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West African Studies
The Geography of Conflict
in North and West Africa
Under the direction of
Marie Trémolières, Olivier J. Walther and Steven M. Radil
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and
arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries.
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over
any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Please cite this publication as:
OECD/SWAC (2020), The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa, West African Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/02181039-en.
ISBN 978-92-64-51893-3 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-41137-1 (pdf)
West African Studies
ISSN 2074-3548 (print)
ISSN 2074-353X (online)
Photo credits: Cover © Delphine Chedru.
Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.
© OECD 2020
The use of this work, whether digital or print, is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at http://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions.
The Sahel and West Africa Club
The Sahel and
West Africa Club
The Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) is spatial and forward-looking analyses. SWAC
an independent, international platform. Members and partners are Austria, Belgium,
Its Secretariat is hosted at the Organisation Canada, CILSS, the ECOWAS Commission, the
for Economic Co-operation and Development European Commission, France, Luxembourg,
(OECD). Its mission is to promote regional the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, the
policies that will improve the economic and UEMOA Commission and the United States.
social well-being of people in the Sahel and SWAC has a memorandum of understanding
West Africa. Its objectives are to improve with the University of Florida Sahel Research
the regional governance of food and nutrition Group.
security and improve the understanding
of ongoing transformations in the region and More information:
their policy implications through regional, www.oecd.org/swac
THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020 3
Foreword
Foreword
Since the early 2000s, a combination of It also provides additional knowledge on what
rebel groups, transnational organisations drives terrorist movements. Indeed, military
affiliated with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State interventions have had differential effects on
(IS), and independent self-defence militias the geography of conflicts in the area, although
has challenged the legitimacy and stability of none have resulted in durable peace.
states in North and West Africa. In this region, The last five years were the most violent
governments are increasingly confronted with ever recorded in the region, with the number
new forms of political violence. The geography of areas experiencing local intensification of
of these conflicts is often elusive, due to the political violence rising sharply. According
large number of actors involved, their shifting to our indicators, political violence remains
alliances and their transnational movements. mainly concentrated in border areas, with
The new Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator over 40 percent of violent events and fatalities
(SCDi), developed by the Sahel and West Africa recorded within 100 kilometres of land borders.
Club (SWAC) and presented in this report, Violence targeting civilians also soared,
addresses many pressing questions related to especially in West Africa, where attacks against
the evolving nature of such threats. It examines civilians now exceed clashes between the
the origins, intensity and spatial distribution respective governments and armed groups.
of political violence, as well as its evolution in Degrading security has led West African
the region, notably in the Lake Chad region, in countries and their partners to launch military
Libya and in the Central Sahel. Building on a interventions to stabilise the region, prevent the
database of around 30 360 violent incidents spread of extremism and end violence against
recorded in 21 countries from January 1997 civilians. Since 2010, some African countries
to June 2019, the report maps the changing have formed coalitions that pool military
geography of conflict in North and West Africa. personnel and share intelligence. While some of
4 THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020
Foreword
Foreword
these partnerships concentrate on issues related the goal of contributing to improve regional
to security, such as the Nouakchott Process, and international responses to the changing
other alliances combine security, governance and complex landscape of political violence
and development. Unfortunately, the SCDi in a region with enormous importance and
shows that while military interventions have potential. Ultimately, we hope that this work
generally reduced the intensity of violence will help improve the lives of people in North
in North and West Africa in the short-term, and West Africa.
they have not brought about durable conflict
resolution.
As our report argues, the specificities
of current conflicts in the region call for
innovative responses from national and local
governments, but also from the international
community. Stronger attention must be paid to
understanding the local drivers of insurgencies.
This work and the SCDi indicator aim to provide
a better insight into the impact of geographic
levers on the emergence, development and
spread of conflict, as well as on the impact
of military intervention on the diffusion
and concentration of violence. We hope to
provide evidence-based quantitative and
qualitative knowledge to enrich and promote
a more focused security discussion, with
Angel Gurría Dr Ibrahim Assane Mayaki
Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Chief Executive Officer, African Union
Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) and
Honorary President, Sahel and West Africa
Club (SWAC)
THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020 5
The team and acknowledgments
The team
and acknowledgments
The editorial and drafting team at the SWAC/ the African Borderlands Research Network and
OECD Secretariat: on the advisory board of the African Governance
and Space project. Over the last ten years, he
Marie Trémolières has served as a lead investigator or partner on
externally funded research projects from the
With the help of: OECD, the World Food Programme, NASA, the
European Commission, the European Spatial
Lia Beyeler Planning Observatory, the governments of
Luxembourg and Denmark, and the Carlsberg
Graphic design: Foundation. E-mail: oowwaalltthheerr@@uuflfl..eedduu
Wonjik Yang Steven M. Radil, Ph.D. is an Assistant
Sylvie Letassey Professor of Geography at the University of
Idaho. He holds a Ph.D. in Geography from the
This work is carried out under the memorandum University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
of understanding with the University of Florida Dr Radil is a political geographer and primarily
Sahel Research Group. researches the spatial dimensions of political
violence in the international system, including
Olivier J. Walther, Ph.D., provided scientific civil war, insurgency and terrorism. In
direction and co-ordinated the mapping, Africa, he has previously published on the
analysis and drafting of the report. Dr. Walther diffusion of the internationalised civil war in
is an Assistant Professor in Geography at the the Democratic Republic of the Congo and on
University of Florida, an associate professor of the territorial ambitions of Islamist-inspired
political science at the University of Southern insurgencies. He has methodological expertise
Denmark, and a consultant for SWAC/OECD. in spatial analysis, social network analysis,
His current research focuses on cross-border and geographic information science (GIS) and
trade and transnational political violence in routinely uses these tools in his work.
West Africa. Dr Walther is the Africa Editor of E-mail: ssrraaddiill@@uuiiddaahhoo..eedduu
the Journal of Borderlands Studies, a “chief” of
6 THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020
The team and acknowledgments
The team
and acknowledgments
External contributors:
Matthew Pf laum is a Ph.D. student in the
David G. Russell is an independent researcher Department of Geography at the University of
of political geography. He holds a MSc in Florida. He holds an MSc in African Studies &
Geography from the University of Idaho. His International Development from the University
research has focused on quantifying the spatio- of Edinburgh and an MPH in global health/
temporal patterns of political violence and on infectious disease from Emory University. He
how geopolitical rhetoric shapes the ways is broadly interested in mobility and violence
people see the world and its history. Mr. Russell in West Africa and the Sahel and the factors
has conducted research at the Middle East contributing to joining militias and extremist
Institute in Washington, D.C., and he currently organisations. The focus of his work is on
works as a consultant for OECD/SWAC. pastoralist groups and the tensions that arise
E-mail: ddaavviiddgguuyyrruusssseellll@@ggmmaaiill..ccoomm with other groups and governments over
resources, land, governance, mobility, and
Tatiana Smirnova, Ph.D. is a Research power. E-mail: mmppflflaauumm@@uuflfl..eedduu
Assistant Scientist in the Department of
Geography at the University of Florida. She The team thanks the following for their
holds a Ph.D. in Social Anthropology from contribution to the writing of the report:
the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Laurent Bossard, SWAC/OECD Secretariat;
Sciences (EHESS, Paris). She has been working Leonardo A. Villalón, Adib Bencherif, University
on political violence in the Sahel region of Florida; Clionadh Raleigh, University of Sussex.
focusing on student movements in Niger
and on insurgency in the Lake Chad region.
Dr Smirnova also worked as an international
consultant for Transparency International,
Search for Common Ground and the Danish
Refugee Council. E-mail: tt..ssmmiirrnnoovvaa@@uuflfl..eedduu
THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020 7
Table of contents
Table of contents
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15
CHAPTER 1
THE COMPLEXITY OF VIOLENCE IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA 17
THE INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF CONFLICT 19
A spatial indicator of political violence 20
Four types of conflict geography 22
Conflicts are local but increasingly violent 23
MODERN CONFLICTS AND MILITARY INTERVENTIONS 26
POLITICAL OPTIONS AND LONG-TERM STABILITY 29
References 30
CHAPTER 2
CHARACTERISTICS OF MODERN CONFLICTS IN AFRICA 31
WHY SO MANY CONFLICTS IN AFRICA? 32
Governance of postcolonial elites 32
Presence or absence of natural resources 33
Search for sovereignty 33
Use of ethnicity 34
Use of religion 34
GEOGRAPHY AND WAR 37
Geography and interstate war 37
Geography and civil war 39
HOW SPACE SHAPES POLITICAL ACTORS 40
Place 41
Distance 41
Identity 43
Borders 44
Territory 50
8 THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT IN NORTH AND WEST AFRICA © OECD 2020
