The Global Economy in the 90s: A User’s Guide

342 Pages·1992·39.73 MB·English

by  Bill Orr (auth.)

The Global Economy
in the 90s
The Global Economy
in the 90s
A User's Guide
Bill Orr
M
MACMILLAN
© New York University 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1992
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First published in Great Britain 1992 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG212XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-13011-5 ISBN 978-1-349-13009-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-13009-2
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library
Book design by Catherine Broucek Orr
To Catherine
whose loving support.
creative contributions.
and hard work
made it happen
Sources
Asian Development Bank
Bank for International Settlements
Deutsche Bank
European Community
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GAIT)
Inter-American Development Bank
International Finance Corporation
International Monetary Fund
Institute of International Finance
J. P. Morgan & Co .. Incorporated
New York Clearing House Association
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Twentieth Century Fund
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Central Intelligence Agency
US Council of Economic Advisers
US Department of Agriculture
US Department of Commerce
US Federal Reserve System
United Nations
World Bank
Contents
Special Terms
Introduction
1 Macro Trends 1
Output
Growth of world output ............................................................. 3
Distribution of OECD output ................................................... .4
Growth of output in OECD economies ..................................... .4
Growth of real output in smaller OECD economies ................... 5
Trade
'!'rends in world exports ............................................................ 6
'!'rends in world imports ............................................................ 6
'!'rends in unit value of exports ................................................. 6
'!'rends in unit value of imports ................................................. 7
'!'rends in terms of trade ........................................................... 7
'!'rends of world trade volumes and prices ................................. 7
Growth of export volumes in developed economies .................... 8
Growth of import volumes in developed economies .................... 9
'!'rends in terms of trade in developed economies ...................... 9
Growth of trade in developed economies ................................. 10
'!'rends in prices of traded commodities ................................... 10
Current-account balances in main OECD economies .............. 11
Current-account balances in smaller OECD economies ........... 12.
Fiscal/monetary
Fiscal balances of 0-7 general governments ............................ 13
Growth of narrow money in 0-7 economies ............................ 13
Growth of broad money in 0-7 economies .............................. 14
Shortterm interest rates .......................................................... 14
Inflation in main OECD economies ......................................... 14
Inflation in smaller OECD economies ...................................... 15
Labor
Growth of productivity in 0-7 economies ................................ 16
Growth of hourly earnings in 0-7 economies .......................... 17
Growth of unit labor costs in 0-7 economies .......................... 18
Unemployment in main OECD economies ............................... 19
Unemployment in smaller OECD economies ........................... 20
vii
Transitioning economies
Growth in transitioning economies ......................................... 21
Economic potential of former Soviet republics ......................... 22
Developing economies
Growth of per-capita GDP in developing economies ................. 23
Growth of GDP in developing economies ................................. 23
Merchandise trade in developing economies ............................ 24
2 Output 25
Growth of gross world product (GWP) ...................................... 25
Outputs of biggest economies ................................................. 26
A spectrum of economies ........................................................ 27
Growth trends of main economies ........................................... 27
1'rends in world outputs ......................................................... 28
Four economic worlds .....................................................•....... 29
Structure of production of selected economies ........................ 29
Geography of production
Gross regional products .......................................................... 31
Western Europe ...................................................................... 31
North America ........................................................................ 32
USSR and Central & Eastern Europe ...................................... 33
Population and Net Material Product of Soviet republics ......... 33
Inter-republic commerce in the USSR ..................................... 34
Latin America ......................................................................... 35
Middle East and North Africa .................................................. 36
East and South Asia ............................................................... 37
Southeast Asia. ....................................................................... 38
Oceana ...................................................................................3 8
Sub-Saharan Africa ................................................................ 39
The developed world
Developed economies .............................................................. 41
Relative per-capita GDP in OECD economies .......................... 42
GDP in OECD economies ........................................................ 43
Structure of production in OECD economies .......................... .43
1'rends in industrial output in main OECD economies ............ 44
Structure of services sector in OECD economies ..................... 45
The transitioning world
1'ransitioning economies ......................................................... 47
The developing world
Developing world's GDP by type of exports ............................. .48
Overview of the developing world ...........................................• 48
High-income developing economies ........................................ .49
Upper-middle income developing economies ............................ 49
Lower-middle income developing economies ............................ 50
Manufacturing output of newly industrializing economies ....... 50
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ........... 51
Industry's share of GDP in Asian developing economies .......... 52
Structure of production in Latin American economies ............. 53
viii Contents
The undeveloped world
Undeveloped economies .......................................................... 54
3 Products 55
Energy products
Primary energy production ...................................................... 57
Coal production ...................................................................... 57
Production of crude oil and natural gas liquids ....................... 58
Crude oil production ............................................................... 59
Natural gas production ........................................................... 60
Hydronuclear energy production ............................................. 60
Crude oil refining capacity ...................................................... 61
Installed electricity-generating capacity. .................................. 62
Installed nuclear-electric generating capacity .......................... 63
Electricity production ............................................................. 64
AgrIculture products
Total grain production ............................................................ 65
Wlleat production ................................................................... 66
Coarse grain production ......................................................... 67
Rice production ...................................................................... 68
Soybean production ................................................................ 69
Sugar production .................................................................... 70
Coffee production ................................................................... 71
Natural rubber production ...................................................... 71
MinlDg products
Iron ore production ................................................................. 72
Bauxite production ................................................................. 73
Pig iron production ................................................................. 74
Metal products
Crude steel production ........................................................... 75
Rolled steel production ........................................................... 76
Refined copper production ...................................................... 77
Primary aluminum production ................................................ 78
Cobalt production ................................................................... 79
Platinum-group metals production. ......................................... 79
Gold production ...................................................................... 80
Manufactured products
Chemical fertilizer production ................................................. 81
Synthetic rubber production ................................................... 81
Synthetic fibers production ..................................................... 82
Passenger automobile production ........................................... 83
Truck and bus production ...................................................... 84
Rubber tire production .......................................................... 85
4 Merchandise Trade 87
Growth of world merchandise trade vs world output ............... 87
Overview of merchanclise trade
Value of world exports ............................................................ 89
Contents Ix
Participation in world trade .................................................... 89
Merchandise trade by development status .............................. 90
Merchandise trade balances of three main economies ............. 90
Merchandise trade balances of G-7 economies ........................· 90
'!'rends in merchandise eJfPorts ............................................... 91
'!'rends in world exports and output ........................................ 91
'!'rends in product trading ....................................................... 91
Manufactures
1'rade in manufactures ....... , ................................................... 92
Top traders in manufactures .................................................. 92
Main traders in manufactures ................................................ 93
MACHINERY AND TRANSPORf EQUIPMENT
World trade in machinery and transport equipment. ............... 94
Distribution of trade in machinery and transport equipment .. 94
Main trade in machinery and transport equipment ................. 94
Main traders in machinery and transport equipment .............. 95
AUTOMOTIVE
Top exporters of automotive products ..................................... 96
Market shares of Japanese passenger cars ............................. 97
CHEMICALS
World trade in chemicals ........................................................ 97
Distribution of trade in chemicals ........................................... 97
Top traders in chemicals ........................................................ 97
HIGH TECHNOWGIES
Top exporters of high-technology products .............................. 99
International competitiveness in high technology .................. 100
World semiconductor market ................................................ 101
Shares of world DRAM market .............................................. 101
EC's main trading partners in high-tech products ................ 101
OECD trade in technology .................................................... 102
TEXTILES & APPAREL
World trade in textiles and apparel ....................................... 103
Distribution of trade in textiles and appareL ........................ 103
'!'rends in textile and apparel imports ................................... 103
Top traders in textiles .......................................................... 104
Top traders in apparel .......................................................... 105
Restricted imports oftextiles and apparel ............................. 106
Economies most dependent on textile exports ....................... 106
IRON & STEEL
World trade in iron and steel ................................................ 106
Distribution of trade in iron and steeL ................................. 106
Top traders in iron and steeL ................................................ 107
Primary products
1'rade in primary products ..................................................... 108
AGRICULTURE
World trade in food ............................................................... 108
Distribution of trade in food .................................................. 108
x Contents
Top traders in food ............................................................... 108
Main developing-economy traders in agrtcultures ................. 109
OECD trade in agrtculture products. ..................................... 110
OECD trade in forest products .............................................. III
Main US trading partners in agrtcultures .............................. III
Gainers and losers in agrtculture trade liberalization ............ III
Agriculture producer subsidies ............................................. 112
FUELS
World trade in fuels .............................................................. 113
Distribution of trade in fuels ................................................. 113
Top traders in fuels ............................................................... 113
RAW MATERIALS
World trade in raw materials ................................................. 114
Distribution of trade in raw materials ................................... 115
Top traders in raw materials ................................................. 115
ORES, MINERALS, AND NONFERROUS METALS
World trade in ores, minerals, and nonferrous metals ........... 116
Distribution of trade in ores, minerals, nonferrous metals ..... 116
Top traders in ores, minerals, and nonferrous metals ........... 116
Tariff and nontariff barriers
'frend in tariffs on manufactures .......................................... 118
Hardcore nontariffbarriers to imports .................................. 118
Potential expansion of trade without tariff, nontariff barriers 119
5 Trade geography 121
Merchandise trade by reglon ................................................. 123
Distribution of world merchandise trade ............................... 123
Origins and destinations of merchandise trade ..................... 123
Composition of trade by region ............................................. 124
Product composition of main trading regions ........................ 124
'frading partners of the world's regions ................................. 125
Merchandise trade of developed economies ........................... 126
Merchandise trade balances. ................................................. 126
Top merchandise traders ...................................................... 126
Current-account balances of main developed economies ....... 128
Dominant trading relationships ............................................ 128
'frading relationships of main developed economies .............. 128
Importance of merchandise trade in developed economies ..... 129
Importance of OECD trade with developing economies .......... 130
Europe
Western Europe's trade by product group ............................. 131
Western Europe's trade with other reglons ............................ 131
West Germany's main trading partners ................................. 132
European Community's main trading partners ..................... 132
Distribution of European Community's merchandise trade ... 133
Western Europe's main product trade with USSR and CEE ... 134
Distribution of EFfA's merchandise exports .......................... 135
Contents xi