Table Of ContentLecture Notes in Earth Sciences 74
Editors:
S. Bhattacharji, Brooklyn
G. M Friedman, Brooklyn and Troy
H. J. Neugebauer, Bonn
A. Seilacher, Tuebingen and Yale
Martin Beniston John L. Innes (Eds.)
The Impacts of
Climate Variability
on Forests
With 144 Figures and 37 Tables
regnirpS
Editors
Professor Martin Beniston
Umversity of Fribourg, Institute of Geography
Pdrolles, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland
Dr. John L. Innes
Swiss Federal Institue for Forest. Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
"For all Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences published till now please see final pages of
the book"
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Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
The impacts of climate variability of forests : with 37 tables /
Martin Beniston ; John L. Innes (ed.). - Berlin ; Heidelberg ; New
York ; Barcelona ; Budapest ; Hong Kong ; London ; Milan ; Paris ;
Singapore ; Tokyo : Springer, 1998
(Lecture notes in earth sciences ; 74)
ISBN 3-540-64681-7
ISSN 0930-0317
ISBN 3-540-64681-7 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
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We would like to convey our appreciation to all the contributing authors for their
dedication and effort which has led to this book. We would also like to thank the
reviewers for generously giving their time.
The financial support of the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and
Landscape and the Swiss National Science Foundation is gratefully
acknowledged. This funding enabled several contributors to attend the Workshop
on Past, Present and Future Climatic Variability and Extremes : The Impacts on
Forests, which was held in September 1997 in Wengen (Bernese Alps,
Switzerland). The papers which appear in this book are based on material
presented at the Wengen-97 Workshop.
We would also like to give special thanks to Ms. Sylvie Bovel-Yerly who
finalized the manuscripts in their camera-ready form, in an efficient and timely
manner.
Foreword: research on the impacts
of climate change and policy making
Richard Volz
The Framework Convention on Climate Change contains commitments for
countries not only to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to promote and
cooperate in research on the climate system, on assessing the impacts of climate
change, and on preparing to adapt to climate change. At the second Ministerial
Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, which was held in June 1993
in Helsinki, Finland, European countries made four resolutions, as a joint response
to many of the forest decisions taken in the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Helsinki Resolution
4 (H4) "Strategies for a Process of Long-term Adaptation of Forests in Europe to
Climate Change" (Ministerial Conference 1993) deals with the effects of climate
change on forests and reinforces the importance of this issue.
In addition to international decisions, we also have national legal obligations
preserve the forest and protect the population, buildings and installations against
natural hazards. We need to know how to react, although it is uncertain how the
risks will change and what measures will be necessary or appropriate in the future.
Swiss forestry strategy emphasises conservation and biodiversity. We may wonder
whether this is sufficient for adapting to climate change or whether we should
advise the planting of trees suitable for a warmer climate. We are dependent on
research to provide answers to such questions. However, the outcome of a meeting
between scientists and representatives of the Agency for the Environment, Forests
and Landscape was that we will only receive answers if we ask clear questions. As
a first step, we have therefore prepared a paper detailing our questions on some
selected topics such as "forests and forestry", "water fluxes and natural hazards"
and "nature protection" (Volz et al. 1998).
An important role of the administration is to prepare decisions for politicians
and afterwards to ensure that these decisions are implemented. Politicians feel that
a prosperous economy is their responsibility and short-term decisions are therefore
often taken over the economy. Long-term factors such as climate change are
hardly taken into account when making economic decisions. In the tourist industry
for instance, planning never extends more than ten years ahead. This short-term
mentality influences policy. Consequently, government is often forced to act
within a short time-scale and under pressure. Anything which seems to be urgent
is taken more seriously than factors which should be long-term priorities fbr
sustainability (Conseil du dtveloppement durable 1997). As a result, it is all the
more important that the research community focuses attention on the long-term
issue of climate change, which is affecting or will affect economy and society. It is
also important that the results of this research are clearly communicated.
The complexity of the climate change process, and the difficulty in identifying
specific cause-effect relationships, make climate change a difficult task in the
viii Foreword
political context, especially in relation to its potential impacts, as the effects of
climate interact with many other environmental factors. Searching for and
preparing a system for monitoring the forests, we thought that phenological
observations should be a good indicator for the effects of global warming on trees.
A study of phenological data collected by the Bern cantonal forestry service
showed (as might be expected) that leaf break of deciduous trees now occurs
earlier in the spring than it did during the nineteenth century (Vasella 1997). This
cannot simply be explained by warmer spring temperatures, the most determining
factor for this phenophase, as there has been no change in the needle flushing of
Picea abies. Phenological observations are not very precise, which raises the
question of whether the change could merely be the result of altered observation
practices. Earlier leaf break indicates an earlier start of photosynthetic activity,
which coincides with a general increase in increment of Fagus sylvatica
(BRA.KER 1996). The growth increase of Picea abies seems however to be less
distinct, which indicates differences between deciduous trees and conifers. We
concluded that phenology is a useful indicator in a forest monitoring system, but
that alterations which were expected to be an effect of climate may also be
attributable to other causes. This makes it very difficult to establish convincing
indicators for the impact of climate change and without impacts climate change
itself would have no political significance, Therefore, we have to show clear
indications of climate change impact to convince politicians and the population, or
they will not accept any measures. This is a great challenge and efficient
cooperation will be crucial.
References
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ssiwS ycnegA for eht ,tnemnorivnE stseroF dna ,epacsdnaL pp ;nreB 13
lairetsiniM ecnerefnoC no eht noitcetorP of Forests ni Europe, 71-61 June 3991 ni :iknisleH
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Preface
Martin Beniston
The Wengen Workshops on Global Change Research take place on an annual
basis in the mountain resort of Wengen in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland. These
workshop series were intiated in 1995, and are under the responsibiltiy of the
Department of Geography of the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Each year, a
theme of interest to the global change community is identified; the Workshops are
then organized jointly with other specialized scientific institutions. The ultimate
objective of the Wengen Workshop series is to provide a scientific forum which is
at the leading edge of interdisciplinary science.
In the context of the 1997 Wengen Workshop, which took place in September
1997, the selected topic was Past, Present and Future Climatic Variability and
Extremes: ehT Impacts on Forests. The meeting was jointly organized with the
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Avalanche Research in Birmensdorf,
Switzerland.
The rationale for the 1997 meeting focused on the fact that, while the debate
on global climate change has considered primarily mean changes in variables such
as temperature and precipitation, many environmental and socio-economic
systems are at least as sensitive to climatic extremes and variability as to average
climate. Natural ecosystems and forests are one typical example of systems which,
while constrained within certain ranges of mean climate, can undergo rapid and
often irreversible damage in the face of short-lived but intense extreme events.
Based upon these considerations, the Wengen-97 Workshop focused on the
following themes:
• Issues related to past and present variability and extremes from a climatologi-
cal viewpoint, and the shifts which have been observed this century or
reconstructed for a more distant past
• An assessment of recent progress in the simulation of both variability and
extremes in a future, warmer climate, in particular on regional scales
• Observed impacts of the variability of climate and extreme events on forest
growth, species composition, competition between species, forest health and
forest distribution, based on current observations and reconstructions from
dendrochronological, palynological, and other paetoecological proxies
• Assessment of the capability of forest models to simulate forest response to
extreme events, using hypothetical climatological data or a range of plausible
scenarios for climate extremes
The 1997 meeting was truly interdisciplinary, with expertise from scientists
working in climate modelling, climate statistics, forest ecosystem research, forest
modelling, dendrochronology, palynology, and other specialized fields. The
selected papers in this book are a reflection of the scientific discussions which
took place in Wengen.
List of contributors
Tomasso Anfodilio, Universita di Padova, Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro
Forestali, Legnaro, Italia.
Martin Beniston, University of Fribourg, Institute of Geography, Fribourg,
Switzerland.
Silvio Borella, University of Bern, Physics Institute, Bern, Switzerland.
Rudolf Brazdil, Masaryk University, Department of Geography, Brno, Czech
Republic.
Gerd Biirger, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Vinicio Carraro, Universita di Padova, Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro
Forestali, Legnaro, Italia.
Marco Carrer, Universita di Padova, Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro
Forestali, Legnaro, Italia.
Jean Combe, Antenne Romande, FNP For~t - Neige - Paysage, Lausanne,
Switzerland.
Michel D~qu~, M6t6o Nationale, CNRM, Toulouse, France.
Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, M6t6o Nationale, CNRM, Toulouse, France.
Yves Durand, M6t6o Nationale, CNRM, Toulouse, France.
Joe Eastman, Colorado State University, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort
Collins Colorado, USA.
Jean-Louis Edouard, Facult6 des Sciences et Techniques de St. J6r6me, Institut
M6diterran6en d'Ecologeite de Pal6o6cologie, Marseille, France.
Gary Funkhouser, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,
Tucson, USA.
Riidiger Grote, BTU Cottbus, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Cottbus, Germany.
Fr6d6ric Guibal, Facult6 des Sciences et Techniques de .tS J6r6me, Institut
M6diterran6en d'Ecologie et de Pal6o6cologie, Marseille, France.
Joel Guiot, Facult6 des Sciences et Techniques de .tS J6r6me, Institut
M6diterran6en d'Ecologeite de Pal6o6cologie, Marseille, France.
Jarle I. Holten, Terrestrial Ecology Research, Buvika, Norway.
Karl Hi~nninger, Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences,
Vienna, Austria.
Malcolm K. Hughes, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,
Tucson, USA.
John L. Innes, WSL (Swiss Federal Institut for Forest Snow and Landscape),
Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Trudy Kavanagh, University of Western Ontario, Dept. of Geography, London
Ontario, Canada.
iix List of contributors
Thierry Keller, Facult6 des Sciences et Techniques de .tS J6r6me, Institut
M6diterranEen d'Ecologie et de Marseille, PalEoEcologie, France.
Christian KiJrner, Universit~t Basel, Botanisches Institut, Basel, Switzerland.
Petra Laseh, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam
Institute forC limate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Manfred J. Lexer, Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences,
Vienna, Austria.
Marcus Lindner, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Lixin Lu, Colorado State University, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins
Colorado, USA.
Brian H. Luekman, University of Western Ontario, Dept. of Geography, London
Ontario, Canada.
Erie Martin, Centre national de recherches mEt6orologiques, Centre d'6tudes de
la neige, St Martin d'Heres, France.
David L. Peterson, University of Washington, Field Station for Protected Area
Research, Seattle, USA.
Roger A. Pielke, Colorado State University, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort
Collins Colorado, USA.
Martine Rebetez, Antenne Romande, FNP For~t - Neige - Paysage, Lausanne,
Switzerland.
Matthias Saurer, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland.
Fritz H. Sehweingruber, WSL (Swiss Federal Institut for Forest Snow and
Landscape), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Roll' Siegwolf, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland.
Felieitas Suekow, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Lueien Tessier, Facult~ des Sciences et Techniques de St. J6r6me, Institut
MEditerran6en d'Ecologie etd e PalEo6cologie, Marseille, France.
Carlo Urbinati, Universita di Padova, Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro
Forestali, Legnaro, Italia.
Thomas T. Veblen, University of Colorado, Department of Geography, Boulder,
USA.
Pier Luigi Vidale, Colorado State University, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort
Collins Colorado, USA.
Rieardo Villaiba, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia IANIGLA, Mendoza,
Argentina.
Robert L. Walko, Colorado State University, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort
Collins Colorado, USA.
Table of contents
The impact of climatic extremes on forests:
an introduction
John .L lnnes
Meteorological extremes and their impacts on forests 19
in the Czech Republic
Rudolf Brdzdil
Changes in temperature variability in relation to shifts in mean 49
temperatures in the Swiss Alpine region this century
Martine Rebetez and Martin Beniston
Evaluation of the 2xCO2 impact on European climate variability 59
with a variable resolution GCM
Michel Ddqud and Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes
Precipitation and snow cover variability in the French Alps 18
Eric Martin and Yves Durand
6 Influence of forest cover in the Eastern United States 93
on regional climate
Robert .L Walko, Roger A. Pielke, .rS Pier Luigi ,eladiV
Joe Eastman and Lixin Lu
7 Extremes of moisture availability reconstructed from tree rings 99
for recent millennia in the Great Basin of Western North America
Malcohn .K Hughes and Gary Funkhouser
8 Predictive models of tree-growth: preliminary results 109
in the French Alps
Lucien Tessier, Thierry Keller, Joel Jean-Louis Guiot, Edouard
and Guibal Frgd~ric
Documenting the effects of recent climate change at treeline 121
in the Canadian Rockies
Brian .H Luckman and Trudy .A Kavanagh
01 Annual- versus decadal-scale climatic influences on tree 145
establishment and mortality in northern Patagonia
Ricardo Villafba and Thomas .T Veblen
