The Future of Decision Making: How Revolutionary Software Can Improve the Ability to Decide

223 Pages·2010·1.64 MB·English

by  Roger C. Schank

Additional Praise for The Future of
Decision Making
“The authors start from some essential truths about cognition. By combining them
with a solid grasp of business realities and software possibilities they are able to
describe a realistic future in which machines promote the sharing of human
wisdom.”
—Eric Domeshek, AI Project Manager, Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.
“These authors have converged to produce a forward-looking book that is as un-
hidebound as the methods they are preaching.”
—William K. Purves, Professor Emeritus of Biology, Harvey Mudd College
“Decision making is complex, and facts and figures are important, but common
sense is even more important. We most often have to make decisions in circum-
stances when facts and figures are inadequate. This book is an insightful account of
how to reintroduce common sense into decision making tools.”
—Lawrence Howell, CEO of EFG International Private Bank
“Roger Schank is the right person with the right skills to talk about decision making,
about how the mind works and how to develop new technologies to make it work
better.”
—Sebastián Barajas Caseny, Founder, LearningWorks
“Roger Schank has been pushing the edge of cognitive science for many years. As a
co-founder of the Cognitive Science Society and a pioneer and visionary in the field,
his concepts change the way organizations think about the choices they face.”
—Arthur Stern, CEO, Global Prime
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The Future of Decision Making
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T F D M
HE UTURE OF ECISION AKING
H R S C
OW EVOLUTIONARY OFTWARE AN
I A D
MPROVE THE BILITY TO ECIDE
ROGER C. SCHANK, DIMITRIS LYRAS, AND
ELLIOT SOLOWAY
THE FUTURE OF DECISION MAKING
Copyright © Roger C. Schank, Dimitris Lyras, and Elliot Soloway, 2010.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-10365-8
All rights reserved.
First published in 2010 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN®
in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world,
this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-28801-4 ISBN 978-0-230-11039-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230110397
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Schank, Roger C., 1946–
The future of decision making : how revolutionary software can
improve the ability to decide / Roger C. Schank, Dimitris Lyras, and Elliot
Soloway.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-349-28801-4
1. Decision making. 2. Technological innovations. I. Lyras, Dimitris. II.
Soloway, Elliot. III. Title.
HD30.23.S296 2010
658.4(cid:1)03—dc22 2010007918
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: August 2010
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Introduction 1
Section I A New Decision-Making Model
1 Don’t Follow the Rules, But Do Embrace
Case-Based Reasoning 21
2 W hy It Matters: Greater Productivity,
Profit, and Purpose 41
3 Software Based on the Science of Decision Making:
Tools Organizations Can Use 59
Section II The Software Argument
4 S tart with Activity Maps, Proverbs, and Goal Conflicts:
Creating Software That Functions
the Way the Mind Works 87
5 Identify the Experts and Gather Their Stories 107
6 Finding Information versus the Information Finding You 125
7 Decision-Making Training: More Experience
through Software 147
viii CONTENTS
Section III Implementation
8 The Human Factor: Achieving True Usability 167
9 Obstacles and Opportunities: How Organizations
Can put Cognitive Systems into Practice 189
Index 211
The Future of Decision Making