
Chapter 8
Positions, Markets, and Trading styles 171
Subdividing the Stock Universe 173
Exchange-Traded Funds 177
Position Choice 179
Sizing, Scaling, and Exposure 183
Baskets 188
Survivalist Holding Periods 191
