The International Antarctic Weather Forecasting Handbook

707 Pages·2001·17.02 MB·English

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The International
Antarctic Weather Forecasting
Handbook

Editors:

John Turner
Physical Sciences Division
British Antarctic Survey

Stephen Pendlebury
Regional Forecasting Centre, Hobart
Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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CONTENTS

FOREWORD........................................................................................................................................vii
DISCLAIMER.......................................................................................................................................ix
EDITORIAL REQUEST FOR FEEDBACK......................................................................................ix
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS and DEDICATION.................................................................................x
A HINT TO NAVIGATING THIS HANDBOOK.............................................................................xii
1 INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................1
2 AN OVERVIEW OF THE METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY OF THE
ANTARCTIC..........................................................................................................................................4
2.1 THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE ANTARCTIC................................................................4
2.1.1 The polar cell in the three cell structure of the Earth’s atmosphere..................................4
2.1.2 Radiation and heat balances..............................................................................................4
2.1.3 Orography.........................................................................................................................5
2.2 THE OCEAN AREAS................................................................................................................7
2.2.1 The surface ocean circulation pattern...............................................................................7
2.2.2 The sea ice and its annual changes...................................................................................8
2.3 THE ROLE OF THE ANTARCTIC IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM.......................................10
2.3.1 The heat balance.............................................................................................................11
2.3.2 The moisture and water balance.....................................................................................11
2.4 SYNOPTIC–SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE ANTARCTIC...................................................12
2.4.1 Depression occurrence....................................................................................................13
2.4.2 Cyclogenesis...................................................................................................................18
2.4.3 Depression tracks............................................................................................................18
2.4.4 Cyclolysis.......................................................................................................................23
2.4.5 Difference between rates of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis...............................................23
2.4.6 Weather systems over the interior..................................................................................23
2.5 MESOCYCLONES...................................................................................................................30
2.5.1 The general characteristics of mesocyclones..................................................................30
2.5.2 Spatial distribution..........................................................................................................34
2.5.3 Temporal variability.......................................................................................................35
2.6 MEAN VALUES OF THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.................................................36
2.6.1 Pressure at Mean Sea Level............................................................................................36
2.6.2 The upper–air height field..............................................................................................36
2.6.3 Surface air temperature...................................................................................................39
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2.6.4 The continental surface temperature inversion...............................................................43
2.6.5 Cloud, white–out and surface and horizon definition.....................................................44
2.6.6 Precipitation/Accumulation............................................................................................47
2.6.7 The wind field.................................................................................................................48
2.6.8 Visibility including blizzards/blowing snow..................................................................51
2.7 RECENT CHANGE IN THE ANTARCTIC...................................................................................52
2.7.1 Trends in the surface observations..................................................................................52
2.7.2 Ozone over Antarctica....................................................................................................54
2.7.3 Recent changes to Antarctic ice shelves.........................................................................58
2.8 SOME ASPECTS OF ANTARCTIC ICE.......................................................................................66
2.8.1 Ice terminology and classification..................................................................................66
2.8.2 Freezing of sea water......................................................................................................69
2.8.3 Formation and dissipation of sea ice...............................................................................69
2.8.4 Ice Drift..........................................................................................................................70
2.8.5 Icebreakers......................................................................................................................70
2.8.6 Sea ice information services...........................................................................................72
3 THE FORECASTING REQUIREMENT................................................................................75
3.1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................75
3.2 OVERVIEW OF GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL AND FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS.................75
3.3 METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES...............................................................................................76
3.3.1 Environmental Conditions and Climatological Study.....................................................76
3.3.2 Forecasting facilities.......................................................................................................77
3.3.3 Forecast services.............................................................................................................78
3.4 FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS FOR AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS.................................................80
3.4.1 Intercontinental operations.............................................................................................80
3.4.2 Aircraft requirements with the Antarctic........................................................................81
3.5 FORECASTING REQUIREMENTS FOR MARINE, STATION/FIELD AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES....84
3.5.1 Forecasting requirements for marine activities in Antarctic...........................................84
3.5.2 Forecasting requirements for station/field and research activities in Antarctica............86
4 DATA AVAILABILITY AND CHARACTERISTICS...........................................................87
4.1 IN SITU OBSERVATIONS.........................................................................................................87
4.1.1 Conventional reporting stations......................................................................................87
4.1.2 Automatic Weather Stations...........................................................................................88
4.1.3 Drifting Buoys................................................................................................................92
4.2 NWP MODEL FIELDS...........................................................................................................99
4.2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................99
4.2.2 Components of an NWP system...................................................................................100
4.2.3 Use of primary model output variables.........................................................................101
4.2.4 Use of conceptual models.............................................................................................105
4.2.5 Use of independent data – assessing whether the model is “on track”.........................105
4.2.6 NWP systems and the Antarctic...................................................................................107
4.3 SATELLITE DATA................................................................................................................107
4.3.1 Visible and infra–red satellite imagery.........................................................................107
4.3.2 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery................................................................................112
4.3.3 Antarctic Composite Satellite Images...........................................................................112
4.3.4 Scatterometer winds......................................................................................................114
4.3.5 Passive microwave products.........................................................................................122
4.3.6 Temperature sounding instruments...............................................................................124
4.3.7 Some aspects of future satellite systems.......................................................................130
5 ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.....................................................................................................136
5.1 ANALYSIS AND DIAGNOSIS FUNDAMENTALS......................................................................136
5.1.1 Overview......................................................................................................................136
5.1.2 Basic observations........................................................................................................137
5.1.3 Mean sea level pressure analysis and satellite data.......................................................137
5.1.4 Upper–air analysis........................................................................................................138
5.1.5 Meteograms or time series............................................................................................138
5.1.6 Quantitative values.......................................................................................................138
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5.2 MORE ON CONVENTIONAL SURFACE AND FRONTAL ANALYSIS...........................................140
5.2.1 Fronts near the Antarctic continent...............................................................................140
5.2.2 Conventional analysis over the oceans.........................................................................140
5.3 ADDITIONAL AIDS TO ANALYSIS OVER THE OCEAN.............................................................141
5.3.1 Techniques for estimating MSLP.................................................................................142
5.3.2 Techniques for upper–air analysis................................................................................144
5.4 ANALYSIS OVER THE INTERIOR...........................................................................................146
5.4.1 Streamline analysis.......................................................................................................148
5.4.2 Use of model sigma surface data..................................................................................149
5.4.3 Estimating 500–hPa or 700–hPa geopotential heights from AWS observations..........150
6 THE FORECASTING PROCESS...........................................................................................156
6.1 THE SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO FORECASTING..................................................................156
6.1.1 Getting to know the physical environment of the area for which forecasts are being
prepared 156
6.1.2 Getting to know an area's climatology..........................................................................157
6.1.3 Major steps in short–term forecasting...........................................................................158
6.2 THE FORECAST FUNNEL.....................................................................................................166
6.3 LONG WAVES.....................................................................................................................167
6.3.1 Some general concepts.................................................................................................167
6.3.2 Some specific examples of long waves in the Antarctic context..................................168
6.4 SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS............................................................................173
6.4.1 Forecasting strategies....................................................................................................173
6.5 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS, IN PARTICULAR MESOCYCLONES....................................................175
6.5.1 Some general concepts.................................................................................................175
6.5.2 Mesocyclones...............................................................................................................176
6.6 FORECASTING THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.....................................................180
6.6.1 Surface wind.................................................................................................................180
6.6.2 Upper level winds.........................................................................................................195
6.6.3 Clouds...........................................................................................................................196
6.6.4 Visibility and fog..........................................................................................................201
6.6.5 Surface contrast............................................................................................................208
6.6.6 Horizontal definition.....................................................................................................209
6.6.7 Precipitation..................................................................................................................209
6.6.8 Temperature and windchill factor.................................................................................210
6.6.9 Aircraft icing.................................................................................................................211
6.6.10 Turbulence...............................................................................................................214
6.6.11 Sea ice......................................................................................................................221
6.6.12 Waves and swell......................................................................................................222
6.6.13 Hydraulic jumps (Loewe's phenomena)...................................................................226
7 FORECASTING AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS....................................................................232
7.1 THE SCOPE OF THIS CHAPTER..............................................................................................232
7.2 REPRESENTATIVE SUB–ANTARCTIC ISLANDS.....................................................................232
7.2.1 The Falkland Islands.....................................................................................................232
7.2.2 South Georgia...............................................................................................................238
7.2.3 Gough Island.................................................................................................................242
7.2.4 Bouvetoya.....................................................................................................................245
7.2.5 Marion Island................................................................................................................246
7.2.6 Crozet Islands...............................................................................................................249
7.2.7 Kerguelen Islands.........................................................................................................252
7.2.8 Heard and McDonald Islands.......................................................................................255
7.2.9 Macquarie Island..........................................................................................................260
7.3 ANTARCTIC PENINSULA SECTOR........................................................................................265
7.3.1 Signy Island and Laurie Island , South Orkney Islands................................................268
7.3.2 King George Island, South Shetland Islands................................................................272
7.3.3 Greenwich, Robert and Media Luna Islands, South Shetland Islands..........................281
7.3.4 Deception Island, South Shetland Islands.....................................................................284
7.3.5 Trinity Peninsula...........................................................................................................287
7.3.6 The West–Central Section of the Peninsula..................................................................293
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7.3.7 Marguerite Bay/Adelaide Island...................................................................................298
7.3.8 Fossil Bluff, King George VI Sound............................................................................306
7.3.9 Ski Hi/Ski Blu...............................................................................................................310
7.3.10 The Larsen Ice Shelf................................................................................................314
7.4 RONNE AND FILCHNER ICE SHELVES..................................................................................317
7.4.1 Berkner Island...............................................................................................................318
7.4.2 Shelf Depot...................................................................................................................322
7.4.3 Haag Nunataks..............................................................................................................324
7.5 COATS LAND AND DRONNING MAUD LAND.......................................................................327
7.5.1 Belgrano II Station........................................................................................................327
7.5.2 Halley Station...............................................................................................................331
7.5.3 Aboa and Wasa Bases...................................................................................................335
7.5.4 Atka Bay– Neumayer Station– Cape Norwegia...........................................................337
7.5.5 SANAE Station.............................................................................................................344
7.5.6 Troll and Tor Stations...................................................................................................349
7.5.7 Maitri and Dakshin Gangotri........................................................................................351
7.5.8 Novolazarevskaya.........................................................................................................360
7.5.9 Inland of Syowa (Asuka, Mizuho, Dome Fuji).............................................................365
7.5.10 Syowa Station..........................................................................................................369
7.6 ENDERBY LAND AND KEMP LAND.....................................................................................374
7.6.1 Molodezhnaya..............................................................................................................375
7.6.2 Mt King........................................................................................................................383
7.7 MACROBERTSON LAND.....................................................................................................388
7.7.1 Mawson........................................................................................................................388
7.7.2 Prince Charles Mountains (Soyuz)...............................................................................394
7.8 PRINCESS ELIZABETH LAND AND WILHELM II LAND.........................................................399
7.8.1 The Larsemann Hills and Law Base.............................................................................400
7.8.2 Progress Station and Druzhnaya–4 Base......................................................................404
7.8.3 Zhongshan....................................................................................................................407
7.8.4 Davis.............................................................................................................................413
7.9 QUEEN MARY LAND..........................................................................................................418
7.9.1 Mirny............................................................................................................................419
7.9.2 Edgworth David (Bunger Hills)....................................................................................425
7.10 WILKES LAND....................................................................................................................431
7.10.1 Casey Station including Law Dome Summit...........................................................432
7.10.2 Vostok Station..........................................................................................................441
7.10.3 Concordia (Dome C) Station....................................................................................447
7.11 TERRE ADÉLIE LAND AND GEORGE V LAND.....................................................................451
7.11.1 Dumont d'Urville.....................................................................................................451
7.11.2 Port Martin, Commonwealth and Cape Denison.....................................................457
7.12 OATES LAND, VICTORIA LAND, THE TRANSANTARCTIC MOUNTAINS, THE ROSS ICE SHELF,
AND THE SOUTH POLE AREA.............................................................................................................461
7.12.1 Leningradskaya Station............................................................................................462
7.12.2 Terra Nova Bay Station...........................................................................................469
7.12.3 McMurdo Station.....................................................................................................484
7.12.4 Transantarctic Mountains.........................................................................................491
7.12.5 Amundsen–Scott (South Pole) Station.....................................................................495
7.12.6 Ross Ice Shelf camps...............................................................................................501
7.13 EDWARD VII LAND, MARIE BYRD LAND, AND ELLSWORTH LAND...................................505
7.13.1 Russkaya Station......................................................................................................506
7.13.2 Byrd Station.............................................................................................................510
7.13.3 The Patriot Hills – Teniente Parodi..........................................................................514
8 REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................518
APPENDIX 1 TABLES OF METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND AWS.....................539
APPENDIX 2. CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (Tables and Figures) FOR VARIOUS
LOCATIONS IN THE ANTARCTIC..............................................................................................560
TRANSVAAL BAY, GOUGH ISLAND (REFER SECTION 7.2.3 ABOVE)..................................................560
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CROZET ISLANDS (REFER SECTION 7.2.6 ABOVE).............................................................................562
KERGUELEN ISLANDS (REFER SECTION 7.2.7 ABOVE)......................................................................563
HEARD ISLAND (REFER SECTION 7.2.8 ABOVE )...............................................................................564
MACQUARIE ISLAND (REFER SECTION 7.2.9 ABOVE)........................................................................565
GREAT WALL STATION (REFER SECTION 7.3.2 ABOVE)....................................................................566
MARAMBIO (REFER SECTION 7.3.5 ABOVE)......................................................................................579
ATKA BAY– NEUMAYER– CAPE NORWEGIA (REFER SECTION 7.5.4 ABOVE)...................................580
SANAE (REFER SECTION 7.5.5 ABOVE)...........................................................................................582
MAITRI AND DAKSHIN GANGOTRI (REFER SECTION 7.5.7 ABOVE)...................................................584
INLAND OF SYOWA (ASUKA, MIZUHO, DOME FUJI) (REFER SECTION 7.5.9 ABOVE)........................589
SYOWA (REFER SECTION 7.5.10 ABOVE)..........................................................................................590
MOUNT KING (REFER SECTION 7.6.2 ABOVE)...................................................................................591
MAWSON (REFER SECTION 7.7.1 ABOVE).........................................................................................592
LAW BASE (REFER SECTION 7.8.1 ABOVE).......................................................................................597
ZHONGSHAN (REFER SECTION 7.8.3 ABOVE )...................................................................................598
DAVIS (REFER SECTION 7.8.4 ABOVE ).............................................................................................609
EDGWORTH DAVID (BUNGER HILLS) (REFER SECTION 7.9.2 ABOVE................................................613
CASEY (REFER SECTION 7.10.1 ABOVE)............................................................................................614
CONCORDIA (DOME C) (REFER SECTION 7.10.3 ABOVE)..................................................................620
DUMONT D'URVILLE (REFER SECTION 7.11.1 ABOVE)......................................................................621
TERRA NOVA BAY (REFER SECTION 7.12.2 ABOVE).........................................................................624
TERRA NOVA BAY (REFER SECTION 7.12.2 ABOVE).........................................................................624
MCMURDO (REFER SECTION 7.12.3ABOVE).....................................................................................636
BYRD STATION (REFER SECTION 7.13.2 ABOVE)..............................................................................637
APPENDIX 3: ANTARCTIC "REPRESENTATIVE" ATMOSPHERES...........................639
APPENDIX 4: A SUGGESTED TRAINING PROGRAMME FOR ANTARCTIC
WEATHER FORECASTERS...........................................................................................................666
TRAINING PROGRAMME MAP...........................................................................................................666
TRAINING OUTCOMES......................................................................................................................667
APPENDIX 5 DETAILED LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS.........................................................689
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FOREWORD

The highly successful International Geophysical Year of 1957–58 gave rise to the formulation
of the Antarctic Treaty in 1959 and its ratification in 1961. The Treaty was given considerable
impetus for the investigation of major scientific problems in Antarctica and encouraged
cooperation between nations. The Antarctic Treaty is unique in the field of international
relations in that it guarantees freedom of scientific research and exchange of data.
The Antarctic continent and its surrounding Southern Ocean, south of the Antarctic
convergence, are probably the least known regions of the world. There are 44 stations
operated by 18 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) nations. Technology has
developed at such a rapid pace that a new standard of meteorological services in Antarctica
can be specified. Representation of Antarctica in global numerical weather prediction models
has improved; remote sensing of atmospheric variables and sea ice from polar orbiting
satellites has become more sophisticated.
Weather forecasting is one of those rare activities that unite nations in a common
endeavour from which people worldwide benefit daily. Most of the SCAR stations provide
routine coded surface synoptic weather reports to the Global Telecommunications System
operated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In addition, there are 70
Automatic Weather Stations separate from the staffed stations that provide extensions to the
surface weather–reporting network. Fourteen of the staffed stations are also providing upper–
air soundings of meteorological variables with vertical profiles from the surface to altitudes of
frequently around 25 km and occasionally 35 km (the lower stratosphere). Through weather
satellites and the combined efforts of nations, we can track the forces that control our weather
and forecast their behaviour up to a week or more ahead.
Despite the hostile conditions and the problem of logistics, the Antarctic Basic Synoptic
Network is well implemented. The percentage of Antarctic reports received at the main
centres of WMO’s telecommunication network is close to the global average. Weather
observations reported in real time are archived in the climate database. Most of the staffed
surface observation stations in Antarctica are included in the upper–air and surface networks
of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). They provide a significant contribution to
GCOS data sets.
Substantial meteorological activity is required to support human operations in the
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The surface weather observing and upper–air–sounding
networks organized by WMO are examples of scientific work of practical and economic
importance. The consequential historical data bank is fundamental to our understanding of
contemporary processes of global relevance such as ozone depletion, atmospheric pollution,
climate change, melting of ice shelves and glaciers, sea level rise, all require Antarctic data to
ensure true global perspective.

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This handbook looks at Antarctic weather from the perspective of one of the most
challenging sciences as well as the application of meteorology in providing operational
weather services in Antarctica to support national Antarctic research programs. It should
provide a valuable reference book for operational meteorologists and students of atmospheric
science. If subject to continuous review and improvement, it could be long lived. The main
contributions of in kind support came from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and British
Antarctic Survey. However, the great scope and substance of the publication depends on the
quality of input material from 15 nations. The contents clearly indicate that wholehearted
effort went into gaining the knowledge in the first place and then synthesizing it into a clear
account. The meteorological expertise and English expression of the editors John Turner
(British Antarctic Survey) and Steve Pendlebury (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) were
vital to its success. Acknowledgment is made of the national contributions that were arranged
through the national representatives who are Members of the WMO Executive Council
Working Group on Antarctic Meteorology. Dr John Zillman, Director of Meteorology,
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and President of WMO, encouraged participation in the
development of this quality publication, which makes is a significant contribution to our
understanding of Antarctic Meteorology.

Hugh A. Hutchinson
Chairman, Working Group on Antarctic Meteorology
WMO Executive Council
4 July 2000

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