Table Of ContentTheF uturoef t he
Automobile
TheI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo gram
Co-DirectDoarnsi:e Rlo osa ndA lanA ltshuler
NationTaela m Leaders
France MicheFlr ybourg
Italy PatrizBiioa nchi
Japan HideoN akamuraan dY ukihidOkea no
Sweden LarsS jostedt
UniteKdi ngdomD anieJlo nes
UniteSdt ates AlanA ltshulaenrdD anieRlo os
WestG ermany MeinolDfi erkes
PrograSme cretariat
MartiAnn dersoEnx,e cutiOvfef ic(e1r 981-1984)
RoberGtr eeneE,x ecutiOvfef ic(e1r 980-1981)
MaryM cShaneR,e searAcshs ociate
JamesW omack,R esearAcshs ociate
RobC oppockE,u ropeaCno ordinator
TrisFhl eminAgd,m inistraAtsisvies tant
Acknowledgment
Thei nternaticoonoarld inatoifto hni psr ograamn dt hep reparatoifot nh is
volumew eres upportbeydt heG ermanM arshaFluln do ft heU niteSdt ates
andt heL illEyn dowment.
TheF uturoef t he
Automobile
TheR eporotfM IT's
InternatAiuotnoamlo bile
Prgoram
by
AlanA ltshuler
MartiAnn derson
DanieJlo nes
DanieRlo os
JameWso mack
withc ontributbiyo ns
HermannA ppel
DavidB ayliss
GunnaHre dlund
MasakazIug uchi
KazutosKhois hiro
HarrKya tz
KarLlu dvigsen
MaryM cShane
RemyP rud'homme
WolfganSgt reeck
TheM ITP ress
CambridgMea,s sachusetts
FirMsItT Prepsasp erbeadcikt i1o9n8,6
© 1984b yt heM assachuseItntsst itouftT ee chnology
Allr ighrtess erveNdo, p arotf t hibso okm ay ber eproducienad n yf ormb y anye lec
tronoircm echanicmaela ns( includpihnogt ocopyirnegc,o rdionrgi ,n formatsitoonr
agea ndr etriewviatlh)o upte rmissiionwn r itifnrgo mt hep ublisher.
Thisb ookh asb eens eti nP alatino
byT heM IT PresCso mputergrapDheipcasr tment
andp rintaendd b ound
int heU niteSdt ateosfA merica
LibraorfCy o ngreCsast alogiinPn ugb licaDtaitoan
Maine ntruyn dert itle:
TheF uturoef t hea utomobile.
Bibliograpp.h y:
Includiensd ex.
1.A utomobiilned ustarnyd t radle..A l tshulAelra,nA .,1 936-I.I M.a ssachuseItnts
stituotfTe e chnoloIgIyI.I. n ternatiAountaolm obiPlreo gram.
HD9710.A2F8179 84 338.4'762928 4-12269
ISB9N 78-0-262(-h:0ea 1.l0 pk8a.1p -e- 8r9 )7 8-0-262(-p5ba1.l0 pk3:a.8 p -e7r )
Contents
Prefavciei
1 TheA utomobilaen dI tsI ndusturnyd erS iege1
2 A Centuroyf T ransformati1o1n s
3 CanA utomobiliEtnyd ure4?7
4 TechnologiOcpaplo rtunitfioerAs d aptati7o7n
5 How Many Cars?1 07
6 TheN aturoef C ompetiti1o2n1
7 The CompetitiBvael anc1e4 5
8 TheF uturSeh apeo ft heW orldA utoI ndustr1y8 1
9 LaborR elatioannsd E mploymenAtd justmen1t9s9
10 Nationisn C ompetitiTohne: T radeD ilemma2 23
11 Walkintgh eT ightropCeh:o iceisn a n Erao f
Transformat2i4o7n
Contents vi
Appendixes
A NationRaels earTceha msP articipiantt ihneIg n ternational
AutomobiPlreo gra2m6 3
B Participiannt thseI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo graPmo licy
Forums2 67
C Industrial-ReSlyasttieominsnst heU niteSdt atetsh,eU nited
Kingdoma,n dW estG ermany2 75
D TheC asef orF reTer ade2 91
Notes3 01
Index3 13
Preface
TheI nternatiAountaolm obilPer ogram
In1 979i,n t hem idsotf t hes econedn ergsyh ockw,e -likmea ny
others-begtaonw ondera boutth ef uturoeft hea utomobile-based
systeomf p ersontarla nsportaWteiroein t.rs e sourdceem andssu stain
ablep,a rticuliantr hlely i ghotfi tcso mpledteep endenocnep etroleum?
Coultdh ee arthe'nsv ironmteonlte reavteer -increaamsoiunngto sfa uto
traveWlo?u ldt hew orldc'ist izaecncse tphte s afeatnyd u rban-amenity
consequenocfem sa ssa utmoo biliotvye rt hel ongt ermA?s energy
pricseosa retdh,e f irosftt hesceo ncerinnsp articusleaerm etdo c ast
a shadowo nt hef uturofet hea utomobile.
Att hes amet imet,h ew orld econwoamsey n teritnhgew orsetc onomic
downtursni ncteh eG reaDte pressiaonndt, h ea ution dustwraysa mong
theh ardest-sheictt oIrtss .o on became apparaelntth otuhtgahhte ,
continusipnrge aodfa utomobilmiigthyt caruesseo uracned e nviron
mentaclh allengae msa,j ocro ntractiinao unt op roductwiaosne ven
moret roubltiont gh ew orlda'dsv anceidn dustreicaoln omieIsna. d
ditiobne,c austeh ee ffecotfts h ed ownturinn a utos alewse ref elitn
different dbeyg trheele esa dianugt o-produncaitnigo nwsi,t hs ome
countriaeust'oi ndustrfiaelst eraisno gt herssu rgeadh eadt,h ew orld
tradisnygs tewma ss howinsge riosutsr ains.
Int hissi tuatoifoc nr iswies ,r esolvteodm ounta ne xaminatoifo n
thea utomotisvyes tetmh awto uldb eu nusuailnt hreree specFtisr.s t,
itw oulid ntegrtahtepe e rspectoiftv heoss weh of ocuosn t hea utomobile
asa travmeold ea ndt hosceo ncernweidt hi tpsr oductiTorna.n spor
tatioenn,v ironmenatnadlr ,e souracnea lyswtosu ldb ea sketdo c ol
laborawtiet hs tudenotfsc orporaotreg anizaatnidof ni nanclea,b or
relatiaonndsi ,n ternatitornaadSlee .c ondt,h es tudwyo uldb eg lobal
Preface viii
ino rientatTihoinr.di ,tt si mef ramweo ulde xtenpda stth ee ndo ft he
century.
Durin1g9 80w e workewdi thl eadirnegs earicnhs tituitniF ornasn ce,
ItalJya,p anS,w edent,h eU niteKdi ngdomt,h eU niteSdt ateasn,dW est
Germanyt od eveloap n ationraels eartceha mi ne achc ountr(yT.h e
memberasr el istienda ppendAix) Theses evenna tionwsh,i chw e
refetro a st heA utoP rogracmo untriaecsc,o unfto rt hree-fouorft hs
thew orldm'ost or-vehpircoldeu ctainodnt wo-thirdnse wo-fv ehicle
saleIsn.a ddititohne,ya ret heh omec ountroifea sl tlh et ransnational
automobimlaen ufacturers.
Ouri ntewnats t oc onducat t rulcyo mprehenseixvaem inatfiroonm,
manyp erspectainvdew si tha viewt ot hel ong-tefrumt uroef,t he
social conseqoufte hneca eust omobialsae c onsumeprr oduacntd o n
thea uto induassat creyn tral eloeftm heenw to rledc onomyT.o fully
achieovuer g oalw,e felittw ase ssenttioua nld ersttahnedp erspectives
oft hed ecisimoank erwsh o shapteh ed estionfyt hea utomobialned
thea ution dustWrey t.h erefsoorlei cittheetd h oughotfss e nicoorm pany
executiuvneiso,ln e adearnsd, governomfefnitc cioanlcse rnweidt hth e
healtohft hea utoi ndustirnty h es eveAnu toP rogracmo untriWees .
alssoo ughotu tt hev iewosf l eadeirnsi ndustrcileoss eilnyv olvweidt h
thea utos ectosru,c ha se nergayn df inancaen,dt hosweh o deawli th
thes ideef fecotfas u tou sei,n cludienngv ironmentagloivsetrsn,m ent
regulataonrdst ,r ansportation Tphleasnienn edrisv.i dwuearlesa sked
toj oitnh er eseartceha misn a serioefsf orumhse lda nnualolvye ra
three-ypeearri oidnt heU niteSdt ateJsa,p ana,n dE uropTeh.o sweh o
acceptoeudri nvitattiopo anr ticiapraelt ies tienda ppendBi.x
Thef orumpsr ovidaem de chanifsomtr h esien dividtuoat laslf kr ankly
abouitm portaanutt o-reliastseudae nsd t oc ommenotn A utoP rogram
researfcihn dinWges s.h oulmda kec leatrh ata,l thoutghhef orupma r
ticipahnatvset akegnr eapta intso c ritidcriazfeot fst hivso lumef,o r
whiche fforwtes a red eeplgyr ateftuhle,ri esn os uggesttihoantt h ey
agrewei tho re ndorsoeu rf indings.
TheM assachusIentsttsi toufTt eec hnolojgoyi,n tly tthhreoC uegnht er
forT ransportaSttiuodni aensd t heC entefro rI nternatiSotnuadli es,
serveads h eadquartfeorrts h ec oordinatoift ohne o veraplrlo gram.
(Thidso esn otm ean,o fc oursteh,a MtI T asa n entietnyd orstehse
findinogfts h ep rograomr o ft hirse porAts.p )r ogracmo -direcwteo rs
workedi ntensivdeulryi ntgh ep rogrami'nsi tyieaalr t od evelotph e
conceplti,nu ep f undinagn,di denttiefayml eadeirnts h eA utoP rogram
countriIenss .u bsequeyneta rDsa nieRlo osa dministetrheed inter-
Preface ix
nationparlo grapml,a nnetdh ea nnuaflo rumasn,d s upervitsheepd r o
gram'rse searaccht iviitnit ehsea reaosf a utomobile tecahnndo logy
useA.l anA ltshulteoro kr esponsibfiolrti hteyo verailnlt egraotfi on
thep rogramr'ess earaccht iviatnides su pervipsreodg rarme searicnh
thea reaosf i ndustarnya lysainsdp ublipco licy.
Thea mbitionuast uraen dt hei nternatfioocnuaoslft heA utoP rogram
requirtehdec ooperatainodnc ommitmenotfm anyi nstitutainodn s
individiunas lesv ecno untriWees w.i shi np articutloaa crk nowledge
thed edicateefdf orotvse,ra four-yepaerr ioodf,t het eaml eaders:
PatrizBiioa nchIit,a lMye;i nolDfi erkeWse,s tG ermanyM;i cheFlr y
bourgF,r ancDea;n ieJlo nesU,n iteKdi ngdomH;i deoN akamuraan d
YukihiOdkea noJ,a pana;n dL arsS josteSdwte,d enO.t hermsa king
importacnotn tributtioto hneas d ministroaftt ihoepn r ograwme reR ob
Coppocokf t heS cienCceen teirn B erliwnh,o coordinamtaendy o f
thep rogramE'usr opeaacnt iviatnideR so,b erWth itfowrhdo,o rganized
AutoP rograrme searactPh u rduUen iversity.
A researecfhf oorftt h imsa gnitude reaql uairrgaeems o unotf f inancial
supporotv era numbero fy earsI.na ddititoont hes upporfto rt he
internaticoonoarld inatoifto hne p rograpmr ovidbeyd theG erman
MarshaFluln do ft heU niteSdt ateasn dt heL illEyn dowmente,a ch
nationraels eartceha mo btainfeudn dfsr omp ubliacn dp rivaotreg a
nizatiionni st hso mec ountrWye. t akteh iosp portunoint bye haloff
ourc olleagtuoge rsa tefully acktnhoemw alneydf gien anccioanlt ributors
who madet hep rograpmo ssible.
TheP resenVto lume
Att hec onclusoifof no uyre arosf i ntensrievsee aricnhv olviinngn u
merablceo nsultatainodcn osm municatiaomnosn ga cademics, govern
mento fficials, companya nedxu enciuoltnei avdeeswr,es b,e lietvhea t
theI nternatAiuotnoamlo biPlreo grahma sa ccomplisthheemd o stc om
prehensaisvsee ssmeevnetcr o nductoefda majowro rlidn dustarnyd
itpsr oducTth.i vso lumies a repoorntt hes tatoeft hea utomobainlde
thea utoi ndustarnyd t heifru turper ospecbtass eodn thef indinogfs
thep rograImt.i sn ota consensvuise wo ft hospea rticipiantt ihneg
progranmo,r i si ta massivceo mpilatoifof na ctasn df igurReast.h er,
iti sa collaborative intaenrdap nraeltyasbtiyits oh nep rinciapuatlh ors
whicaht tempttous n dersttahnedp robleimnsh ereinnet v er-expanding
automobiltihtewy a,y si nw hicht hea utoi ndustmrayy e volvient he
futuraen,d t hef uturpeo litical eocfot nhoeam uyt omotiwvoer ld.
Preface x
Asi na nyw orko fc ollaboraat wioornda, b oustp ecicfoinct ributions
isn ecessaArlya.nA ltshulJearm,eW so macka,n dD anieRlo osp rovided
theo verall diarnedct thieeo dni torcioaolr dinattoif oonr gaen i ntegrated
manuscrfirpotm a diversoiftp ya rtJsa.m eWso mackp reparcehda pter
I and,w ithA lanA ltshulceor-,a uthocrheadp te2r sa nd1 1.R emy
Prud'hommseu pplitehdem ateriianlc hapt2e ro n thef uturoeft he
autoi ndustirnyt hel esdse velopceodu ntriaensdD, a nieJlo necso n
tributkeedyc oncepatbso utth ep roceosfsi ndustervyo lutiCohna.p ter
3 wasw rittbeynJ amesW omack,d rawinogn materiparlesp arbeyd
MaryM cShanien h err olaes c oordinaotfto hrep rograma'ust omobile
uses tudiCehsa.p te4r w asc o-authobryeJ da meWso macka ndD aniel
Jonesw,i thc ontributfiroonmHs e rmanA ppelM,a sakazIug uchain,d
LarsS josteAdlta.nA ltshuwlerro tceh apt5e,rd rawinogn materials,
inclugd itnhep rogramd'esm andm odelp,r eparbeyd D avidB ayliss.
JamesW omack,M artiAnn dersoann,d D anieJlo newse rej ointrley
sponsifbolcreh apte6r,7s, a nd8 .C hapte9rw asc o-authobryeH da rry
Katazn dW olfgaSntg reewcikt,ch o ntributfiroonmKs a zutosKhois hiro.
Chapte1r0 w asp reparbeydA lanA ltshulAeprp.e ndiCx i st hew ork
ofH arrKya tzW,o lfganSgt reecDka,v iMda rsdeann,d S tepheWno od.
GunnaHre dluncdo ntribuAtpepde ndiDx. K arLlu dvigseedni tetdh e
manuscrifpotr s tylistic consainsdtc eonnctyi nuiHtoyw.e vert,h ese
individautatlr ibutmiuosntns o to bscutrhee f actth atth ev olumhea s
beena trulcyo llaboraetfifvoterh tr oughout.
OtherA utoP rograRme search
Althougthh ivso lumies t hem ostc omprehenspiuvbel icatuinodne r
thea egiosf t heI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo graimt,r epreseonntlsy
a tinfyr actoifot nh ep rogramr'ess earfcihn dinTghse.w orkinpga pers
thaptr ovidmeods to ft hee videnfcoert hei nterpretaptrieosnesn ted
int hivso lumaer ea vailafbrloem t heM IT Centefro rT ransportation
StudieCsa,m bridgMea,s sachuse0t2t1s3 9I.n a dditisoenv,e rcaolm
plementavroyl umeasr ei np reparatbiyoi nn dividual respeaarrchers
ticipaitnit nhgep rograTmh.e sceo vearw ider angoef t opicisn,c luding
tradpeo licayu,t omotitveec hnoloaguyt,o mobiulseel ,a borre lations,
andt hef utuorfet hea utomobainldet hea ution dustirnty h ed eveloping
countries.
Att heo utsoeftt heA utoP rograwme believtehda tth ew orlfda ced
a growinnge edf orf arseeaisnsge ssmeonftk se yi ndustrainedts h eir
sociraalm ificatWieo bnesl.i evfeudr,t htehra,tt h esaes sessmecnotusl d
