The Janus Factor: Trend Follower's Guide to Market Dialectics

178 Pages·2012·5.43 MB·English

by  Gary Edwin Anderson

Contents
The Janus Factor
Introduction
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1: Foundations
Serendipity
The Data Set
Reasons and Causes
Befuddled
Which Way Is Up?
Notes
Chapter 2: The Assignment
Measuring Risk: Offense and Defense
Picturing Offense and Defense
The Benchmark Equivalence Line (BEL)
The Trend of Relative Performance
Notes
Chapter 3: Feedback and Capital Flow
Feedback
Feedback and Capital Flow
Calculating Relative Strength
The Relative Strength Spread
Trend Followers and Contrarians
Notes
Chapter 4: The Janus Factor
Structure and Entropy
Confidence
Is the Market Predictable?
Balancing Acts and Paradigm Shifts
Notes
Chapter 5: Seasons of Success
The Venturi Effect
The Relative Strength Spread and the Performance Spread
Group Studies
Notes
Chapter 6: Why Jesse Went Broke
The Cotton King
1911–1914
The Final Years
Notes
Chapter 7: Sheep Dogs and Other Contrarians
The Sheep Dog Effect
A Contrarian Hedge?
The Contrarian Rebound
The Contrarian Collapse
Notes
Chapter 8: Situational Awareness
Bielema’s Choice
The Bet
Let Us Calculate!
Notes
Chapter 9: The Direction of Momentum
Relative Momentum
Relative Momentum versus Relative Strength
Notes
Chapter 10: Long Strategies
The Critical Moving Average
The DOM Strategy
Contrarian Threats
A Defensive Long Strategy
It’s a Bull Market, You Know
Notes
Chapter 11: The Complete Strategy
Combined Long and Short Strategies
The Model Portfolio
Execution
Notes
Appendix
About the Author
Index
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Cover Design: C. Wallace
Cover Images: Roman Coin © Claudiodivizia/Dreamstime.com, Golden
Background © Vizualbyte/iStockphoto Copyright © 2012 by Gary Edwin
Anderson. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Anderson, Gary Edwin,
1942-The Janus factor : trend follower’s guide to market dialectics / Gary Edwin
Anderson.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-118-08707-7 (cloth); ISBN 978-1-118-23600-0 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-
118-26169-9 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-22348-2 (ebk) 1. Speculation. 2.
Investment analysis. 3. Investments. I. Title.
HG6015.A526 1012
332.64—dc23
2012030690
For
Carol Anne
The Janus Factor
Ja’nus: Early Roman god of gates and portals, suggesting the two sides of a
door. Represented by two opposing faces, Janus symbolizes the two-sided nature
of things.