The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD

143 Pages·2012·4.934 MB·English

by  Kevin F. Hanrahan, Trevor Donnellan, Emil Erjavec (auth.), Frédéric Chantreuil, Kevin Hanrahan, Myrna van Leeuwen (eds.)

The Future of EU Agricultural Markets
by AGMEMOD

Frédéric Chantreuil (cid:129) Kevin F. Hanrahan
Myrna van Leeuwen
Editors
The Future of EU
Agricultural Markets
by AGMEMOD
Editors
Dr. Frédéric Chantreuil Dr. Kevin F. Hanrahan
Université de Caen Basse Normandie Teagasc
UFR Sciences Economiques et Gestion Rural Economy Development Programme
17 rue Claude Bloch, BP 5186, Agricultural Economics and Farm Survey
F-14032 Caen Cedex Department
France Athenry
[email protected] Galway
Ireland
Myrna van Leeuwen [email protected]
Research Area International Policy
LEI Wageningen UR
Alexanderveld 5
2585 DB The Hague
The Netherlands
[email protected]
Files, programs and tools of the AGMEMOD 4.0 version are available for download at
Springer’s Extra Materials website: http://extras.springer.com/
ISBN 978-94-007-2290-3 e-ISBN 978-94-007-2291-0
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2291-0
Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011940680
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfi lming, recording or otherwise, without written
permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifi cally for the purpose
of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
Printed on acid-free paper
Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the members of the AGMEMOD Advisory Group –
Loek Boonekamp (OECD), Lauri Kettunen (MTT), Hans-Jörg Lutzeyer (European
Commission-DG RTD), Wolfgang Münch (European Commission-DG AGRI),
Emilio Rossi (Global Insight), Patrick Westhoff (FAPRI at the University of
Missouri) – for the fruitful comments, suggestions and advice they have provided to
the Partnership since the foundation of the AGMEMOD project.
The authors would like to thank the Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies (IPTS ) and DG RTD for their support and assistance in jointly organising
validation workshops hosted at IPTS Seville and at DG AGRI Brussels. We would
like to thank representatives of DG AGRI, DG JRC, DG RTD, FAPRI, OECD, FAO,
University of Bonn, University of Gottingen and University of Aberdeen for the
helpful criticisms, remarks and suggestions they made concerning the AGMEMOD
results that were presented during these workshops.
Any opinions and fi ndings, conclusions, suggestions or recommendations
expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessary refl ect the view
of European Commission Services or Research Institutes and Universities who are
supporting the AGMEMOD Partnership.
F. Chantreuil
K.F. Hanrahan
M. van Leeuwen
v

Contents
Part I
1 Background ............................................................................................... 7
Kevin F. Hanrahan, Trevor Donnellan, and Emil Erjavec
2 Model Structure and Parameterisation .................................................. 21
Roberto Esposti, Guna Salputra, Frédéric Chantreuil,
Kevin F. Hanrahan, Petra Salamon, and Andrzej Tabeau
3 AGMEMOD Model ................................................................................... 45
Myrna van Leeuwen, Foppe Bouma, Frédéric Chantreuil, Wietse Dol,
Emil Erjavec, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra
Part II
4 EU Market Outlook .................................................................................. 77
Trevor Donnellan, Frédéric Chantreuil, Emil Erjavec,
Roberto Esposti, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Myrna van Leeuwen,
Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra
5 The CAP Beyond 2013 .............................................................................. 97
Emil Erjavec, Frédéric Chantreuil, Trevor Donnellan,
Roberto Esposti, Kevin F. Hanrahan, Myrna van Leeuwen,
Petra Salamon, and Guna Salputra
6 Conclusions and Future Work ................................................................. 119
Frédéric Chantreuil, Kevin F. Hanrahan, and Myrna van Leeuwen
Glossary ........................................................................................................... 123
Authors and Contributors .............................................................................. 125
Index ................................................................................................................. 127
vii

AGMEMOD Partnership
Universität für Bodenkultur Wien Martin Kniepert,
Markus Hofreither
Université Catholique de Louvain Bruno Henry de Frahan,
Henrich Brunke
Institute of Agriculture Economics Nedka Ivanova,
Plamen Mishev,
Mariya Peneva
Institute of Agricultural Ivan Foltyn,
Economics and Information Jan Kubat,
Ida Zednickova
Food and Resource Economic Institute Jørgen D. Jensen,
Lars-Bo Jacobsen
Institute of Economics and Social Mati Sepp,
Sciences Tönu Akkel
Estonian Agricultural University
MTT Agrifood Research Finland Jyrki Niemi,
Heikki Lehtonen,
Lauri Kettunen
Institut National de la Frédéric Chantreuil,
Recherche Agronomique Marie-Dominique Le Barbenchon,
Fabrice Levert
Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Petra Salamon,
Federal Research Institute for Rural Oliver von Ledebur
Areas, Forestry and Fisheries
Department of Economics, George Mergos,
University of Athens Anastasios Portokalakis,
Elias Mantzouneas
Corvinus University of Budapest Tibor Ferenczi,
Tibor Varga
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