Table Of ContentTHE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY
The Future of European
Security
The Pursuit of Peace in an Era
of Revolutionary Change
Edited by
J. Philip Rogers
Department of Political Science
George Washington University
M
MACMILLAN
© J. Philip Rogers 1993
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993
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FU'St published 1993 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LID
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-13097-9 ISBN 978-1-349-13095-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-13095-5
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
Copy-edited and typeset by Grahame & Grahame Editorial, Brighton
This book is dedicated to my son,
Benjamin Philip Rogers.
May he never know war.
Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments X
Notes on the Contributors xii
Introduction: An Era of Revolutionary Change 1
J. Philip Rogers
PART ONE: POTENTIAL THREATS TO PEACE 19
1 What Future for Russia and the Commonwealth
of Independent States? 21
Peter Reddaway
2 The Disintegration of the USSR: Implications
for European Security 31
J. Philip Rogers
3 Central European Security 42
Joshua Spero
4 Neither a Pawn nor a Superpower: A New Security
Arrangement for Germany in Europe 58
lngo Peters
5 Immigration, Hypernationalism, and European Security 74
Gallya Lahav
6 Offense-Defense Balance, Force-to-Space Ratios, and
Defense Effectiveness 82
Stephen Biddle
PART TWO: RESPONSES TO THREATS 87
7 Peacekeeping in the New Europe: Lessons from
Yugoslavia 89
James Goodby
vii
viii Contents
8 New Components of the European Security System:
The Roles of CFE, NATO, EC, and the CSCE 105
Jonathan Dean
9 The Negotiations on Confidence and Security-Building
Measures: The Vienna Agreement and Beyond 122
Bruce George and John Borawski
10 CFE and the Future of NATO 133
Phil Williams
11 Congressional Attitudes on the Future of European
Security: The Burden-Sharing Issue in Various Guises 145
Stanley Sloan
12 Redefining America's Role in Europe 156
Jennone Walker
Conclusion: Peace in Our Time? The Case for Qualified
Optimism 168
J. Philip Rogers
Glossary 187
Notes 192
Index 209
Preface
As the title indicates, this book is about the search for peace in Europe
during an era of revolutionary change. This is an extremely difficult task
because the process is still unfolding at a rapid rate. To attempt to analyze
the future of European security is to aim at a moving target. Speaking of
the difficulty in the opening of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, U.S.
Secretary of State Baker is reputed to have remarked: "If anyone tells you
a year ago that they predicted this would happen, ask them what they were
smoking." In 1991, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, the difficulty of
making predictions increased. Perhaps thirty years down the road scholars,
with the benefit of twenty-twenty hindsight, will write the definitive work
on this era. Anything prior to that time must necessarily be tentative and
at least some of the analysis conducted now will make false predictions or
be overtaken by events. Certain portions of this book will, no doubt, miss
the mark as well.
But all of these problems notwithstanding, it is imperative to undertake
this analysis as best one can even before everything crystallizes. Crucial
policy decisions are being made all the time about the future of European
security (for example, the serious prospect for proliferation of nuclear,
chemical, and conventional weapons from a dismembered Soviet Union).
To wait until the returns are in may be academically sound - but it is
morally dubious. It is important, therefore, for the attentive public to be
aware of important trends and debates about the future of European security
even if no one can say for certain exactly which of these projections will
prevail. That is what this book attempts to do.
ix
Acknowledgments
I bave accumulated many intellectual and moral debts in the long process of
editing and re-editing this manuscript over the past three years. Obviously,
the contributors to the volume are central; their patience in writing and
rewriting their chapters, as events in Europe continued to change, is
greatly appreciated. In addition to those chapters which made it into this
final edition there were a number of contributors whose chapters were
eliminated - not because of the quality of their work-but simply because
their chapters were overtaken by events. This list includes such promi
nent scholars and policy-makers as Dr. Ralph Hallenbeck, Dr. Catherine
Kelleher, Ambassador Lynn Hansen, General Andrew Goodpaster, Mr.
David Beachley, Mr. Simon Lunn, Dr. Michael MccGwire, Dr. George
Quester, Dr. Itshak Lederman, Mr. Berger Bergesen, and Ms. Jane Sharp.
I can only hope that the friendships I have with many of these people will
not be strained. Hopefully, they can take comfort in the fact that they are in
eminent company. I also owe a special debt of gratitude to Simon Winder,
my supervising editor at St Martin's Press, who continued to support the
project even though it was delayed time and time again in my efforts to
make '1ust one more revision."
Throughout the process, I received very helpful comments and insights
from Jim Blaker, Ken Colucci, Jonathan Dean, Ivo Daalder, Steve
Flanagan, Jim Goodby, Sandy Hallenbeck, Lynn Hansen, Catherine
Kelleher, Stan Sloan, Jennone Walker, and Phil Williams-to name only the
key individuals. I also want to thank the virtual legion of students, graduate
and undergraduate, who have provided help with typing, stylistic editing,
and miscellaneous errands. Unfortunately, since this project continued over
the space of three years there were simply too many students involved to list
all of their names; though their contribution was key. Robert Lantzy, Berger
Bergesen, and Tim Wineland deserve special mention for their repeated
assistance and substantive input. Robert Lantzy's research contributions
were so critical that his "Bio'' bas been included. I acknowledge the grant
that I received from Columbian College, George Washington University,
that helped to defray some of the costs of this project Finally, I want
to thank Nancy Lynn Peplinsky and Joseph Blecker for moral support,
friendship, and insightful comments during this protracted project. I wish
them well in their lives.
Intellectually, I owe the greatest debt to my mentors, Steve Baker, Jack
Levy, and Alexander George. Steve Baker awakened my first interest in
X
Acknowledgments xi
arms control and internal security affairs. Jack Levy provided perhaps
the most thorough course in International Conftict Theory any graduate
student could hope to encounter. Alexander George has inspired me in
more ways professionally and personally than I could begin to recount;
perhaps most important of which is his life-long dedication to the utility of
"policy-relevant" theory. Alex taught me that academics and policy-makers
have something to offer each other; that without insight from both perspec
tives, the picture is incomplete. Hopefully, some of the analysis in this text
will contribute to "policy-relevant" theory.
