Table Of ContentORGANIZING COMMITTEE
FOR
THE CONFERENCE
Philippe de Seynes UNITAR
Wolf Häfele NASA
Joseph Barnea UNITAR
Michel Grenon NASA
Richard Seidl NASA
Bernardo F. Grossling U.S. Geological Survey
Claude R. Hocott The University of Texas
Michael Bloome UNITAR, Executive Secretary
II
The Future Supply
of
Nature-made Petroleum and Gas
Technical Reports
An International Conference Sponsored by
The United Nations Institute for
Training and Research (UNITAR)
and
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (NASA)
As
The First UNITAR Conference on Energy and the Future
and
The Second NASA Conference on Energy Resources
5-16 July 1976
Schloss Laxenburg, Laxenburg, Austria
J. Barnea and M. Grenon
Scientific Secretaries
R.F. Meyer
Editor
PERGAMON PRESS
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WEST GERMANY Pergamon Press GmbH, 6242 Kronberg/Taunus, Frankfurt-am-Main,
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Copyright© 1977 Unitar
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Unitar Conference on Energy and the Future, 1st,
Laxenburg, Austria, 1976.
The future supply of nature-made petroleum and
gas.
1. Petroleum-Congresses. 2. Gas, Natural-
Congresses. I. Meyer, Richard F. II. United
Nations Institute for Training and Research.
III. International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis. IV. NASA Conference on Energy
Resources, 2d, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976. V. Title.
TN863.U54 1976 665\5 77-7277
ISBN 0-08-021734-6
ISBN 0-08-021735-4 pbk.
All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright
holder, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical
articles and reviews.
Printed in the United States of America
IV
V
PARTICIPANTS IN THE CONFERENCE
Mr. K. M. Al-Shibibi Prof. 0. E. Childs
Organization for Petroleum 8 Holden Hall
Exporting Countries Texas Tech University
Dr. Karl Lueger-Ring 10 Lubbock, Texas 79409 USA
1010 Vienna, Austria.
Mr. R. A. Colonna
Dr. J. Barnea Environmental Protection Agency
UNITAR 401 M Street, N.W.
801 United Nations Plaza Washington, D.C. 20001 USA
New York, New York 10017 USA
Dr. M. Comtet
Mr. J. M. Beaujean ELF-Aquitaine
11 AS A 7 Rue Nelaton
2316 Laxenburg, Austria Paris 15, France
Mr. M. Bloome Mr. C. Cronquist
UNITAR Gulf Universities Research
801 United Nations Plaza
Consortium
New York, New York 10017 USA
5909 West Loop South
Houston, Texas 77401 USA
Dr. I. A. Breger
U.S. Geological Survey Prof. J. R. Crump
923 National Center Department of Chemical
Reston, Virginia 22092 USA Engineering
University of Houston
Prof. W. E. Brigham Cullen Boulevard
Department of Petroleum Houston, Texas 77004 USA
Engineering
Stanford University Dr. A. W. Decora
Stanford, California 94305 USA Laramie Energy Research Center
PO Box 3395, University Station
Mr. Ph. Bourcier Laramie, Wyoming 8 2070 USA
International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development Mr. J. R. Donnell
1818 H Street, N.W. U.S. Geological Survey
Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Box 25046, Stop 939
Denver Federal Center
Mr. C. W. Bowman Denver, Colorado 80225 USA
Alberta Oil Sands Technology &
Research Authority Prof. M. H. Dorfman
9915 108 Street Department of Petroleum
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Engineering
University of Texas
Prof. B. H. Caudle Austin, Texas 78712 USA
Department of Petroleum
Engineering Dr. T. M. Doscher
University of Texas 8948 Wonderland Park Avenue
Austin, Texas 78712 USA Los Angeles, California
90046 USA
Mr. Bernard Chaix
11 AS A
2 316 Laxenburg, Austria
VI
Mr. W. F. Dublin-Green Dr. B. F. Grossling
Organization of Petroleum U.S. Geological Survey
Exporting Countries 120 National Center
Dr. Karl Lueger-Ring 10 Reston, Virginia 22092 USA
1010 Vienna, Austria
Mr. F. J. Gutierrez
Mr. H. Du Moulin Ministerio de Minase
Shell International Hidrocarburos
Shell Center Faja Petrolifera del Orinoco
London SE 1, UK Torre Norte Piso 26
Caracas 101, Venezuela
Dr. K. 0. Emery
Woods Hole Océanographie Prof. W. Häfele
Institute II AS A
Woods Hole, Massachusetts 2 316 Laxenburg, Austria
02543 USA
Dr. H. H. Hasiba
Dr. S. Erhardt Gulf Science and Technology
RUHRGAS AG Company
Huttropstrasse 60 PO Drawer 2038
4300 Essen 1 FRG Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
15230 USA
Mr. T. Filimon
U.N. Economic Commission for Dr. J. D. Haun
Africa Colorado School of Mines
PO Box 3005 Golden, Colorado 80401 USA
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mr. J. A. Hcchhalter
Dr. W. Frank Halliburton Company
BM f. Handel, Gewerbe & Princess Beatrixlaan 7
Industrie The Hague, Netherlands
Stubernring 1
1010 Vienna, Austria Prof. C. R. Hocott
Department of Petroleum
Dr. P. Frankel Engineering
I Argyll Street University of Texas
London W 1, UK Austin, Texas 78712 USA
Mr. G. Gess Dr. A. H. Houpeurt
Institut Francais du Pétrole c/o Institut Français du
4 Av Bois Preau Pétrole
92500 Rueil Malmaison, France B.P. 18
92502 Rueil Malmaison, France
Mr. G. Goni
Bureau de Recherches Mr. E. F. Janssens
Géologiques et Minieres U.N. Economie Commission
B.P. 6009 for Europe
45018 Orléans-Cedex, France Palais des Nations
1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Prof. M. Grenon
II AS A Dr. T. B. Johansson
2316 Laxenburg, Austria Environmental Studies Program
University of Lund
Helgonavagen 5
S-22362 Lund, Sweden
vii
Prof. P. H. Jones Dr. R. F. Meyer
Department of Geology U.S. Geological Survey
Louisiana State university 920 National Center
Baton Rouge, Louisiana Reston, Virginia 22092 USA
70803 USA
Dr. D. J. Milton
Dr. A. G. Kaufman U - S . Geological Survey
OMV AG 345 Middlefield Road
Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 17 Menlo Park, California
1030 Vienna, Austria 94025 USA
Dr. H. D. Klemme Dr. A. A. Mironov
Weeks Natural Resources UNITAR
287 Riverside Avenue 801 United Nations Plaza
Westport, Connecticut New York, New York 10017 USA
06880 USA
Mr. J. D. Müller
Dr. E. H. Koepf Federal Energy Administration
PO Box 47547 12th and Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Dallas, Texas 75247 USA Washington, D.C. 20461 USA
Dr. N. V. Kourochkin Dr. F. H. Murphy
United Nations Industrial Federal Energy Administration
Development Organization 12th and Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Lerchenfelderstr. 1 C-201 Washington, D.C. 20461 USA
1010 Vienna, Austria
Mr. J. B. Owokalu
Mr. V. A. Kuuskraa Department of Petroleum
3811 Argyle Terrace, N.W. Resources
Washington, D.C. 20011 USA Lagos, Nigeria
Dr. R. Levien Mr. M.W.H. Peebles
I IAS A Shell International Gas Limited
2316 Laxenburg, Austria Shell Centre
London, SE 1, UK
Dr. E. A. Lohse
Gulf Universities Research Prof. A. Propoy
Consortium Institute of Control Sciences
5909 West Loop South Moscow v. 27 9, USSR
Houston, Texas 77401 USA
Dr. P. L. Randolph
Mr. H. Malti El Paso Natural Gas Company
Organization of Arab PO Box 1492
Petroleum Exporting Countries El Paso, Texas 79978 USA
PO Box 20501
Al-Soor Street Mr. E. O. Ray
Salmiya, Kuwait Kentucky-West Virginia Gas
Company
Dr. C. D. Masters Box 431
U.S. Geological Survey Prestonsburg, Kentucky
915 National Center 41653 USA
Reston, Virginia 22092 USA
viii
Dr. Kenneth E. Rosing Dr. R. P. Sheldon
Economic Geography Institute U.S. Geological Survey
Erasmus University 911 National Center
PO Box 1783 Reston, Virginia 22092 USA
Rotterdam 3016, Netherlands
Dr. M. A. Styrikovich
Mr. G. H. Royer The Academy of Sciences
Centre for Natural Resources, c/o State Committee for USSR
Energy and Transport Council of Ministers for
Room DC-810 Science and Technology
United Nations 11 Gorky Street
New York, New York 10017 USA Moscow, USSR
Mr. 0. Ruyssen Prof. M. L. Surguchev
SEMA PO Box 125422
16-18 Rue Barbis Dimitrovsky Proyezd. 10
92128 Montrouge, France Moscow, USSR
Dr. F. Sager Mr. V. Surkov
United Nations Industrial The Academy of Sciences
Development Organization c/o State Committee for USSR
PO Box 837 Council of Ministers for
1010 Vienna, Austria Science and Technology
11 Gorky Street
Mr. M. Saidji Moscow, USSR
Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries Mr. 0. Vipperman
Dr. Karl Lueger-Ring 10 Charles Owens & Associates
1010 Vienna, Austria 1709 New York Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006 USA
Dr. F. K. Salmanov
The Academy of Sciences Ms. Hester Vogelaar
c/o State Committee for USSR Erasmus University
Council of Ministers for PO Box 1783
Science and Technology Rotterdam 3016, Netherlands
11 Gorky Street
Moscow, USSR Mr. J. W. Watkins
Energy Research and Development
Dipl. Eng. R. Seidl Administration
IIASA 20 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
2316 Laxenburg, Austria Washington, D.C. 20545 USA
Dr. R. Seiful-Muloukov Prof. R. L. Whiting
Baltijskaja 14 Department of Petroleum
Moscow, A-219, USSR Engineering
Texas A&M University
M. P. de Seynes College Station, Texas
UNITAR 77843 USA
801 United Nations Plaza
New York, New York 10017 USA
IX
FOREWORD
Philippe de Seynes
The topic of energy is so central to the world predicament
that no institution looking at the future or at the complex in-
teractions of global problems can fail to deal with it in one or
the other of its aspects. IIASA, as a major exponent of systems
dynamics, an approach to problem solving which seeks to broaden
the traditional information base and to delve into the complex
structure of the policy-making process, and UNITAR, as an arm of
the United Nations, which has recently initiated a Programme of
Future Studies, largely oriented toward the creation of a New
International Economic Order, are currently devoting to energy a
substantial part of their efforts. The papers reproduced in this
volume were presented at a conference jointly organized by these
two institutions and held in Laxenburg from July 5 to July 16,
1976.
During the early 1970fs, the attention of the world was
focused, as never before, on the problems of natural resources
and energy. Both the new strategy of OPEC countries and the
dramatic warnings of the Club of Rome, induced governments and
private institutions to take a hard look at the long-term avail-
ability of natural resources. As the world awakened to the
notion of "physical limits" and the "carrying capacity of the
planet," many took a big leap toward sweeping conclusions on the
basis of scanty data and inadequate understanding of empirical
relationships between various phenomena. Thus, hasty generaliza-
tions may already have been translated, at least marginally, into
public policies or investment decisions.
Yet, in the context of the high level of controversy which
accompanied the launching of Limits to Growth in 1972, it be-
came clear that the findings of global computerized models could
hardly be invoked for policy guidance unless the empirical
Director, Programme of Future Studies, UNITAR.
2
Meadows, Dennis L., and Donella H., Limits to Growth. Re-
port to the Club of Rome (MIT, Cambridge, Mass., 1972).
X
knowledge on which they were built was significantly improved.
It appears at this stage essential to probe current hypotheses
and evaluations regarding supplies of depletable resources, and
to make a serious attempt to come closer to a consensus in this
regard. It seems particularly timely to look at Nature-Made
Petroleum and Gas, as the recent sharp increase in prices could
not fail to enlarge significantly the volume of resources re-
coverable under the new economic conditions. Oil and gas are
unique resources which alone among energy sources can be used
for all purposes, and there was a certain confidence on the part
of the two organizations sponsoring the Conference, that its
future is brighter than is currently admitted in most of th epro-
nouncements about the future of energy.
With the availability of a variety of unconventional sources
of petroleum and gas, the "age of petroleum" may be considerably
extended—nature-made hydrocarbons may play a most important role
in the difficult transition to a new energy economy, hopefully
based on renewable resources. The conditions under which such a
transition will be managed are today raising momentous issues:
For almost a quarter of a century nuclear energy had been seen
in many circles as the natural successor to petroleum and gas.
But the perspective of the proliferation of atomic reactors is
now generating a widespread and deep "malaise" as the assumptions
in regard to safety and costs on the basis of which the nuclear
option had been so widely supported, are increasingly challenged.
The Conference was conceived and convened as a technological
encounter, bringing together outstanding experts to compare their
experience and knowledge and to explore the present "state of the
art," in relation to the totality of known petroleum and gas re-
sources and their future availability in the light of new technol-
ogies, as well as time and cost constraints. While the Conference
did not answer all questions involved in the search for alterna-
tive energy sources, it was able to draw a comprehensive picture
in regard to petroleum and gas, and it represents a useful "build-
ing block" in the vast effort on which mankind is now embarked.
Furthermore, the discussions revealed a number of broader
problems which directly condition the development of new resources
xi
and which policy makers should now begin to tackle vigorously.
The institutional frameworks within which new endeavors in the
field on energy resources are taking place do not appear to
afford the optimum context in which early breakthroughs can be
expected. One striking aspect of the present situation, which
became obvious at the very outset of the Conference and was
confirmed during its 2 weeks of deliberations, is the lack of
communication in regard to Research and Development. Experts in
some 20 types of oil and gas resources were apparently meeting
for the first time in an international gathering. This state of
affairs is not solely due to a certain inertia or to the natural
compartmentalization of Research and Development activities. The
principle of confidentiality conditions public as well as private
enterprises when new and innovative technologies are at stake.
Its importance must be recognized, and in the light of the
achievements of the last quarter century, it could hardly be said
that it has thwarted technological progress. Yet, in the face
of possible scarcities, it must also be acknowledged that a
strict application of the principle results in a needless multi-
plication of inherently large expenditures and in the inevitable
lengthening of the lead time necessary for the maturation of new
technologies. New ways of combining cooperation and competition
seem to be called for. Indeed, the institutional system for
Research and Development is already visibly changing and becoming
more diversified. The rapid build-up of the Energy Research and
Development Administration in the United States, for example, may
epitomize a new trend.
This is only one aspect of the broader question anxiously
asked today in so many quarters: whether and how Research and
Development should be more efficiently oriented toward the basic
needs of mankind. The market does not give reliable signals when
there is great uncertainty about available resources and when
environmental considerations significantly influence the decision-
making process. One may then well wonder what there is in the
past and present institutional arrangements, or in the behavior
of the techno-structures which has caused, for so long, a serious
