The Geography of the Anglo-Jewish Population in the Twenty First Century

332 Pages·2017·10.73 MB·English

The Geography of the Anglo-Jewish
Population in the Twenty First
Century: Characteristics, Spatial
Distribution, Comparisons, and Trends

Thesis submitted in accordance with the
requirements of the University of Liverpool for the
degree of Doctor in Philosophy

by

Philip Sapiro

Department of Geography & Planning
School of Environmental Sciences

December 2016

Acknowledgments
Just over four year have now passed since I first emailed Dr Hill Kulu. With
thoughts of planning for my retirement from a career in transport planning and traffic
engineering, and looking for something to keep my brain active, I was enquiring
about the possibility of carrying out some research in an area that would have
something to do with maps and population data – areas in which I have had an
interest since childhood. To my surprise, rather than being sent away with a flea in
my ear, I was invited to have a chat with Hill and his colleague Dr Paul Williamson.
Apparently my first degree in civil engineering, also from the University of
Liverpool, achieved some forty years previously, together with my master’s degree,
would be sufficient to address any qualification hurdle – that my last formal
involvement with geography had been at the age of 13 would not be an issue. All
that remained was for me to develop a suitable research proposal and bite the bullet!
Several months passed, in which time various possible research topics were
developed and advice sought from other academics. Retirement from work
happened in April 2013, and the PhD adventure started on 1 November of that year.
I did, of course, need to equip myself with some technical skills in the area of
population geography and demography, so during my first eighteen months I took
advantage of the population studies master’s course provided in the department. I
attended virtually the full set of modules needed to complete that course; so my
thanks are due to the module coordinators and deliverers.
Time has flown by and just over three years after starting I’m typing an
acknowledgements section, having just collated a first draft of an entire thesis.
Clearly this would not have been possible without the help and involvement of a
number of special people.
Foremost is my principal supervisor, Dr Paul Williamson. Paul has remained
enthusiastic and encouraging throughout the whole process, particularly guiding me
away from an obsession with playing with the data and writing things up at huge
length, to thinking more about the how and why of what the analysis shows and what
the wider implications of the findings might be (and to write a little more concisely!).
My other supervisors have played their part too – Dr Gemma Catney,
primarily with advice on spatial distribution/segregation and minority groups, and
Professor Hill Kulu on how I might make use of the ONS Longitudinal Study. I
must also thank other staff and students of the Geography and Planning Department
and School of Environmental Sciences, particularly those based on the first floor of
the Roxby Building for their encouragement and camaraderie. I am grateful to
Professors John Stillwell and Chris Lloyd for agreeing to be my examiners.
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Thanks are also due to people involved in providing me with the data used in
the research – staff at ONS customer services, commissioned tables, and
Longitudinal Study teams, and staff at the UK Data Service. Chris Marshall and his
colleagues at the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support
(CeLSIUS) deserve a special mention for their patience!
Insofar as the papers that are included in five of the chapters of this thesis are
concerned, I am most grateful to the editorial staff of the relevant journals, and the
many anonymous reviewers of the papers, for their time and very helpful suggestions
provided during the review process.
The most important person to thank, of course, is my darling wife Diane,
whose own pursuit of a PhD, which she completed in 2012, no doubt had some
influence on my decision to return to university. She has been my greatest supporter
and (insofar as my writing style is concerned) probably my harshest critic! Without
her love, advice, and support (and indeed that of the rest of our family) it would just
not have been possible to undertake the challenge.

Philip Sapiro, December 2016

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Contents
Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 1
Census and other Crown Copyright material ......................................................... 2
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3
1.1 The topic................................................................................................................. 3
1.2 Thesis structure and overview of chapters ............................................................. 4
1.3 Existing analyses of Anglo-Jewry using the 2001 and 2011 censuses .................. 8
1.4 Novel aspects of the current thesis ....................................................................... 10
2. The national census, religion, and principal study sources of data ................. 13
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 13
2.2 The religion question in the 2001 and 2011 censuses .......................................... 13
2.3 Availability of census data ................................................................................... 17
2.4 What has the religion question actually measured? ............................................. 20
2.5 Summary .............................................................................................................. 26
3. Background context ............................................................................................. 27
3.1 A history of Jewish settlement in Britain ............................................................. 27
3.2 Non-census based Jewish demographic and population studies in the UK ......... 37
3.3 Other small population groups ............................................................................. 43
3.4 Discussion and conclusions ................................................................................. 49
4. Over-arching issues .............................................................................................. 51
4.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 51
4.2 Theories of spatial distribution and dispersal....................................................... 53
4.3 Measuring congregation and dispersal ................................................................. 57
4.4 Theories of migration ........................................................................................... 61
4.5 Classification techniques and geodemographics .................................................. 66
4.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 72
5. Beyond the strictly orthodox / mainstream divide: applying geodemographic
analysis to a small nationwide sub-population ...................................................... 73
Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 74
5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 74
5.2 Classification techniques and previous census analyses ...................................... 76
5.3 Technical challenges ............................................................................................ 77
5.4 Development of the study classification methodology ........................................ 78
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5.5 Development of analysis units (cases) ................................................................. 78
5.6 Identification of analysis group characteristics (variables) .................................. 82
5.7 Implementing the classification process .............................................................. 83
5.8 Analysis of the classification system ................................................................... 89
5.9 Discussion and conclusions .................................................................................. 98
6. Heterogeneity and spatial distribution of small groups – looking beyond
indices of distribution............................................................................................. 103
Abstract .................................................................................................................... 103
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 104
6.2 Aims of this paper .............................................................................................. 104
6.3 Theoretical background ...................................................................................... 105
6.4 Measuring spatial distribution ............................................................................ 106
6.5 Spatial distribution of minority groups and the 2011 census ............................. 107
6.6 This paper’s approach ........................................................................................ 108
6.7 Application of the Index of Dissimilarity and scale ........................................... 109
6.8 Overview of the four cultural groups ................................................................. 110
6.9 Group spatial distribution in 2011 and change from 2001 to 2011 .................... 118
6.10 Discussion and conclusions .............................................................................. 127
7. Understanding recent internal migration of small cultural groups in England
and Wales ................................................................................................................ 131
Abstract .................................................................................................................... 131
7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 132
7.2 Background ........................................................................................................ 133
7.3 Sources of data for this study ............................................................................. 136
7.4 Study approach and methodology ...................................................................... 140
7.5 Regression analysis for all usual residents ......................................................... 142
7.6 Cultural group differences .................................................................................. 145
7.7 Contextual/locational issues ............................................................................... 149
7.8 Distance of moves .............................................................................................. 150
7.9 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 152
8. Explaining geographic patterns of small group internal migration .............. 157
Abstract .................................................................................................................... 158
8.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 158
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8.2 The impact of distance on inter-community moves ........................................... 162
8.3 Underlying influences on regional migration .................................................... 169
8.4 Movement patterns ............................................................................................. 173
8.5 Discussion and conclusions relating to 2010-11 migration ............................... 177
8.6 Extending the analysis to the longer term .......................................................... 180
8.7 LS data suitability .............................................................................................. 182
8.8 Medium- and long-term migration patterns ....................................................... 186
8.9 Discussion of medium- and long-term analysis and conclusions ...................... 192
9. Back to the future: applying a current geodemographic classification to
historic data to produce trend-based population projections ............................ 195
Abstract .................................................................................................................... 196
9.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 196
9.2 Challenges in applying the 2011 approach to 2001 census data ........................ 199
9.3 Assessment methodology ................................................................................... 203
9.4 Comparison of the 2001 and 2011 classifications.............................................. 205
9.5 Population change between 2001 and 2011 ....................................................... 209
9.6 Age profiles and sources of intercensal population changes ............................. 211
9.7 Population change in communities .................................................................... 214
9.8 Projecting future population levels .................................................................... 221
9.9 Discussion and conclusions ............................................................................... 227
10. Concluding chapter .......................................................................................... 233
10.1 Reprise of themes and aims.............................................................................. 233
10.2 Addressing the research aims ........................................................................... 234
10.3 Innovation and key academic contribution of the thesis .................................. 244
10.4 Case and scope for future work ........................................................................ 247
10.5 Policy implications ........................................................................................... 250
10.6 Concluding remarks ......................................................................................... 251
Bibliography / Reference List ............................................................................... 253
Appendix A The ethnic group question – background and criticisms ............. 279
Appendix B Univariate analysis of determinants of migration ........................ 287
Appendix C Migration patterns supplementary material ................................. 301
Appendix D Alternative approaches to measuring suburbanisation ............... 315

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List of Figures
Figure 2.1 The religion question on the 2001 E&W census form ............................. 14
Figure 2.2 The religion question on the 2011 E&W census form ............................. 14
Figure 5.1 Group classification based on 7 classes ................................................... 88
Figure 5.2 Seven group classification projected on a Jewish population cartogram 90
Figure 5.3 Variables ranked by importance in distinguishing between classes ........ 91
Figure 5.4 Jewish population pyramids ..................................................................... 97
Figure 6.1 Group population profiles 1931-2011 (England and Wales) ................. 112
Figure 6.2 Group population pyramids, England and Wales, 2011 ........................ 115
Figure 6.3 Allocation of 2001 group population to IMD deciles ............................ 116
Figure 6.4 Percentage point change in IMD decile 2001-2011 ............................... 116
Figure 6.5 Proportion of group population in each LSOA 2001 and 2011 ............. 120
Figure 6.6 LSOAs with largest changes in group population share 2001 to 2011 .. 121
Figure 6.7 Change in distribution 2001 to 2011 at LSOA level ............................. 122
Figure 7.1 Proportion of each age who migrate ...................................................... 138
Figure 7.2 Proportion of population falling into each year of age .......................... 139
Figure 8.1 Impact of distance coefficient on number of moves .............................. 168
Figure 9.1 2001 seven class Jewish geodemographic assessment .......................... 206
Figure 9.2 Class changes between 2001 and 2011 Jewish geodemographic
assessments ............................................................................................................... 208
Figure 9.3 Class population change 2001 to 2011 .................................................. 210
Figure 9.4 2001 and 2011 Jewish age profiles – England and Wales ..................... 212
Figure 9.5 2001 and 2011 Jewish population age profiles by class ........................ 213
Figure 9.6 2001 and 2011 population age profiles – selected communities ........... 216
Figure 9.7 Jewish population estimates, census values, and projections ................ 227
Figure A.1 Extract from 1991 Census England: H form for private households .... 280
Figure A.2 Extract from H1: Count me in Census 2001: England household form 281
Figure A.3 Extract from 2011 census: household questionnaire: England ............. 283
Figure D.1 2001 to 2011 London area analysis group population change .............. 317

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List of Tables

Table 2.1 Proportion not responding to the religion question ..................................... 23
Table 4.1 Summary of study technical approach ........................................................ 52
Table 5.1 Basic characteristics of Jewish accumulations in England and Wales, 2011
...................................................................................................................................... 81
Table 5.2 2011 values of characteristics for analysis groups ...................................... 84
Table 5.3 Allocation of cases to clusters: Ward’s method, groups excluding outliers
...................................................................................................................................... 85
Table 5.4 Allocation of cases to clusters: k-means method including all cases .......... 86
Table 5.5 Allocation of groups and population to classes – 6 class solution .............. 87
Table 5.6 Allocation of groups and population to classes – 7 class solution .............. 87
Table 5.7 Mean values by class for variables used in the classification process ........ 92
Table 5.8 Summary of characteristics of each class .................................................... 93
Table 5.9 Main classes present in each accumulation ................................................. 99
Table 5.10 Comparison of characteristics of Jewish and other residents .................. 100
Table 6.1 Distinct religion and ethnic group categories in the 2001 and 2011 censuses
.................................................................................................................................... 108
Table 6.2 Values of the index of dissimilarity for England and Wales ..................... 110
Table 6.3 2011 England & Wales usual residents – year of arrival .......................... 112
Table 6.4 Demographic, cultural and socio-economic characteristics (2011 E&W) 114
Table 6.5 Proportion of partnered group members with non-group partners ............ 118
Table 6.6 Group agglomerations and population (2011) ........................................... 119
Table 6.7 Characteristics of 400 LSOAs with highest gain and loss of group share 124
Table 6.8 Characteristics of increasing and reducing share areas ............................. 125
Table 7.1 Source data sample size ............................................................................. 137
Table 7.2 Proportion of movers based on timing of status measurement ................. 140
Table 7.3 Order of inclusion of variables .................................................................. 141
Table 7.4 Migration propensity logistic regression analysis for all usual residents .. 144
Table 7.5 Bias in composition of population ............................................................. 146
Table 7.6 Migration propensity logistic regression analysis for cultural groups ...... 148
Table 7.7 Summary of odds of migration relative to the white British group.......... 152
Table 8.1 Jewish inter-community moves 2010-11 .................................................. 164
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Table 8.2 Spatial interaction model parameters ........................................................ 167
Table 8.3 Multinomial logistic regression parameter estimates (Jewish movers 2010-
11) ............................................................................................................................... 170
Table 8.4 Probability of selecting a particular destination region ............................. 171
Table 8.5 London circles and counter-urbanisation .................................................. 174
Table 8.6 Regional migration effectiveness .............................................................. 175
Table 8.7 North-south drift 2010-11 .......................................................................... 176
Table 8.8 Inter-quintile movements 2010-11 ............................................................ 176
Table 8.9 LS members of groups and presence at censuses ...................................... 182
Table 8.10 Approximate proportion of population represented in the LS ................. 183
Table 8.11 Jewish LS member appearances and disappearances 2001-2011 ............ 184
Table 8.12 Characteristics of LS Jewish members present in 2001 .......................... 184
Table 8.13 LS members sample size for internal migration analysis ........................ 186
Table 8.14 London circles migration flows and effectiveness (longer term) ............ 187
Table 8.15 Regional migration effectiveness (longer term) ...................................... 188
Table 8.16 North-south drift (longer term) ................................................................ 189
Table 8.17 Inter-quintile movements (longer term) .................................................. 191
Table 9.1 Range of values of characteristics of analysis groups in 2001 and 2011 .. 200
Table 9.2 Summary of the analysis area system for the 2011 classification ............. 202
Table 9.3 Geodemographic class names and locations ............................................. 207
Table 9.4 Analysis area to class allocation 2001 and 2011 ....................................... 207
Table 9.5 Summary of class population and changes 2001 and 2011 ....................... 210
Table 9.6 Summary of contributors to class population change 2001 to 2011 ......... 214
Table 9.7 Summary of contributors to accumulation population change 2001 to 2011
.................................................................................................................................... 215
Table 9.8 Summary of accumulation population and changes 2001 and 2011 ......... 217
Table 9.9 Breakdown of census-recorded Jewish population of Gateshead 2001 and
2011 ............................................................................................................................ 219
Table 9.10 Summary of fertility and mortality indicators by class ........................... 221
Table 9.11 Jewish population projection ................................................................... 225
Table 9.12 Board of Deputies British Jewish population estimates .......................... 226
Table 10.1 Summary of Jewish accumulations/communities (2011 data) ................ 237
Table B.1 Migration rate by gender and by age ........................................................ 292
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